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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Gone with the Wind: Estimating Hurricane and Climate Change Costs in the Caribbean
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
This paper studies the economic costs of hurricanes in the Caribbean by constructing a novel dataset that combines a detailed record of tropical cyclones’ characteristics with reported damages. I estimate the relation between hurricane wind speeds and damages in the Caribbean; finding that the elasticity of damages to GDP ratio with respect to maximum wind speeds is three in the case of landfalls. The data show that hurricane damages are considerably underreported, particularly in the 1950s and 1960s, with average damages potentially being three times as large as the reported average of 1.6 percent of GDP per year. I document and show that hurricanes that do not make landfall also have considerable negative impacts on the Caribbean economies. Finally, I estimate that the average annual hurricane damages in the Caribbean will increase between 22 and 77 percent by the year 2100, in a global warming scenario of high CO2 concentrations and high global temperatures.
Keywords:
WP; nominal GDP; wind-damage elasticity; wind velocity; storm damage; Hurricane; tropical cyclone; climate change; climate impact; Caribbean; damages in the Caribbean; tropical cyclone damage; wind-damage function; wind-damages relation; terms tropical cyclone; Natural disasters; Greenhouse gas emissions; Renewable energy; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
,
Lu Han
,
Miss Marie S Kim
, and
Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Keywords:
WP; tourist arrival; tourism industry; tourist; Caribbean; tourism; airlift supply factors; airlift supply factor; supply variable; market concentration; airlift supply data; airline industry; airlift availability; Structural vector autoregression; Natural disasters; Transportation; Unemployment rate