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A technical assistance (TA) mission on external sector statistics (ESS) was conducted to the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of Dominica as part of the Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) work program on ESS. The mission focused on addressing data gaps and improving statistical techniques for travel exports and direct investment to enhance the accuracy of the balance of payments (BOP) and the international investment position (IIP) and reduce net errors and omissions. In addition, the revised 2023 BOP that will be disseminated in December 2023 was reviewed.
1. Dominica’s narrow economic base, exposure to NDs, and reliance on CBI flows leave it vulnerable to shocks while limited fiscal space constrains development plans. Policy responses to repeated shocks since 2015 have depleted fiscal buffers, as reflected by a 43½ percentage point increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio at the pandemic peak. Fallout from the pandemic and subsequent supply shocks have partially delayed implementation of self-insurance initiatives elaborated in Dominica's Disaster Resilience Strategy (DRS). On balance, limited fiscal space constrains development plans, which are currently heavily reliant on CBI inflows to complete potentially transformational infrastructure projects. The entrenched economic recovery provides an opportunity to rebuild fiscal buffers consistent with Dominica's fiscal rule and the broader ECCU regional debt target, while prioritizing reforms to enhance resilient and inclusive growth.
DOMINICA
DOMINICA
On behalf of our Dominican authorities, we thank Mr. Christopher Faircloth and his team for the constructive engagement during the Article IV consultations. Our authorities value staff’s advice and broadly concur with the thrust of the appraisal and policy recommendations.
A joint CARTAC, IMF capacity development engagement with the Central Statistics Office (CSO) in the Ministry of Finance in Dominica to improve estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was undertaken. The capacity development focused on three main aspects: supporting improvements of the GDP series in line with the 2008 SNA standards, including training for re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP; identifying data holdings which could be used to improve the quality of the estimates; and developing a work program for improving the timeliness of macroeconomic statistics in Dominica. Administrative data including value added tax data was used to compliment survey based estimates to enhance the current price estimates of GDP. To identify potential other data sources, meetings with various government stakeholders took place to discuss accessibility of data to continue to improve the quality of the macroeconomic estimates in the future. In addition to re-referencing the volume estimates of GDP to 2018 prices (from the existing 2006 base year), refinements to the GDP compilation system were developed to increase the capacity development of the staff to maintain and update the compilation of macroeconomic statistics in the future.