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Petr Jakubik
The technical assistance aimed to enhance the Financial Stability Report (FSR) of the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten. It reviewed the 2023 FSR and discussed the report's composition and the related financial stability analyses and assessments. In particular, the mission helped the team to estimate sectoral credit risk models using the Bayesian Model Averaging, enhancing the forward-looking element of the report. The mission concluded that the FSR could be further streamlined following the central story with the key messages. Furthermore, developments in the analytical toolkit could further enhance the report quality.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The IMF Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted a technical assistance (TA) mission in Curaçao and Sint Maarten from October 3 to October 12, 2023. The mission aimed to support the Central Bank of Curaçao and Sint Maarten (CBCS) in enhancing its Financial Stability Report (FSR) by improving financial stability assessments, strengthening the analytical framework, and refining credit risk modeling. The mission reviewed the latest available FSR and provided recommendations to improve its structure, analytical depth, and communication strategy. A key focus was on developing sectoral credit risk models to assess the impact of macroeconomic conditions on non-performing loans (NPLs) and overall financial stability. The mission also introduced the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach as a methodology for addressing model uncertainty and provided an initial estimation framework for sectoral credit risk modeling. In addition, discussions covered broader aspects of financial stability, including stress testing, interconnectedness, emerging risks such as climate and cyber risks, and the integration of financial stability indicators with regulatory frameworks. Several recommendations were made to further enhance the FSR and its underlying framework. The text of the report should be streamlined to avoid repetition and focus on key financial stability risks and vulnerabilities. The analytical toolkit should be made more forward-looking by incorporating stress testing results based on macroeconomic scenarios. The report should provide clearer communication of regulatory frameworks and financial stability indicators across all segments of the financial system, including banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. The CBCS should also strengthen its data management framework by consolidating all financial stability-related data into a centralized data warehouse and exploring the feasibility of establishing a credit register for more granular risk assessment. To ensure more effective communication, the FSR should be actively promoted as the CBCS’s flagship financial stability publication, supported by cross-departmental discussions during its development. The external communication strategy could be enhanced by organizing press briefings, media interviews, and online dissemination efforts. Additionally, emerging risks such as climate change and cybersecurity should be consistently covered in future reports. These enhancements will help improve the quality, transparency, and forward-looking nature of financial stability assessments in Curaçao and Sint Maarten, strengthening macroprudential oversight and risk management in the region.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation presents that Curaçao and Sint Maarten have continued to experience a vigorous post-pandemic recovery underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly led by international oil price developments, notwithstanding a recent uptick, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance with the fiscal rule. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 before gradually converging to its potential over the medium term. Stayover tourism supported by fiscal expansion is projected to drive economic growth at a robust 4.5 percent in 2024 due to new airlifts and further expansion in hotel capacity. Both countries need more public investments and strategies to improve tourist experience and enhance tourism’s value added, including adequate infrastructure to allow for timely ground transportation and continued efforts to improve the quality of services provided.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2023 Article IV Consultation with Kingdom of The Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten continue to recover from major shocks. Both countries have had two years of robust growth driven by a strong rebound of tourism, although the benefits of recovery have not reached all sectors. The recovery in tourist arrivals was among the fastest in the Caribbean and the current outcomes are above the pre-pandemic levels. Sint Maarten has further to go to reach levels seen before hurricane Irma in 2017. Similar to other countries, Curaçao experienced a strong bout of inflation, which affected the vulnerable. The international reserves of the monetary union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten remain at a comfortable level despite the elevated external current account deficit, which was due in part to higher import prices. The banking system remains well capitalized and liquid. After a robust recovery in 2022, estimated at 7.9 percent, output growth is expected to moderate. With post-pandemic recovery growth largely accomplished, activity is expected to encounter harder supply constraints going forward, including hotel room inventory and airport reconstruction. The authorities in both countries should implement broad-based structural reforms to support a robust and inclusive recovery, improve resilience to climate change, limit fiscal risks, and safeguard debt sustainability.
Brian Kwok Chung Yee
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Ms. Bidisha Das
This paper discusses the high-level summary technical assistance report for Curaçao and Sint Maarten on financial soundness indicators (FSI). The High-Level Summary Technical Assistance Report series provides high-level summaries of the assistance provided to IMF capacity development recipients, describing the high-level objectives, findings, and recommendations. The mission, in collaboration with the staff of the Centrale Bank van Curaçao en Sint Maarten (CBCS), successfully developed bridge tables to compile FSIs for commercial banks and savings banks, which could be linked in the long term with its database to automate the FSIs compilation process. The mission also identified a few areas for improvements related to the data collection framework for the deposit takers to be implemented in the medium term. As a result of the mission, the CBCS is able to start reporting the FSI-standard reports, financial soundness metadata, and financial soundness institutional coverage for dissemination on the IMF’s FSI website for Curaçao and Sint Maarten. A timeframe for implementing the mission recommendations including reporting FSIs to statistics department was also discussed and agreed on with the CBCS staff.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten are recovering from the pandemic but facing multiple challenges, including spillovers from the war in Ukraine. Curaçao was in a protracted recession even before the pandemic due to spillovers from the Venezuelan crisis. Sint Maarten needs to fully recover not only from the pandemic, but also from the devastating 2017 hurricanes.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The CBvCSM is the sole supervisory authority for all regulated financial institutions operating locally and in the offshore (or international) sector, as well as the stock exchange in Curacao and St Maarten. The financial sector comprises different types of institutions, which include banks and non-bank institutions, insurance companies (both Life, and Non-life), securities intermediaries, asset management firms, investments institutions, fund administrators, management of pension funds, reinsurers, and trust companies.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic inflicted another major shock on the economies of Curaçao and Sint Maarten, which followed category 5 hurricanes in Sint Maarten in 2017 and the spillovers of the Venezuelan crisis on Curaçao. Despite the substantial response measures financed by The Netherlands, the economic contraction in 2020 was severe.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation focuses on Curaçao and Sint Maarten’s near and medium-term challenges and policy priorities and was prepared before coronavirus disease 2019 became a global pandemic and resulted in unprecedented strains in global trade, commodity and financial markets. The fiscal position in Curaçao improved in the past two years, in part due to implemented fiscal measures. Both Curaçao and Sint Maarten would benefit from introducing a Fiscal Responsibility Framework. It could incorporate a central government debt ratio as a long-term anchor and operational rules calibrated to meet it. The report suggests that risks in the financial sector need to be addressed as a matter of priority. The authorities should develop a strategy for addressing financial sector vulnerabilities with the objective of preserving financial stability while minimizing fiscal costs. Significant strengthening of supervision and a complete overhaul of the bank resolution framework are also urgently needed. An across-the board improvement in the governance framework should be a key priority in both countries. Vulnerabilities in the financial system point to the need to strengthen governance in the financial sector.