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International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issue Paper studies the relationship between monetary policy, financial conditions, and real activity during the current monetary policy-tightening episode in Switzerland. After a review of various channels through which monetary policy changes affect financial conditions, the paper shows that the transmission of policy rates to market rates has been swift and that the exchange rate is an important channel. The response of real activity to tightening financial conditions has remained broadly in line with past tightening episodes. The interest rate increase has influenced cash flows for households due to higher mortgage interest expenses. Higher interest rates also lead to higher rental cost for non-homeowners. Policy rate adjustments affect the average interest rates of mortgages and thus the mortgage reference interest rate, which is a factor for rent adjustments by Swiss regulation. Monetary tightening has contributed to a slowdown of private credit and house-price growth. Growth of mortgage loans, which represent 85 percent of bank lending, moderated to 2.4 percent in 2023 from 3.5 percent in 2022.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that growth is recovering gradually after slowing in 2023 in Switzerland. In order to counter risks of inflation moving to and settling at very low rates, the rate cut ahead of other central banks was appropriate. Going forward, monetary policy should remain responsive to incoming data, while taking into account international monetary policy developments. Banks have strong buffers, but vulnerabilities related to real estate persist. Ample capital buffers should be maintained, the macroprudential toolkit expanded, supply-side actions to stem pressure on the residential housing market advanced and data gaps closed. The authorities should continue to promote labor market and pension reforms to incentivize labor force participation of women, older workers, and immigrants and address labor shortages, skills gaps, and potential fiscal imbalances. The revised CO2 Act clarifies the policy framework for 2025–2030 but is less ambitious than initially proposed and might require acquiring more emissions-reduction credits from internationally. Advancing negotiations with the EU and enhancing cooperation with other key partners would mitigate uncertainty and strengthen resilience against geo-economic fragmentation risks.
Jakree Koosakul
and
Alexei Miksjuk
The expansion of bilateral swap arrangements (BSAs) since the Global Financial Crisis has led to a substantial reconfiguration of the Global Financial Safety Net (GFSN). This paper examines the drivers of BSA supply using a novel dataset on all publicly documented BSAs. It finds that countries with well-developed financial markets and institutions and high trade openness are more likely to backstop other economies by establishing BSAs. In addition, their choice of BSA counterparts is driven by strong investment and trade exposures to these countries, with variation in the relative importance of these factors across major BSA providers. The paper shows that geopolitical considerations often affect such decisions, as BSAs are less likely to be established between geopolitically distant countries and more likely between countries in the same regional economic bloc.
International Monetary Fund
Data provision by member countries is a key input into the IMF’s surveillance activities. The 2024 Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes took place against the backdrop of profound shifts in the global economy, highlighting the important need for adequate macroeconomic and financial data to inform analysis and policymaking. This Review achieved a substantial, but manageable, update to the overall envelope of data that members are required to provide to the Fund in the areas of public sector, foreign exchange intervention, and macrofinancial indicators. Addressing these data gaps will reduce blind spots and support even-handedness in Fund surveillance. The Review also introduced a more structured and transparent assessment of data adequacy for surveillance. This strengthened framework will facilitate policy dialogue with the authorities on data issues and improve prioritization of capacity development efforts. Finally, the Review confirmed the long-standing practice of not applying the remedial framework when members do not provide certain data categories that the Fund considers outdated.
International Monetary Fund. Institute for Capacity Development
This supplement includes five background papers and provides background information on various aspects of capacity development (CD) for the main Board paper, Review of the Fund’s Capacity Development Strategy—Towards a More Flexible, Integrated, and Tailored Model. It is divided into five sections, each consisting of a different background paper. The five sections cover (1) CD Delivery Modalities; (2) Evaluation and Impact; (3) Regional Capacity Development Centers and Field Presence; (4) HR Policies; and (5) Mapping the Fund’s Position vis-à-vis Other CD Providers.
International Monetary Fund. Finance Dept.
and
International Monetary Fund. Legal Dept.
This paper presents Resilience and Sustainability (RST) contribution agreements finalized with four contributors between October 2023 and March 15, 2024. The concluded agreements provide for contributions in a total amount of about SDR 1.2 billion across the three RST accounts – the loan account, deposit account, and reserve account. The new agreements with four members add critical resources that support the continued smooth operations of the RST.
International Monetary Fund. Communications Department
This issue of F&D takes a fresh look at the discipline of economics. We invited prominent economists with different perspectives to tell us how the profession can become better at answering 21st century challenges.
Robert C. M. Beyer
,
Ruo Chen
,
Florian Misch
,
Claire Li
,
Ezgi O. Ozturk
, and
Lev Ratnovski
The extent to which changes in monetary policy rates lead to changes in loan and deposit rates for households and firms, referred to as ‘pass-through’, is an important ingredient of monetary policy transmission to output and prices. Using data on seven different bank interest rates in 30 European countries, different approaches, and the full sample as well as a subsample of euro area countries, we show that a) the pass-through in the post-pandemic hiking cycle has been heterogenous across countries and types of interest rates; b) the pass-through has generally been weaker and slower, except for rates of non-financial corporation loans and time deposits in euro area countries; c) differences in pass-through over time and across countries for most deposit rates are correlated with financial sector concentration, liquidity, and loan opportunities, and d) the effects of pass-through to outstanding mortgage rates on monetary transmission on prices and output are heterogenous across countries.
Mr. José M. Garrido
Tokens are units digitally represented in a distributed ledger or blockchain. The various uses of this technology have the potential to transform a wide array of economic activities, from traditional commercial transactions to sophisticated financial undertakings. This paper explores the similarities and differences of tokens with traditional legal instruments in commercial law and how tokens could offer superior solutions, provided that proper legal foundations are established for their operation, including aspects of the law of securities and consumer protection law.
Can Sever
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.