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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
Martin Harding
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.
Keywords:
Inflation dynamics; inflation risk; monetary policy; linearized model; nonlinear model; real rigidities; cost-push shock; nonlinear Phillips curve; inflation-output gap trade-off; Inflation; Output gap; Central bank policy rate; Demand elasticity; Interest rate floor; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Martin Iseringhausen
,
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
, and
Wellian Wiranto
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Keywords:
WP; explanatory variable; country; regime; IMF lending; Fund resources; GRA arrangements; program success; IMF quota; IMF support; adjustment program; lending practice; IMF arrangement; successor program; IMF-supported adjustment program; program period; IMF-supported programs consist; program failure; quota share; Current account balance; Exchange rate arrangements; Arrears; International reserves; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
The Bahamas: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in The Bahamas is estimated to have stalled in 2015, as a modest increase in air tourism arrivals was not sufficient to offset a contraction in domestic demand and weak exports of goods. Private consumption and investment were weighed down by headwinds from fiscal consolidation, as well as an end to construction. Inflation was moderate at 1.9 percent on average in 2015. Growth is expected to strengthen to about 0.5 percent in 2016, supported by continued growth in air tourist arrivals and moderating headwinds to private consumption and investment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; budget communication; deficit; authority; budget projection; Bahamian authorities; further deficit reduction; goods export; Fiscal consolidation; Value-added tax; Global; Caribbean
Cover The Fund Agreement in the Courts, Vol. II
The Fund Agreement in the Courts, Vol. II
Mr. Joseph Gold

Abstract

Written by Joseph Gold, former General Counsel and now Senior Consultant at the IMF, these volumes contain discussions of the ever-increasing body of cases in which the Articles have had a bearing on issues before the courts.

Keywords:
BOOK; article; court; control regulation; exchange contract; Fund; exchange control regulation; unit of account; lower court; Exchange restrictions; Currencies; Exchange rates; Insurance; Europe; South America; Global
Cover Les procès d’assurance cubains et les Statuts du Fonds
Les procès d’assurance cubains et les Statuts du Fonds
International Monetary Fund
Keywords:
PAM; article; exchange control regulation; contract; regulation; exchange contract
Cover Cuban insurance Cases and the Articles of the Fund
Cuban insurance Cases and the Articles of the Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper discusses the Cuban insurance cases. The litigation in U.S. courts in which claims have been made under life insurance policies issued by U.S. or Canadian companies to applicants then resident in Cuba is the most extensive body of cases involving Article VIII, Section 2(6) that has come into the courts. The cases suggest that the benefits of Article VIII, Section 2(6), cease to be available to a country once it withdraws from the IMF, even in respect of contracts entered into when the country was a member. This conclusion seems to have been accepted by both courts and counsel in the cases.

Keywords:
PAM; article; exchange control regulation; contract; regulation; exchange contract; defendant company; life insurance contract; exchange resource; Currencies; Exchange restrictions; Insurance; Insurance companies