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International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
The Cabo Verdean economy is facing considerable challenges stemming from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prior to the health crisis, economic growth was robust, the fiscal and external positions were improving, reserves were at comfortable levels, and public debt was on a downward trajectory. The pandemic is threatening to erode these gains and has generated significant financing needs. The authorities have been implementing policy and healthcare measures to address the fallout of the pandemic and protect vulnerable groups while seeking to safeguard macroeconomic stability.
Mr. Jesus R Gonzalez-Garcia and Yuanchen Yang
This paper examines the effect of international trade on corporate market power in emerging market economies and developing countries, with a special focus on sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis is based on a large firm-level dataset, tariff data by sector and agreggate indicators of international trade for the period 2000-17. Greater trade liberalization and trade integration are associated with significant declines in market power, with the effect being more pronounced for firms in the manufacturing and ICT sectors, private sector firms, and firms with higher initial markups. Firms in sub-Saharan Africa tend to experience signficantly lower markups after allowing greater trade integration. The effects of trade liberalization on market power materializes over time, and there are significant complementarities between trade reforms and real sector reforms.
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This paper highlights Cabo Verde’s First Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and Request for Modification of Targets. Performance under the PCI-supported program has been strong. All reform targets were met, with some measures put in place ahead of schedule; and all end-September 2019 quantitative targets were met, except for the floor on tax revenue, missed by a narrow margin due to lower-than-projected taxes on international trade. Economic prospects for 2020 are clouded by the expected impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), resulting from the global economic downturn and travel restrictions which adversely affect tourism flows, foreign direct investment and remittances. Coordinated support from Cabo Verde’s development partners will be needed to support the authorities’ efforts in addressing the economic and social impact of COVID-19. The medium-term outlook remains positive although risks are tilted to the downside. Growth is expected to rebound in 2021 and return to the pre-COVID-19 medium-term trajectory of about 5 percent as the global economy recovers, and the authorities maintain their structural reform efforts to improve the business environment and build the economy’s resilience to adverse shocks.
International Monetary Fund
This paper concludes that the existing framework remains broadly appropriate, but proposes methodological refinements to improve the assessment of market access, clarifies how serious short-term vulnerabilities are assessed, and proposes a modest extension of the transition period before graduation decisions become effective.
Jorge Alvarez and Claudia Berg
A large share of cross-country differences in productivity is explained by differences in agricultural productivity. Using a combination of sub-national agricultural statistics and geospatial datasets on crop-specific potential yields, we study the main drivers of this variation from a macroeconomic perspective. We find that differences in geographically-induced crop-specific comparative advantages can explain a substantial share of the variation in yields across the world. Data reveal substantial gaps between potential and observed yields in most countries. When decomposing these within country gaps, we find that crop selection gaps are on average larger than those induced by input usage alone. The results highlight the importance of understanding the interaction of geography and crop selection drivers in assessing aggregate agricultural productivity differences.