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Western Hemisphere > Dominica

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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Unlocking Tourism Potential for Sustainable and Inclusive Growth in Dominica
Mr. Yibin Mu, Sinem Kiliç Çelik, and Archit Singhal
Tourism is an important driver of Dominica’s economy. The damage of the pandemic on Dominica’s tourism sector was severer than in most regional peers, and the recovery has also been much slower, mostly due to the timing of lockdown restrictions. This paper reviews the tourism sector landscape in Dominica, assesses its recent performance relative to peers, and analyzes the main determinants and constraints for tourism development. Our econometric analysis shows that flight connectivity and demand variables play the most significant role in explaining tourism developments, while natural disasters can have negative lasting significant impacts. This calls for improving infrastructure and enhancing resilience.
Keywords:
Island economy; tourism; Caribbean states; tourism sector; tourism development; Dominica's economy; demand variable; stringency index; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Inclusive growth; Income; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Policy Changes on a Nowcast
Mr. Sam Ouliaris and Ms. Celine Rochon
Nowcasting enables policymakers to obtain forecasts of key macroeconomic indicators using higher frequency data, resulting in more timely information to guide proposed policy changes. A significant shortcoming of nowcasting estimators is their “reduced-form” nature, which means they cannot be used to assess the impact of policy changes, for example, on the baseline nowcast of real GDP. This paper outlines two separate methodologies to address this problem. The first is a partial equilibrium approach that uses an existing baseline nowcasting regression and single-equation forecasting models for the high-frequency data in that regression. The second approach uses a non-parametric structural VAR estimator recently introduced in Ouliaris and Pagan (2022) that imposes minimal identifying restrictions on the data to estimate the impact of structural shocks. Each approach is illustrated using a country-specific example.
Keywords:
Nowcasting; high frequency indicators; impulse responses; structural models; frequency data; Real GDP of Dominica; year-on-year percentage; baseline Nowcasting regression; USA real GDP; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Structural vector autoregression; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Dominica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper reviews the tourism sector landscape in Dominica, assesses its recent performance relative to peers, and analyzes the main determinants and constraints for tourism development. Tourism plays a vital role in Dominica’s economy. It contributes significantly to growth, employment, and exports. The coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had a significant impact on Dominica’s tourism sector, and the recovery has been slower compared to peers. While the drop in tourist arrivals in Dominica was similar to regional peers, the recovery has been much slower. The underperformance appeared mainly explained by the costs of stay and timing of lockdown restrictions. The econometric analysis shows that flight connectivity and demand variables play the most significant role in explaining tourism developments, while natural disasters can have negative lasting significant impacts. This calls for improving infrastructure and enhancing resilience. Furthermore, countries can enhance competitiveness and reduce vulnerabilities by investing in the expansion of skilled labor supply for the sector and diversifying product offers.
Keywords:
tourism sector landscape; tourism recovery; market source; tourism flow; Yibin mu; Tourism; Natural disasters; COVID-19; Income; Caribbean