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Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Ms. Linda S. Goldberg
and
Signe Krogstrup
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
International Monetary Fund
new common evaluation framework for the Fund’s capacity development (CD) activities. The new common evaluation framework is intended to streamline current practices and increase comparability and use of results by adopting for all CD evaluations a common four-step process that includes use of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC) evaluation criteria. Around this common approach, there is flexibility to adapt evaluations to reflect the wide range of CD activities. Key elements of the framework are grouped around the objectives of: producing shorter, more focused, and more comparable evaluations; improving the information supporting evaluations;spending the same level of resources on evaluations while allocating these scarce resources more efficiently; and using the information from evaluations to alter practices or shift the targeting of CD resources.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper evaluates corporate and banking sector vulnerabilities in India. The analysis shows that while corporate sector risks have subsided, debt repayment capacity remains strained, and high leverage continues to weigh on corporate resilience, which may pose further risks to banks’ asset quality. Public sector banks have stepped up recognition of nonperforming assets, but their debt recovery capacity remains weak. Simulations suggest that potential recapitalization needs, at current provisioning levels, should have a modest fiscal impact.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
International Monetary Fund
The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.
Anna Ter-Martirosyan
,
Ms. Sally Chen
,
Mr. Lawrence Dwight
,
Ms. Mwanza Nkusu
,
Mr. Mehdi Raissi
, and
Ms. Ashleigh Watson
External Assessments in Special Cases presents the pilot External Balances Assessment methodology developed by IMF staff for estimating current account and exchange rate gaps for a group of advanced and emerging market economies, and discusses modifications to take account of special cases. Different approaches to external assessments for countries with special circumstances are evaluated, and some tools presented that could be used to inform sound judgment on the part of those conducting such assessments.
Maria Teresa Punzi
and
W. Christopher Walker
This paper analyzes the determinants of bond flows, now the dominant source of capital inflows, into the United States, as a means of establishing conditions affecting the financing of the U.S. current account deficit. To test the hypothesis that capital flows have become more responsive to changes in relative interest rates and other conditions across borders, a panel data set, showing bond flows from 12 separate jurisdictions into the United States, is constructed for the period 1994-2006 using adjusted U.S. Treasury International Capital Flow (TIC) data. Panel vector autoregression and instrumental variables approaches are used to estimate the impact of changes in interest rate differentials and other fundamentals on capital flows into the U.S. The paper finds evidence for an impact from interest rate differentials to bond inflows that has increased over time. Under one plausible set of theoretical assumptions, the increased sensitivity can be interpreted as resulting from a reduction in home bias on the part of non-US investors.