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International Monetary Fund
Following the companion paper on the new policy challenges related to the adoption of digital forms of money, this paper presents an operational strategy for the IMF to continue delivering on its mandate of ensuring domestic and international financial and economic stability. The paper begins by summarizing the forces driving the adoption of digital forms of money, and the new policy questions that emerge. It then focusses on how the IMF’s core activities and output will need to evolve, including surveillance, capacity development, and analytical foundations. It ends by discusses how the IMF intends to partner with other organization, and to grow and structure internal resources to fulfill this vision.
Sebastian Beer
,
Maria Delgado Coelho
, and
Sebastien Leduc
We analyze the impact of exchange of information in tax matters in reducing international tax evasion between 1995 and 2018. Based on bilateral deposit data for 39 reporting countries and more than 200 counterparty jurisdictions, we find that recent automatic exchange of information frameworks reduced foreign-owned deposits in offshore jurisdictions by an average of 25 percent. This effect is statistically significant and, as expected, much larger than the effect of information exchange upon request, which is not significant. Furthermore, to test the sensitivity of our findings, we estimate countries’ offshore status and the impact of information exchange simultaneously using a finite mixture model. The results confirm that automatic (and not upon request) exchange of information impacts cross-border deposits in offshore jurisdictions, which are characterized by low income tax rates and strong financial secrecy.
International Monetary Fund
new common evaluation framework for the Fund’s capacity development (CD) activities. The new common evaluation framework is intended to streamline current practices and increase comparability and use of results by adopting for all CD evaluations a common four-step process that includes use of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) evaluation criteria. Around this common approach, there is flexibility to adapt evaluations to reflect the wide range of CD activities. Key elements of the framework are grouped around the objectives of: producing shorter, more focused, and more comparable evaluations; improving the information supporting evaluations;spending the same level of resources on evaluations while allocating these scarce resources more efficiently; and using the information from evaluations to alter practices or shift the targeting of CD resources.
International Monetary Fund
The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
Anna Ter-Martirosyan
,
Ms. Sally Chen
,
Mr. Lawrence Dwight
,
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
,
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
, and
Ms. Ashleigh Watson
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
International Monetary Fund
This paper seeks to advance our understanding of global financial interconnectedness by (i) mapping aspects of the architecture of global finance and (ii) investigating critical fault lines related to interconnectedness along which systemic risks were built up and shocks transmitted in the crisis. It thus takes initial steps toward operationalizing enhanced financial sector and macro-financial surveillance called for by the IMF’s Executive Board and by experts such as de Larosiere et al. (2009). Getting a better handle on interconnectedness would strengthen the Fund‘s ability, together with the Financial Stability Board, to track systemic risk concentrations. It would also inform spillover and vulnerability analyses, and sharpen bilateral and multilateral surveillance.
International Monetary Fund
This triennial surveillance review (TSR) takes place in a time of change, with the Fund in the midst of a major refocusing effort. That surveillance has not been as effective as it should be has been amply documented, notably in previous surveillance reviews and several IEO evaluations. Since the 2004 review of bilateral surveillance (BSR), considerable efforts have been made to enhance its effectiveness, including an overhaul of the policy framework with the adoption of a new Surveillance Decision in 2007. And as part of the refocusing effort, more change is underway to deliver on the Managing Director’s vision of an institution making better use of its comparative advantage, to be “more alert to emerging issues, more critical in its assessments (especially in good times), and more assertive in communicating its concerns.”
Mr. Philip R. Lane
and
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
We construct estimates of external assets and liabilities for 145 countries for the period 1970-2004. We describe our estimation methods and present key features of the data at the country and the global level. We focus on trends in net and gross external positions, and the composition of international portfolios, distinguishing between foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment, official reserves, and external debt. We document the increasing importance of equity financing and the improvement in the external position for emerging markets, and the differing pace of financial integration between advanced and developing economies. We also show the existence of a global discrepancy between estimated foreign assets and liabilities, and identify the asset categories that account for this discrepancy.
Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti
and
Mr. Philip R. Lane
The founders of the Bretton Woods System 60 years ago were primarily concerned with orderly exchange rate adjustment in a world economy that was characterized by widespread restrictions on international capital mobility. In contrast, the rapid pace of financial globalization during recent years poses new challenges for the international monetary system. In particular, large gross cross-holdings of foreign assets and liabilities mean that the valuation channel of exchange rate adjustment has grown in importance, relative to the traditional trade balance channel. Accordingly, this paper empirically explores some of the interconnections between financial globalization and exchange rate adjustment and discusses the policy implications.