Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Topic

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Western Hemisphere > Dominica

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 29 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • IMF Working Papers x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on a Nowcast
Mr. Sam Ouliaris
and
Ms. Celine Rochon
Nowcasting enables policymakers to obtain forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using higher frequency data, resulting in more timely information to guide proposed policy changes. A significant shortcoming of nowcasting estimators is their “reduced-form” nature, which means they cannot be used to assess the impact of policy changes, for example, on the baseline nowcast of real GDP. This paper outlines two separate methodologies to address this problem. The first is a partial equilibrium approach that uses an existing baseline nowcasting regression and single-equation forecasting models for the high-frequency data in that regression. The second approach uses a non-parametric structural VAR estimator recently introduced in Ouliaris and Pagan (2022) that imposes minimal identifying restrictions on the data to estimate the impact of structural shocks. Each approach is illustrated using a country-specific example.
Keywords:
Nowcasting; high frequency indicators; impulse responses; structural models; frequency data; Real GDP of Dominica; year-on-year percentage; baseline Nowcasting regression; USA real GDP; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Structural vector autoregression; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach
Emilio Fernández Corugedo
,
Andres Gonzalez
, and
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets, financial frictions with collateral constraints, foreign remittances, full menu of tax and government spending instruments, and endogenous climate risk premium. The model is calibrated to the case of Dominica. It finds that NDs have large and persistent negative effects on output and public finances. It also shows that adaptation investment has large returns in terms of private investment, employment, output and tax revenue in the long term, especially under climate change.
Keywords:
natural disasters; climate change; DSGE; resilient capital; financial frictions; Dominica; climate adaptation policies; adaptation investment; investment producer; government spending instrument; endogenous climate risk premium; ND event; moment calibration summary; Consumption; Return on investment; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Waiting for Godot? The Case for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Small Island States
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
Keywords:
Climate change; decarbanization; energy efficiency; mitigation; adaptation; carbon tax; green financing; climate change mitigation; risk-reward perspective; Island state; adaptation strategy; climate change adaptation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth at Risk from Natural Disasters
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
,
Mr. Saad N Quayyum
, and
Sibabrata Das
The paper analyzes the impact of natural disasters on per-capita GDP growth. Using a quantile regressions and growth-at-risk approach, the paper examines the impact of disasters and policy choices on the distribution of growth rather than simply its average. We find that countries that have in place disaster preparedness mechanisms and lower public debt have lower probability of witnessing a significant drop in growth as a consequence of a natural disaster, but our innovative methodology in this paper finds that the two policies are complements since their effectiveness vary across different disaster scenarios. While both are helpful for small to mid-size disasters, lower debt—and hence more fiscal space—is more beneficial in the face of very large disasters. A balanced strategy would thus involve both policies.
Keywords:
disaster preparedness; impact of disaster; quantile regression; impact of natural disaster; regression estimator; Natural disasters; Fiscal space; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating the Impact of External Shocks on the ECCU: Application to the COVID Shock
Vivian Parlak
,
Mr. Gonzalo Salinas
, and
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
We measure the impact of frequent exogeneous shocks on small ECCU economies, including changes to global economic activity, tourism flows, oil prices, passport sales, FDI, and natural disasters. Using Canonical-Correlation Analysis (CCA) and dynamic panel regression analysis we find significant effects of most of these shocks on output, while only fluctuations in oil prices have significant effects on inflation. Results also suggest a significant impact of FDI and passport sales on the external balance, a link that CCA identifies as the strongest among all analyzed relations. The model also shows how Covid-19 related shocks lead to substantial contractions in output in all ECCU countries and deterioration of the current account balance in most of them, depending on countries’ tourism dependency.
Keywords:
FDI windfall; passport sale; ECCU economy; shocks lead; tourism shock; Oil prices; Tourism; Foreign direct investment; Current account balance; Natural disasters; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Insurance Against Natural Disasters: An Application to the ECCU
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
This paper estimates insurance requirements against natural disasters (NDs) in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) using an insurance layering framework. The layers include a government saving fund, as well as market instruments. Each layer is calibrated to cover estimated fiscal cost of NDs according to intensity and expected damage. The results indicate that ECCU countries could target saving fund stocks for relativelly smaller and more frequent events in the range of 6-12 percent of GDP, enough to cover 95 percent of NDs’ fiscal costs. To ensure financially-sustainable saving funds with a low probability of depletion, this requires annual budget savings in the range os 0.5 to 1.9 percent of GDP per year. Additional coverage could be obtained with market instruments for large and less frequent events, albeit at a significant cost.The results are based on a Monte-Carlo experiment that simulates natural disaster shocks and their impact on output and government finances.
