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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents a proposal for the creation of savings funds (SF) for rehabilitation and reconstruction after natural disasters (ND) in Dominica. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to calibrate the size of the SF, based on the distribution of ND fiscal shocks estimated from an empirical fiscal model. ND shocks are identified by controlling for other major sources of shock affecting the cyclical fluctuations of output, and government revenue and expenditure, and by calibrating the probability of ND consistent with their historical frequency. It is concluded that under the parameter calibrations proposed, the SF would be financially sustainable with a low probability of depletion.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; credit union; Dominica; tropical cyclone; tropical cyclone damage; deposit; climate change cost; estimating hurricane; tropical cyclone disaster; credit union sector; Credit bureaus; Natural disasters; Standing facilities; Commercial banks; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the Dominican economy was hit hard by tropical storm Erika in 2015. Agricultural output and manufacturing declined sharply, as the storm affected crops and access to arable land, and prompted the closure of operations of the main industrial plant. Inflation has remained subdued, mainly as a result of falling fuel prices. Notwithstanding weak exports of agriculture and tourism, the 2015 current account deficit remained contained on the back of lower oil imports. Output growth is expected to remain subdued in 2016 at 1.3 percent as the economy slowly recovers from the storm and investment in reconstruction picks up.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; ECP revenue; financing constraint; authority; ECP; expenditure projection; budget proposal; budget projection; Fiscal consolidation; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Caribbean
Cover Policy Papers
Small States Resilience to Natural Disasters and Climate Change - Role for the IMF
International Monetary Fund
Small developing states are disproportionately vulnerable to natural disasters. On average, the annual cost of disasters for small states is nearly 2 percent of GDP—more than four times that for larger countries. This reflects a higher frequency of disasters, adjusted for land area, as well as greater vulnerability to severe disasters. About 9 percent of disasters in small states involve damage of more than 30 percent of GDP, compared to less than 1 percent for larger states. Greater exposure to disasters has important macroeconomic effects on small states, resulting in lower investment, lower GDP per capita, higher poverty, and a more volatile revenue base.
Keywords:
PP; climate change financing; contingent financing arrangement; disaster risk financing tool kit; financing needs; Fund emergency financing; low income; Fund financing; balance of payments; disaster financing approach; debt management; central bank; B. risk financing toolkit; Natural disasters; Climate change; Climate finance; Disaster aid; Insurance; Global; Pacific Islands; Caribbean; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Lucia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
A moderate economic recovery is taking hold in St. Lucia. Favorable international conditions have contributed to improved demand for tourism, St. Lucia’s main economic sector, and the external current account deficit has narrowed significantly. The authorities have made some progress in addressing a weak fiscal position. However, the financial sector continues to be impaired by nonperforming loans, public debt keeps rising, and unemployment remains very high, while external sector competitiveness continues to be weakened by an overvalued exchange rate, economies of scale disadvantages, and structural bottlenecks.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tourism inflow; balance of payments; private sector; fiscal year; economic activity; debt target; reform agenda; youth unemployment; excess reserves; growth prospect; Capital spending; Fiscal stance; Natural disasters; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; for Dominica
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses Dominica’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). Tropical Storm Erika had a devastating effect on Dominica’s economy. Total damage and loss is estimated at 96 percent of GDP. Real GDP is projected to decline by 3 percent in 2015, and reconstruction expenditures and the impact on agriculture and tourism activities are putting pressure on the fiscal and external accounts. Despite the high capital expenditures, the 2015 budget deficit will be contained to 2.4 percent of GDP reflecting strong grants, and the current account balance could deteriorate to a deficit of about 15 percent of GDP. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for a disbursement under the RCF.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; balance of payments position; fiscal policy framework; RCF financing; balance of payments difficulty; market price; IMF staff estimate; Capital spending; Credit; Public sector; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: 2015 Article IV Consultation-First Post-Program Monitoring Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economic situation of St. Kitts and Nevis has continued to improve since the completion of the IMF-supported home-grown economic program in July 2014. Continued rapid inflows under the Citizenship-By Investment program have led to a surge in construction activity, and supported a large increase in government and Sugar Industry Diversification Fund investments and spending, including on the People Employment Program. These factors, together with the ongoing recovery in tourist arrivals fueled rapid GDP growth of about 6 percent in 2013 and 2014. The near-term outlook remains strong, but there are risks on the horizon.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; CBI inflow; one-off corporate tax settlement; reform; inflow; CBI program; income tax tax collection; national assembly; Public sector; Credit; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Too Much of a Good Thing? Prudent Management of Inflows under Economic Citizenship Programs
