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Europe > Switzerland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 27 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Public debt x
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Cover Selected Issues Papers
Securing Fiscal Discipline and Credibility in WAEMU: WAEMU
Ljubica Dordevic
and
Olivia Y Ibrahim
Fiscal consolidation and the reintroduction of the WAEMU fiscal framework is crucial for maintaining debt sustainability, external viability, and financial stability. The 3 and 70 percent of GDP deficit and debt ceilings envisaged by the expired rule remain appropriate, while addressing the stock-flow adjustments will help rebuild fiscal buffers. Convergence to a fiscal deficit of 3 percent of GDP should be ensured by 2025— barring exceptional circumstances—with focus on domestic revenue mobilization, while controlling expenditure. To secure fiscal discipline and credibility, it is essential to revamp the fiscal rule with a credible debt correction mechanism and exogenous escape clauses.
Keywords:
monetary union; fiscal policy; fiscal consolidation; fiscal rules; debt; stock flow adjustment; stock-flow adjustment; credibility in WAEMU; deficit ceiling; deficit target; deficit rule; Debt sustainability; Fiscal space; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes
International Monetary Fund
Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.
Keywords:
data; public sector; fiscal policy; foreign exchange intervention; swaps; repos; financial system; banks; non-banks; bilateral surveillance; multilateral surveillance; data provision; IMF data standards initiative; Fund member; data adequacy; adequacy assessment framework; Nonbank financial institutions; Credit; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The UK entered 2020 negotiating a new economic relationship with the EU and facing other challenges, including meeting climate targets, dealing with an aging population, and reinvigorating tepid productivity growth. Growth and investment had been weak since the 2016 referendum, and the current account deficit elevated, but unemployment was low, inflation on target, and balance sheets strong. The global pandemic hit the UK hard in March, and the country now faces a second wave. The economic impact has been severe, but helped by an aggressive policy response, jobs have been preserved, businesses kept afloat, and banking sector losses contained. Still, the outlook for the near term is weak, as the economy works through the second wave, Brexit, rising unemployment, and corporate distress. Risks are overall to the downside, centering on the degree of balance sheet damage sustained by households and small and medium enterprises. The pace at which vaccines are able to bring the pandemic under control could be an important mitigating factor.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; NI Protocol; draft UK; bank dividend payment; welfare provision; withdrawal agreement; activity data; COVID-19; Inflation; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Debt and r - g at Risk
Weicheng Lian
,
Mr. Andrea F Presbitero
, and
Ursula Wiriadinata
As interest rate-growth differentials (r-g) turned negative in many countries, governments consider pursuing fiscal expansion and the potential risks involved. Using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies, our analysis suggests that high public debts can lead to adverse future r-g dynamics. Specifically, countries with higher initial public debt experience (i) a shorter duration of negative r-g episodes and a higher probability of reversal, (ii) higher average r-g, and (iii) a more right-skewed r-g distribution, that implies higher down-side risks. Furthermore, high-debt countries experience larger increases in interest rates in response to (iv) an unexpected decline in domestic output and (v) an increase of global volatility. Results are stronger when public debts are denominated in foreign currencies.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate-growth differential; debt country; interest-rate response; interest rates environment; U.S. dollar; Public debt; Interest rate-growth differential; Shocks; Fiscal policy; Foreign currency debt; FX share group; public debt-to-GDP; Long term interest rates; Currencies; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: 2019 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Swiss economy has performed relatively well since the global financial crisis. Growth compares favorably with most other advanced countries and aggregate employment has grown robustly. The fiscal position is strong and the external trade surplus remains large and stable despite several episodes of intense appreciation pressure owing to the Swiss franc’s reputation as a safe haven. Growth is expected to temporarily dip to 1.1 percent in 2019 on weakness in external demand. Risks to the outlook are tilted down. Switzerland is also facing several policy challenges: low interest rates are fueling risks in the real estate and mortgage markets; persistent subdued inflation has decreased the operational space for monetary policy; and population aging and technological change will require further upskilling and generate new demands for public resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government report; Switzerland; FINMA; authorities' interpretation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; deposit insurance system; safe-haven pressure; Corporate income tax; Income; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
India: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper evaluates corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India. The analysis shows that while corporate sector risks have subsided, debt repayment capacity remains strained, and high leverage continues to weigh on corporate resilience, which may pose further risks to banks’ asset quality. Public sector banks have stepped up recognition of nonperforming assets, but their debt recovery capacity remains weak. Simulations suggest that potential recapitalization needs, at current provisioning levels, should have a modest fiscal impact.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Center; India; product market; income; labor market rigidity; product market regulation; debt intolerance; UBI scheme; intolerance approach; fuel tax reform; Personal income; Labor markets; Income inequality; Global; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Switzerland withstood relatively well the sharp appreciation that followed the exit from the exchange rate floor. Economic performance has continued to firm in 2016 with support from domestic and external demand. GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.5 percent in 2016, and to stabilize at 1.7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory in 2017 and to continue to rise to the middle of the target band. However, important external and domestic risks could affect this outlook, including resurgence in global financial market volatility, renewed concerns about the financial health of large global banks, and changes in Swiss–European Union economic relations.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk; output gap; debt; interest rate; brake rule; price development; IMF staff estimate; interest rate environment; FSI website; Exchange rates; Housing prices; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Austria
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2015 Article IV Consultation discusses the key issues related to the economy of Austria. Austria has recovered from the global financial crisis, but the crisis still remains in bank and public sector balance sheets. Major banks have been striving to strengthen their capital and profitability positions amid regulatory and supervisory reforms. Despite lackluster growth, economic slack is limited as potential growth has fallen as well. The governing coalition of Social Democrats and the right-of-center People's Party holds a constructive dialogue on economic policy issues. Growth is estimated at 0.7 percent in 2015, a slight improvement over the ½ percent average in 2012–14, on the back of strengthening external and domestic demand.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; estimate; potential GDP growth estimate; financial market authority; authority; consultation discussion; rising emerging market risk; money market rate; crisis legacy; Fiscal stance; Migration; Labor taxes; Global; Middle East
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Mr. Abdul d Abiad
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Keywords:
WP; investment shock; public investment; investment; Fiscal policy; Growth; Debt; investment efficiency; efficiency frontier; crowding in; investment behavior well; Public investment spending; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Vertical Fiscal Imbalances and the Accumulation of Government Debt
Inaki Aldasoro
and
Mr. Mike Seiferling
Delegating fiscal decision making power to sub-national governments has been an area of interest for both academics and policymakers given the expectation that it may lead to better and more efficient provision of public goods and services. Decentralization has, however, often occurred on the expenditure and less on the revenue side, creating “vertical fiscal imbalances” where sub-national governments’ expenditures are not financed through their own revenues. The mismatch between own revenues and expenditures may have consequences for public finance performance. This study constructs a large sample of general and subnational level fiscal data beginning in 1980 from the IMF’s Government Finance Statistics Yearbook. Extending the literature to the balance sheet approach, this paper examines the effects of vertical fiscal imbalances on government debt. The results indicate that vertical fiscal imbalances are relevant in explaining government debt accumulation suggesting a degree of caution when promoting fiscal decentralization. This paper also underlines the role of data covering the general government and its subectors for comprehensive analysis of fiscal performance.
Keywords:
WP; government; country; fiscal consolidation effort; government finance statistics yearbook; fiscal decentralization; vertical fiscal imbalances; panel data; public debt; GFSY; government fragmentation; government indebtedness; government debt series; authority index; government debt database; OECD country; Fiscal stabilization; Fiscal stance; Fiscal federalism; Global