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International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Swiss financial institutions are well capitalized and could withstand the severe shocks under the adverse stress test scenarios, but macrofinancial vulnerabilities are deepening. Important reforms have been made since the 2014 FSAP, but several critical recommendations and emerging challenges have yet to be fully addressed. Capital buffers have increased across all categories of banks, and while the two global systemically important banks have downsized and deleveraged significantly since the global financial crisis, since 2013 they have been growing again. Macroprudential measures have not been taken since 2014 and is constrained by having only one mandated tool and a self-regulation agreement with banks. The financial supervisor (FINMA) has developed into a trusted supervisor, but as a small entity, it relies heavily on external auditors to conduct on-site supervision; the associated conflict of interest and supervisory objectivity risks need to be carefully managed. The combination of an ex-post funding mechanism, a low cap on banks’ contributions, and a private deposit insurance agency run by active bankers, weakens the crisis management arrangements.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This Detailed Assessment of Observance on the Insurance Core Principles on Switzerland analyzes that the insurance industry in Switzerland is well developed having among the highest insurance penetration and expenditure per capita in the world. The sector is dominated by a few players writing significant international business. The life sector is dominated by two players, responsible for 54 percent of the business and the top 10 life insurers account for 97 percent of the market. The industry has weathered the 2008 crisis well; however, the current low interest rate environment is affecting the sector. The lack of availability of Swiss government bonds to match long term liabilities of life insurers and pension funds could be a source of vulnerability. The long-term nature of the liabilities of life insurers and pension funds could in principle be matched by investment in Swiss government securities. Supervision focuses on ensuring sufficiency of liquid assets to meet policy liabilities. Policyholders have priority claims over the tied assets. In addition, robust solvency requirements ensure there is enough capital to safeguard the insurers’ financial soundness under adverse conditions.
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
This paper discusses key findings of the Financial System Stability Assessment on Switzerland. Stress tests indicate that the Swiss banks are robust against even severe shocks. Banks have increased their capital, and the two global banks have achieved substantial deleveraging. Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority has focused on significantly improving the quality of its supervision. Real estate bubbles appear to be emerging. With monetary instruments not available, macroprudential instruments are being introduced, but so far are limited and untested. Interest rates are negative at some maturities, threatening the business models of life insurance and pension companies.
International Monetary Fund
This Article IV Consultation reports that Switzerland’s exchange rate floor, seen as credible by the markets, has halted appreciation and helped shore up the economy. Once growth recovers and inflation reaches more comfortable levels, maintaining the exchange rate commitment risks stoking inflation and hence, a return to free floating would be desirable. The risk of a real estate bubble has been heightened by loose monetary conditions, and new macroprudential instruments are under consideration to address this risk.
International Monetary Fund
The global financial crisis has tested the effectiveness of supervision under the “Twin Peaks” model. The crisis revealed the strengths of the “Twin International Peaks” model, as decisions were able to be made in a timely manner to contain the crisis, and clear divisions of powers and responsibilities were instrumental in ensuring effective coordination between key agencies. However, the crisis also exposed certain areas where improvements could strengthen the “Twin Peaks” framework. Intensive and well-focused efforts are being made to strengthen the supervisory framework.
International Monetary Fund
Although progress has been made in strengthening the Swiss economy, systemic risks posed by large banks as well as revisions to the macroprudential framework are still in train. The authorities welcomed the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) legislation and intervention of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) on strengthening financial sector stability, and stressed the need of a strong macroprudential framework and a legal framework with regard to crisis prevention. The authorities supported adherence to the Swiss debt brake rule, and emphasized that sustainability of public finances should be further improved.
International Monetary Fund
Switzerland is affected by the global crisis through the stock effect, the flow effect, and the trade effect. Along with a sharp contraction in exports, investments are now being postponed. Consumption has held up well so far, but as unemployment rises, household spending will lose momentum. The Swiss National Bank has appropriately loosened monetary policy, bringing the policy rates almost to zero. Maintaining financial stability will be essential for ensuring macroeconomic stability and growth in Switzerland.