Ms. Xin C Xu
,
Ahmed El-Ashram
, and
Judith Gold
Economic Citizenship Programs (ECPs) have recently been proliferating, with large and potentially volatile inflows of investment and fiscal revenues generating significant benefits for small economies, but also posing substantial challenges. This paper discusses recent developments and implications of such programs for fiscal discipline and the real economy, including risks to macroeconomic and financial stability, with a focus on small state economies. It discusses the prudent management of these programs, overviews strategies to minimize risks to various sectors, and addresses potential governance and integrity challenges. The paper proposes a framework for managing inflows and savings from ECPs to contain macroeconomic risks, and it recommends the establishment of a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) where such revenues are large and persistent.
Keywords:
WP; ECP inflow; central bank; country authorities; management framework; ECP country; ECP flow; ECP receipt; ECP resource; private sector; Economic Citizenship Programs; Citizenship-by-Investment; Economic Residency Programs; Immigrant Investor Programs; Golden Visa; Sovereign Wealth Fund (SWF); National Development Funds; Macroeconomic Stability; Dutch Disease; St. Kitts and Nevis; Pacific Island Countries; investment strategy; SWF investment; stabilization fund; Public investment spending; Fiscal stance; Global; Pacific Islands; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
KEY ISSUES Background: Activity is slowly recovering after a cumulative decline of about 5 percent during 2008–10. Expansionary fiscal policies—largely to counteract the impact of the global slowdown and the two successive natural disasters—led to a deterioration in fiscal balances, with public debt up by about 10½ percent of GDP over this period. The fiscal deficit, however, is expected to narrow this year, largely reflecting cuts in capital spending. In the financial sector, non performing loans remain above prudential guidelines; provisioning and profitability are low; and supervision remains weak. Policy Challenges: Further fiscal consolidation—including by rebalancing government expenditure toward growth and employment generating public sector projects—is required to ensure medium-term sustained growth as well as keep public sector debt on a downward trajectory. In this regard, improving the efficiency of revenue collection and reducing current spending—especially on the wage bill, which is high relative to revenues—will be crucial to allow the government to maneuver fiscal policy. Financial sector weaknesses also need to be addressed, including through strengthening of supervisory and regulatory standards, to promote effective financial intermediation that supports private sector growth. Structural reforms, including infrastructure enhancements and labor market reforms are critical to improve competitiveness and ensure medium-term growth and current account sustainability.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; current account; debt; deficit; real GDP; private sector credit growth; debt service; broad money; flows shock; economy of St. Vincent and the Grenadines; Financial sector; Capital spending; Caribbean; Global; North America; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Kitts and Nevis: Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation and the Seventh and Eighth Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criterion
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper elaborates 2014 Article IV Consultation, Seventh and Eight Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement (SBA), and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Non-Observance of Performance Criterion for St. Kitts and Nevis. The discussions focus on strategies to secure sustainable growth through enhancing tourism, developing cost-effective energy sources, and improving the business environment. It states that the authorities’ commitment to their program is reflected in the 2014 budget, and their plans to save the bulk of the Citizenship by Investment (CBI) application fees.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; St. Kitts and Nevis authorities; IMF quota; authority; amount; CBI inflow; CBI revenue; CBI receipts; Fiscal stance; Credit; Caribbean
Cover The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union
The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union
Macroeconomics and Financial Systems
Mr. Alfred Schipke
,
Aliona Cebotari
, and
Ms. Nita Thacker

Abstract

The Eastern Caribbean Economic and Currency Union (OECS/ECCU) is one of four currency unions in the world. As in other parts of the world in the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis, the region is at a crossroads, facing the major challenges of creating jobs, making growth more inclusive, reforming the banking system, and managing volatility, while grappling with high public debt and persistent low economic growth. Policymakers have the critical task of implementing strong reforms to strengthen the monetary union while also laying the foundation for accelerating growth. This Handbook provides a comprehensive analysis of the key issues in the OECS/ECCU, including its organization and economic and financial sector linkages, and provides policy recommendations to foster economic growth.

Keywords:
BOOK; ECCU country; ECCU; OECS; ECCU economy; ECCU member; banking sector; financial crisis; Credit bureaus; Debt restructuring; Caribbean; Global; Central America; Europe; Western Hemisphere; ECCU government; ECCU authorities; South America