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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Public Economics x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Martin Iseringhausen
,
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
, and
Wellian Wiranto
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Keywords:
WP; explanatory variable; country; regime; IMF lending; Fund resources; GRA arrangements; program success; IMF quota; IMF support; adjustment program; lending practice; IMF arrangement; successor program; IMF-supported adjustment program; program period; IMF-supported programs consist; program failure; quota share; Current account balance; Exchange rate arrangements; Arrears; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in The Bahamas is estimated to have stalled in 2015, as a modest increase in air tourism arrivals was not sufficient to offset a contraction in domestic demand and weak exports of goods. Private consumption and investment were weighed down by headwinds from fiscal consolidation, as well as an end to construction. Inflation was moderate at 1.9 percent on average in 2015. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 0.5 percent in 2016, supported by continued growth in air tourist arrivals and moderating headwinds to private consumption and investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget communication; deficit; authority; budget projection; Bahamian authorities; further deficit reduction; goods export; Fiscal consolidation; Value-added tax; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St.Vincent and the Grenadines: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
This consultation paper explains that in addition to the adverse impact of the global slowdown and higher commodity prices, St. Vincent and the Grenadines has been hit by two successive natural disasters in the last 12 months. As a result, real GDP has been contracted by a cumulative 4.7 percent since 2007 and is expected to remain slightly negative this year. Growth is expected to improve gradually toward its potential, but significant downside risks remain, largely related to developments in the global economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; debt; GDP; present value; real GDP; core inflation; growth potential; debt service; growth in St. Vincent and the Grenadines; creating flow; private sector; sustainability framework; Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global; North America; Northern Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Congo: Staff-Monitored Program
International Monetary Fund
This paper on the Republic of Congo’s staff-monitored program (SMP) reports that the authorities and civil society pledged to work together to make resource management more transparent. The authorities have reached understandings with IMF staff on an SMP for April-September 2007. The SMP aims at making progress toward fiscal sustainability, enhancing public financial management, and improving governance and transparency. A solid track record of policy implementation in the context of the SMP would pave the way for discussions on a Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility arrangement to resume by end-2007.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; oil revenue mobilization; government; marketing government oil; poverty reduction effort; management; oil revenues accounts; Congolese authorities; Oil; gas and mining taxes; Oil prices; Central Africa; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sanctions and Civil Conflict
Mr. Dmitry Gershenson
Using a formal general equilibrium framework, this paper analyzes how sanctions imposed on the contestants in civil conflict affect the welfare of these contestants and the allocation of resources to conflict. It is shown that weak sanctions can hurt the contestant they are supposed to help, while strong sanctions augment the expected welfare of their intended beneficiaries. Moreover, sanctions are more likely to be successful if the contestant who is subject to sanctions can expect to derive a positive income in case of compliance. The likelihood of success rises as this income increases.
Keywords:
WP; defeat income; victory income; challenger group; Sanctions; Conflict; Surrender; apartheid government; Castro regime; challenger's victory; Personal income; Consumption; Defense spending; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff papers: Volume 5 No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This paper discusses impact of purchasing power on deferred payments. The importance of the economic consequences for the economy of the adoption of purchasing power guarantees would, of course, depend on the range within which these guarantees were applied. Any practical proposals are therefore predicated on the assumption that, for the country in question, there is uncertainty about future general price movements. The problem which purchasing power guarantees are intended to solve is shown in its simplest form in the settlement of a private debt. In countries suffering from inflation, the improvement in the lender–borrower relationship would also be strengthened, since, with a purchasing power clause in the contract, the stigma of usury that would attach to any attempt to insist on high nominal rates of interest in order to ensure a proper real return would be avoided. The legal and social sanctions against usury in money terms give rise to a paradox in discussing the use of a purchasing power clause. The analytical discussion seems to show that, if anything, the borrower would gain more than the lender from the use of the clause—simply because interest payments are likely to be larger relative to his net income, and to have their real value stabilized would have a greater stabilizing effect on real income.
Keywords:
SP; sc; price; purchasing power clause; import; exchange tax; sterling area; government expenditure; raw material; Budget planning and preparation; Capital budget; Purchasing power; Exchange taxes; Western Europe; Europe; Africa; Eastern Europe