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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Potential Impact to the Rest of the Caribbean from Opening US-Cuba Tourism
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
,
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
, and
Rafael Romeu
The Cuban revolution and the subsequent US embargo on Cuba helped shape the tourism sector in the Caribbean, facilitating the birth and growth of alternative destinations. Therefore, the apprehension of the Caribbean tourism industry towards a change in US travel policy to Cuba is understandable, but likely unwarranted. The history of tourism in the region has shown that it is possible for all destinations to grow despite large changes in market shares. Our estimations show that liberalizing US-Cuba tourism could result in US arrivals to Cuba of between 3 and 5.6 million, most of it coming from new tourists to the region. We also identify the destinations most at risk of changes in US-Cuba relations.
Keywords:
WP; tourist; Cuba; tourism industry; Tourism; Caribbean; Trade; Gravity model; US-Cuba relation; opening US-Cuba; tourism flow; visit Cuba; US-Cuba restriction; US-Cuba tourism; Gravity models
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
,
Lu Han
,
Miss Marie S Kim
, and
Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Keywords:
WP; tourist arrival; tourism industry; tourist; Caribbean; tourism; airlift supply factors; airlift supply factor; supply variable; market concentration; airlift supply data; airline industry; airlift availability; Structural vector autoregression; Natural disasters; Transportation; Unemployment rate