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Dominika Langenmayr
and
Ms. Li Liu
In 2009, the United Kingdom abolished the taxation of profits earned abroad and introduced a territorial tax system. Under the territorial system, firms have strong incentives to shift profits abroad. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we show that the profitability of UK subsidiaries in low-tax countries increased after the reform compared to subsidiaries of non-UK multinationals in the same countries by an average of 2 percentage points. This increase in profit shifting also leads to increases in measured productivity of the foreign affiliates of UK multinationals of between 5 and 9 percent.
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Patrick Gaulé
, and
Geoff Smith
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
The paper analyzes the efficiency and profitability of Japanese banks from 2000-06. It uses a non-parametric approach, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to analyze banks' cost and revenue efficiency. The results show that the performance of Japanese banks has steadily improved since 2001, but there are significant differences within the banking sector, with regional banks being less cost and revenue efficient relative to both City and Trust banks. While Japanese bank profitability is low compared to that in other advanced countries, there is considerable potential for efficiency gains, particularly through increased cost-sharing arrangements among regional banks, consolidation of regional banks with major or other regional banks, and the creation of bank consortia to pool resources for asset and risk management.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines the factors behind the recent surge in capital flows in Japan. The paper presents econometric evidence on the influence of these capital flows on the medium-term dynamics of the yen. It finds that in the case of the yen–dollar rate, nontrade factors affecting capital flows are likely to delay the adjustment of the yen-dollar rate to its long-term equilibrium value. The paper also draws on recent international experiences and trends to identify and review some of the key tax issues and options for meeting these challenges.
International Monetary Fund
This technical note discusses the banking system structure, performance, and medium-term challenges for Switzerland. The note discusses that the Swiss banking sector has been undergoing a substantial consolidation over the last 10 years, but retains a rich collection of institutional types operating in various business segments. Consolidation has been partly driven by competitive pressures following the burst of the housing market bubble and entailed a substantial reduction in the number of institutions and branches. Smaller banks have been also developing owing to various types of cost-sharing arrangements.
Mr. Anastassios Gagales
Swiss growth performance in the past quarter century has been mediocre. The paper finds that conditional income convergence contributes significantly to slow growth and the poor performance of the domestically oriented sectors has been a drag on growth. However, slow growth is not inescapable. Faster growth would require raising total factor productivity growth, which remains low by international standards, and the investment rate. Further progress in structural reform could sustain the underlying growth rate at about 2 percent in the next few years.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines economic growth in Switzerland. It attempts to analyze whether slow growth is inescapable for Switzerland. The paper suggests that income convergence across countries contributes significantly to slow relative growth in Switzerland, but experience in several advanced industrial countries reinforces the view that slow growth is not inescapable. Higher growth will require raising total factor productivity growth, which remains low by international standards, and to a lesser extent, raising the investment rate.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix evaluates Switzerland’s long-term growth and productivity performance. It analyzes the behavior of Swiss fiscal policy over the business cycle and takes a fresh look at the nature of the tradeoff between inflation and economic activity in Switzerland. The paper reports estimates of the automatic and discretionary responses of general government finances to cyclical output movements during 1970–96. It also examines the main options for improving the stabilization role of Switzerland’s fiscal policy over the business cycle.
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix assesses Switzerland’s recent real GDP performance in terms of underlying movements in potential output and the cyclical output gap. The paper highlights that Swiss real GDP has been stagnant since 1990, after expanding at an average rate of some 1¾ percent during 1977–90. The evidence presented indicates that potential output growth during 1991–95 was significantly below historical average. This paper also tries to assess the possible effects of stage 3 of European Monetary Union on Switzerland.