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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover Technical Assistance Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-Improving Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (August 29–September 8, 2023)
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
A joint CARTAC, IMF capacity development engagement with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in the Ministry of Finance in Dominica to improve estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was undertaken. The capacity development focused on three main aspects: supporting improvements of the GDP series in line with the 2008 SNA standards, including training for re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP; identifying data holdings which could be used to improve the quality of the estimates; and developing a work program for improving the timeliness of macroeconomic statistics in Dominica. Administrative data including value added tax data was used to compliment survey based estimates to enhance the current price estimates of GDP. To identify potential other data sources, meetings with various government stakeholders took place to discuss accessibility of data to continue to improve the quality of the macroeconomic estimates in the future. In addition to re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP to 2018 prices (from the existing 2006 base year), refinements to the GDP compilation system were developed to increase the capacity development of the staff to maintain and update the compilation of macroeconomic statistics in the future.
Keywords:
GDP; Administrative Data; Value Added Tax; Re-Referencing; SNA; Dominica.; IMF's statistics department; Dominica export import agency; IMF executive directors; business processing documentation; CSO in the Ministry of Finance; Value-added tax; Civil society organizations; Agricultural sector; Agricultural exports; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Technical Assistance Report-External Sector Statistics
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Dominica focuses on external sector statistics. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank (ECCB) and the Central Statistics Office have implemented recommendations from the previous mission regarding timeliness and data accessibility. The mission focused on improving data sources for travel credits and the Citizenship by Investment Program (CBI) flows for the balance of payments. Revised 2022 balance of payments estimates were reviewed; additional refinement is needed. The ECCB has been incorporating available cash-based data on CBI flows from the fiscal sector into the balance of payments. However, fiscal data for 2021 and 2022 show some possible misclassifications that would affect the correct recording of external flows in the balance of payments. The report highlights that follow-up on the request made to the CBI to complete the ECCB balance of payments questionnaires for 2021 and 2022 and report on the existence of foreign escrow accounts. Coordination between data-producing agencies needs to be improved. A survey of cruise passengers is required to improve the estimates of visitor expenditure; visitors that arrive by yatchs are not surveyed either.
Keywords:
Dominica; balance of payments statistics.; balance of payments statement; balance of payments estimate; business visitor; VES result; visitor expenditure questionnaire; ECCB website; Civil society organizations; External sector statistics; International investment position; Credit; Caribbean
Cover Selected Issues Papers
Unlocking Tourism Potential for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Dominica
Mr. Yibin Mu
,
Sinem Kiliç Çelik
, and
Archit Singhal
Tourism is an important driver of Dominica’s economy. The damage of the pandemic on Dominica’s tourism sector was severer than in most regional peers, and the recovery has also been much slower, mostly due to the timing of lockdown restrictions. This paper reviews the tourism sector landscape in Dominica, assesses its recent performance relative to peers, and analyzes the main determinants and constraints for tourism development. Our econometric analysis shows that flight connectivity and demand variables play the most significant role in explaining tourism developments, while natural disasters can have negative lasting significant impacts. This calls for improving infrastructure and enhancing resilience.
Keywords:
Island economy; tourism; Caribbean states; tourism sector; tourism development; Dominica's economy; demand variable; stringency index; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Inclusive growth; Income; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the tourism sector landscape in Dominica, assesses its recent performance relative to peers, and analyzes the main determinants and constraints for tourism development. Tourism plays a vital role in Dominica’s economy. It contributes significantly to growth, employment, and exports. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had a significant impact on Dominica’s tourism sector, and the recovery has been slower compared to peers. While the drop in tourist arrivals in Dominica was similar to regional peers, the recovery has been much slower. The underperformance appeared mainly explained by the costs of stay and timing of lockdown restrictions. The econometric analysis shows that flight connectivity and demand variables play the most significant role in explaining tourism developments, while natural disasters can have negative lasting significant impacts. This calls for improving infrastructure and enhancing resilience. Furthermore, countries can enhance competitiveness and reduce vulnerabilities by investing in the expansion of skilled labor supply for the sector and diversifying product offers.
Keywords:
tourism sector landscape; tourism recovery; market source; tourism flow; Yibin mu; Tourism; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Income; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Kitts and Nevis
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Growth decelerated marginally in 2017, as the continued decline in CBI inflows slowed growth in construction. Consumer inflation was low, partly due to a small contraction in food prices. The overall fiscal balance remained in surplus but has deteriorated markedly since its 2013- peak, and the debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally from the previous year. The current account deficit remains high and only marginally declined in 2017, as the decline in CBI receipts was more than offset by growing tourism receipts and a significant decrease in imports. Foreign reserves at the ECCB remained at comfortable levels, well above the various reserve-adequacy metrics. The banking sector has reported capital and liquidity ratios that are well above the regulatory minimum but has elevated NPLs and risks, including delays in completing the debt-land swap arrangement and loss of Corresponding Banking Relationships (CBRs).
Keywords:
SKN government; SKN economy; CBI program; NPL resolution strategy; due diligence; Commercial banks; Public sector; Government finance statistics; Credit; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
moment Calibration summary; income distribution implication; building RESILIENCE; shadow economy estimate; B. General model description; fiscal policy experiment; Corporate income tax; Informal economy; Personal income tax; Consumption; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock
Vivian Parlak
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Keywords:
FDI windfall; passport sale; ECCU economy; shocks lead; tourism shock; Oil prices; Tourism; Foreign direct investment; Current account balance; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2021 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The fallout from the COVID-19 crisis is hitting ECCU economies hard. Tourism receipts (accounting for nearly 40 percent of GDP) have dried up, as tourist arrivals have come to a grinding halt. The authorities successfully contained the spread of the virus at the onset of the pandemic by largely closing the borders, but a reopening of the economies since the summer has led to a surge in COVID cases. The ECCU economy is projected to contract by 16 percent in 2020 and by a further near ½ percent in 2021. Fiscal positions have deteriorated sharply, and public debt is projected to reach near 90 percent of GDP in 2021 and remain at an elevated level for years to come. Headline indicators suggest the financial system is relatively sound with ample liquidity buffers, but nonperforming loans are expected to rise significantly. The outlook is clouded by exceptionally high risks, including from the uncertainty concerning the evolution of the pandemic.
Keywords:
ECCU economy; ECCU member states; ECCU country; ECCU price aggregate; headline indicator; COVID-19; Loans; Nonperforming loans; Tourism; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Lucia: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses St. Lucia’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility. IMF financing support provides resources to the countries’ authorities for essential health-related expenditures and income support to ease the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 on the population. In order to address the pandemic, the authorities announced measures to help employees and households, including income support to the unemployed, tax relief, and providing cash transfers to the most vulnerable and affected. The countries’ governments have responded to the pandemic by swiftly implementing containment measures, allocating scarce budgetary resources to critical health care spending, and introducing income support to the most affected sectors and households. Protection of the financial system will help cushion the economic impact of the pandemic. Measures have also been taken by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank to facilitate the provision of credit and safeguard financial stability. The IMF will continue to be engaged with Dominica, Grenada, and St. Lucia, and stands ready to provide policy advice and further support as needed.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF financing support; financing; GDP; income support; IMF support; financing needs; construction expenditure; Executive Board discussion; IMF emergency support; COVID-19; Tourism; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World: A GVAR Model Approach
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
and
Daniela Hess
Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; oil price drop; ECCU country; GVAR model; ECCU economy; shock equivalent; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Oil; Tourism; Imports; Caribbean; Global