Keywords:
ECCU; fiscal cycles; Monte Carlo experiment; debt sustainability.; WP; SF stock; ECCU country; CCRIF payout; financing flow; annual budget; cost composition; insurance cost; Natural disasters; debt sustainability; payout amount; rate of return; Insurance; Standing facilities; Stocks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Strengthening Public Investment Management in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Getting more bang for the dollar!
Mr. A. E. Wayne Mitchell
,
Ann Marie Wickham
, and
Mr. Manuel Rosales Torres
The quality and stock of infrastructure vary widely across countries of the Eastern Carribbean Currency Union and are inadequate to achieve the desired higher growth and social development. Given relatively low investment rates in the region, one solution is to invest more. However this paper shows that governments can also narrow their infrastructure and service gaps significantly by improving expenditure efficiency and strengthening public investment management systems.
Keywords:
WP; investment; ECCU country; cost; physical capital; ECCU member government; efficiency gap; investment planning; private sector; ICT system; government spending; ECCU member country; Infrastructure; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public investment spending; Capital spending; Caribbean; Expenditure Efficiency; Public Investment Management
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Caribbean and its Linkages with the World: A GVAR Model Approach
Mr. Mauricio Vargas
and
Daniela Hess
Using data from 1980-2017, this paper estimates a Global VAR (GVAR) model taylored for the Caribbean region which includes its major trading partners, representing altogether around 60 percent of the global economy. We provide stilyzed facts of the main interrelations between the Caribbean region and the rest of the world, and then we quantify the impact of external shocks on Caribbean countries through the application of two case studies: i) a change in the international price of oil, and ii) an increase in the U.S. GDP. We confirmed that Caribbean countries are highly exposed to external factors, and that a fall in oil prices and an increase in the U.S. GDP have a positive and large impact on most of them after controlling for financial variables, exchange rate fluctuations and overall price changes. The results from the model help to disentangle effects from various channels that interact at the same time, such as flows of tourists, trade of goods, and changes in economic conditions in the largest economies of the globe.
Keywords:
WP; exchange rate; oil price drop; ECCU country; GVAR model; ECCU economy; shock equivalent; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Oil; Tourism; Imports; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Government Wage Bill Management and Civil Service Reform in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
Mr. A. E. Wayne Mitchell
,
Ronald James
, and
Ann Marie Wickham
In this study, we assess the size of the government wage bill and employment in the member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union and their implications for fiscal sustainability and the adequacy of public service delivery. Over the period 2005 to 2015 their wage bill (as a percentage of GDP, government revenues and expenditures) is higher than in other small states notwithstanding recent efforts by governments to make it more manageable. The composition and distribution of employment is sub-optimal and is reflected in skills mismatches contributing to inefficiencies in public service delivery. Using a dynamic fixed-effects panel, we find that wage bill growth reflects the expansion of government activities to speed up economic and social development and that wage bill spending is procyclical in good times but is rigid during downturns. Finally, we identify the main institutional and legal reforms needed to improve wage bill management and public service efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; wage bill; bill management; bill indicator; bill spending; grid structure; IMF wage database; Public Wage Bill; Fiscal Sustainability; Employment; Institutional Reforms; ECCU; government wage growth; base wage; progression system; government employment; Wages; Public employment; Government wage bill; Wage adjustments; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Bank Network Analysis in the ECCU
Mr. Balazs Csonto
,
Mr. Alejandro D Guerson
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
, and
Emefa Sewordor
This paper applies network analysis to assess the extent of systemic vulnerabilities in the ECCU banking system. It includes two sets of illustrative stress tests. First, solvency and liquidity shocks to each individual bank and the impact on other banks in the network through their biltareal net asset exposures. Second, country and region-wide tail shocks to GDP affecting capital and liquidity of all banks in the shocked jurisdictions, followed by the rippling effects through the regional network. The results identify systemic institutions that merit hightened attention by the regulator, as determined by the degree of connectivity with the rest of the system, and the extent to which they are vulnerable to the failure of other banks.
Keywords:
WP; bank; ECCU; capital; asset; incorporated bank; F34; G21; ECCU bank; bank capital; defaulted claim; liquidity holding; portfolios diversification opportunity; bank exposure; bank institution; creditor bank; remains high; bank assets; bank network analysis; Commercial banks; Nonperforming loans; Distressed institutions; Credit; Market risk; Global