Where do economic cycles come from? This paper contemplates an utmost minimalistic model and underlying theory that rest on two assumptions for letting them emerge endogenously: (1) the presence of interest-bearing debt; and (2) a degree of downward nominal wage rigidity. Despite its parsimony, the model generates well-behaved, self-evolving limit cycles and replicates six essential empirical facts: (1) booms are long- while recessions short-lived; (2) leverage is procyclical; (3) firm profit and wage shares in GDP are counter- and procyclical, respectively; (4) Phillips curves are downward-sloping and convex, and Okun’s law relation is replicated; (5) default cascades arise endogenously at the turning points to recessions; (6) lending spreads are countercyclical. One can refer to the model as being of a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium (DSGD) kind.
Achieving the primary objective of price stability without unduly compromising the operational efficiency of the payment system constitutes a major problem for central banks. Routine monetary policy presumes a given institutional and technological framework, including aspects of the payment system. Such a monetary policy concerns itself with intraday and interday credit for payments settlements and with float. Liquidity shocks and panics sometimes pose an additional challenge. In recent years, major and rapid institutional and technological changes in the payment system (mainly to lower risks and augment operational efficiency) have affected the monetary policy decision-making process, particularly in the short run.