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Western Hemisphere > Cuba

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Understanding Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics
Martin Harding
,
Jesper Lindé
, and
Mathias Trabandt
We propose a macroeconomic model with a nonlinear Phillips curve that has a flat slope when inflationary pressures are subdued and steepens when inflationary pressures are elevated. The nonlinear Phillips curve in our model arises due to a quasi-kinked demand schedule for goods produced by firms. Our model can jointly account for the modest decline in inflation during the Great Recession and the surge in inflation during the Post-Covid period. Because our model implies a stronger transmission of shocks when inflation is high, it generates conditional heteroskedasticity in inflation and inflation risk. Hence, our model can generate more sizeable inflation surges due to cost-push and demand shocks than a standard linearized model. Finally, our model implies that the central bank faces a more severe trade-off between inflation and output stabilization when inflation is high.
Keywords:
Inflation dynamics; inflation risk; monetary policy; linearized model; nonlinear model; real rigidities; cost-push shock; nonlinear Phillips curve; inflation-output gap trade-off; Inflation; Output gap; Central bank policy rate; Demand elasticity; Interest rate floor; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Repeated Use of IMF-Supported Programs: Determinants and Forecasting
Martin Iseringhausen
,
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
, and
Wellian Wiranto
This paper studies the determinants of repeated use of Fund-supported programs in a large sample covering virtually all General Resources Account (GRA) arrangements that were approved between 1952 and 2012. Generally, the revolving nature of the IMF’s resources calls for the temporary sup-port of member countries to address balance of payments problems while repeated use has often been viewed as program failure. First, using probit models we show that a small number of country-specific variables such as growth, the current account balance, the international reserves position, and the institutional framework play a significant role in explaining repeated use. Second, we discuss the role of IMF-specific and program-specific variables and find evidence that a country’s track record with the Fund is a good predictor of repeated use. Finally, we conduct an out-of-sample forecasting exer-cise. While our approach has predictive power for repeated use, exact forecasting remains challenging. From a policy perspective, the results could prove useful to assess the risk IMF programs pose to the revolving nature of the Fund’s financial resources.
Keywords:
WP; explanatory variable; country; regime; IMF lending; Fund resources; GRA arrangements; program success; IMF quota; IMF support; adjustment program; lending practice; IMF arrangement; successor program; IMF-supported adjustment program; program period; IMF-supported programs consist; program failure; quota share; Current account balance; Exchange rate arrangements; Arrears; International reserves; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, September 2015
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
This chapter presents the point of view and ideas of Sabina Alkire, an economist. Alkire wants the Multidimensional Poverty Index to be part of a data revolution to guide the fight against poverty. According to Alkire, learning to meditate soothed away what she describes as the temper tantrums of her childhood. The chapter also highlights the fact that an index is only as good as its underlying data, and in emerging market economies that quality is often inadequate. The quest for better poverty metrics coincides with growing doubts about the ability of conventional statistics, especially GDP, to gauge economic growth in the digital economy, let alone well-being, welfare, and environmental sustainability.
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; central bank; investment; monetary policy; financial crisis; investor; IMF study; Columbia University professor; IMF report; price of commodity; post-World War II capitalism; Stress testing; Foreign direct investment; Islamic finance; Income inequality; Global; East Asia; Caribbean; Central America; South America
Cover The Fund Agreement in the Courts, Vol. II
The Fund Agreement in the Courts, Vol. II
Mr. Joseph Gold

Abstract

Written by Joseph Gold, former General Counsel and now Senior Consultant at the IMF, these volumes contain discussions of the ever-increasing body of cases in which the Articles have had a bearing on issues before the courts.

Keywords:
BOOK; article; court; control regulation; exchange contract; Fund; exchange control regulation; unit of account; lower court; Exchange restrictions; Currencies; Exchange rates; Insurance; Europe; South America; Global
Cover Cuban insurance Cases and the Articles of the Fund
Cuban insurance Cases and the Articles of the Fund
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper discusses the Cuban insurance cases. The litigation in U.S. courts in which claims have been made under life insurance policies issued by U.S. or Canadian companies to applicants then resident in Cuba is the most extensive body of cases involving Article VIII, Section 2(6) that has come into the courts. The cases suggest that the benefits of Article VIII, Section 2(6), cease to be available to a country once it withdraws from the IMF, even in respect of contracts entered into when the country was a member. This conclusion seems to have been accepted by both courts and counsel in the cases.

Keywords:
PAM; article; exchange control regulation; contract; regulation; exchange contract; defendant company; life insurance contract; exchange resource; Currencies; Exchange restrictions; Insurance; Insurance companies
Cover The Fund and Non-Member States Some Legal Effects
The Fund and Non-Member States Some Legal Effects
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This paper examines legal provisions and practices of the IMF that involve nonmember states. It considers certain preliminary topics including: categories of nonmembers, subordinate territories for which members are responsible, and ex-members. It then discusses three ways in which nonmembers are affected either because members are limited in their freedom of action in dealing with nonmembers or because nonmembers have consented to certain obligations or standards that parallel those of the Articles. Withholding of certain benefits from nonmembers is also outlined.

Keywords:
PAM; exchange agreement; exchange transaction; fund's practice; countries of Eastern Europe; General arrangement; Currencies; General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade; Exchange restrictions; Gold; Eastern Europe