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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
Martin Harding
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.
Keywords:
Inflation dynamics; inflation risk; monetary policy; linearized model; nonlinear model; real rigidities; cost-push shock; nonlinear Phillips curve; inflation-output gap trade-off; Inflation; Output gap; Central bank policy rate; Demand elasticity; Interest rate floor; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
,
Lu Han
,
Miss Marie S Kim
, and
Ms. Nicole Laframboise
This paper studies the role of airlift supply on the tourism sector in the Caribbean. The paper examines the relative importance of U.S.-Caribbean airlift supply factors such as the number of flights, seats, airlines, and departure cities on U.S. tourist arrivals. The possible endogeneity problem between airlift supply and tourist arrivals is addressed by using a structural panel VAR and individual country VARs. Among the four airlift supply measures, increasing the number of flights is found to be the most effective way to boost tourist arrivals on a sustained basis. As a case study, the possible crowding effect of increasing the number of U.S. flights to Cuba is investigated and, based on past observations, we find no significant impact on flights to other Caribbean countries. The impact of natural disasters on airlift supply and tourist arrivals is also quantified.
Keywords:
WP; tourist arrival; tourism industry; tourist; Caribbean; tourism; airlift supply factors; airlift supply factor; supply variable; market concentration; airlift supply data; airline industry; airlift availability; Structural vector autoregression; Natural disasters; Transportation; Unemployment rate
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, septembre 2015
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finances & Développement, septembre 2015
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; central bank; investment; monetary policy; financial crisis; investor
Cover Finance & Development
Finanzas y Desarrollo, septiembre de 2015
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finanzas y Desarrollo, septiembre de 2015
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; central bank; investment; monetary policy; financial crisis; investor
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, September 2015
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This chapter presents the point of view and ideas of Sabina Alkire, an economist. Alkire wants the Multidimensional Poverty Index to be part of a data revolution to guide the fight against poverty. According to Alkire, learning to meditate soothed away what she describes as the temper tantrums of her childhood. The chapter also highlights the fact that an index is only as good as its underlying data, and in emerging market economies that quality is often inadequate. The quest for better poverty metrics coincides with growing doubts about the ability of conventional statistics, especially GDP, to gauge economic growth in the digital economy, let alone well-being, welfare, and environmental sustainability.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; central bank; investment; monetary policy; financial crisis; investor; IMF study; Columbia University professor; IMF report; price of commodity; post-World War II capitalism; Stress testing; Foreign direct investment; Islamic finance; Income inequality; Global; East Asia; Caribbean; Central America; South America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Recession and Policy Transmission to Latin American Tourism: Does Expanded Travel to Cuba Offset Crisis Spillovers?
Mr. Andy M. Wolfe
and
Rafael Romeu
This study measures the impact of changing economic conditions in OECD countries on tourist arrivals to countries/destinations in Latin America and the Caribbean. A model of utility maximization across labor, consumption of goods and services at home, and consumption of tourism services across monopolistically competitive destinations abroad is presented. The model yields estimable equations arrivals as a function of OECD economic conditions and the elasticity of substitution across tourist destinations. Estimates suggest median tourism arrivals decline by at least three to five percent in response to a one percent increase in OECD unemployment, even after controlling for declines in OECD consumption and output gaps. Arrivals to individual destination are driven by differing exposure to OECD country groups sharing similar business cycle characteristics. Estimates of the elasticity of substitution suggest that tourism demand is highly price sensitive, and that a variety of costs to delivering tourism services drive market share losses in uncompetitive destinations. One recent cost change, the 2009 easing of restrictions on U.S. travel to Cuba, supported a small (countercyclical) boost to Cuba’s arrivals of U.S. non-family travel, as well as a pre-existing surge in family travel (of Cuban origin). Despite the US becoming Cuba’s second highest arrival source, Cuban policymakers have significant scope for lowering the relatively high costs of family travel from the United States.
Keywords:
WP; business cycle
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Staff-Monitored Program
International Monetary Fund
This paper on the Republic of Congo’s staff-monitored program (SMP) reports that the authorities and civil society pledged to work together to make resource management more transparent. The authorities have reached understandings with IMF staff on an SMP for April-September 2007. The SMP aims at making progress toward fiscal sustainability, enhancing public financial management, and improving governance and transparency. A solid track record of policy implementation in the context of the SMP would pave the way for discussions on a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement to resume by end-2007.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; oil revenue mobilization; government; marketing government oil; poverty reduction effort; management; oil revenues accounts; Congolese authorities; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Fall and Recovery of the Cuban Economy in the 1990's: Mirage or Reality?
Mr. Ernesto Hernández-Catá
The collapse of the Cuban economy following the cessation of Soviet assistance gave way to a strong recovery in 1994-96. There are three possible explanations for this recovery: (i) that it never took place; (ii) that it reflected a surge in productivity resulting from stabilization and liberalization in 1993-94; or (iii) that it resulted from a favorable aggregate demand shock. The second explanation-the most persuasive-suggests that a strong and durable expansion will probably not be achieved on the basis of present policies, but that the benefits of a full liberalization of the economy are likely to be considerable.
Keywords:
WP; fixed capital; GDP deflator; balance of payments; liberalization measure; output index; Cuba; growth; productivity; liberalization; transition; growth performance; price liberalization; demand shock; Total factor productivity; Employment; Labor force; Price controls; Baltics; Eastern Europe; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sanctions and Civil Conflict
Mr. Dmitry Gershenson
Using a formal general equilibrium framework, this paper analyzes how sanctions imposed on the contestants in civil conflict affect the welfare of these contestants and the allocation of resources to conflict. It is shown that weak sanctions can hurt the contestant they are supposed to help, while strong sanctions augment the expected welfare of their intended beneficiaries. Moreover, sanctions are more likely to be successful if the contestant who is subject to sanctions can expect to derive a positive income in case of compliance. The likelihood of success rises as this income increases.
Keywords:
WP; defeat income; victory income; challenger group; Sanctions; Conflict; Surrender; apartheid government; Castro regime; challenger's victory; Personal income; Consumption; Defense spending; Africa