International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews anecdotal evidence on labor market conditions and discusses policy options to strengthen the labor market and support growth in St. Kitts and Nevis. The diagnosis of labor market conditions reveals challenges and opportunities in wages, productivity, and labor allocation across sectors. These include strengthening jobs and growth opportunities across sectors, enhancing the wage setting system to support competitiveness, and increasing the efficiency of the public sector. Strong institutions are needed to effectively manage public sector wages over the medium term. Several institutional arrangements can facilitate this goal including regular comparison between public and private sector wages, regular wage negotiations as opposed to ad hoc adjustments, and using medium-term wage bill forecasting to support better fiscal outcomes. Labor market and growth policies could play a key role in strengthening jobs and growth in the post-coronavirus disease era, including by leveraging sectoral linkages to provide more diversified and higher quality job opportunities, enhancing labor market policies, and increasing the efficiency of the public sector.
Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.