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Europe > Switzerland

You are looking at 1 - 6 of 6 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Business Fluctuations; Cycles x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Firm Leverage and Boom-Bust Cycles
Can Sever
This paper explores the dynamic relationship between firm debt and real outcomes using data from 24 European economies over the period of 2000-2018. Based on macro data, it shows that a rise in credit to firms is associated with an increase in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth declines in the medium-term. This pattern remains similar, even when the changes in credit to households are accounted for. Next, using data from a large sample of firms, it shows that firm leverage buildups predict similar boom-bust growth cycles in firm employment: Firms with a larger increase in leverage experience a boost in employment growth in the short-term, but employment growth decreases in the medium-term. Relatedly, the volatility of employment growth increases in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups. Finally, this paper provides suggestive evidence on the role of a financial channel in the relationship between firm leverage buildups and employment growth. The results show that a rise in firm leverage is associated with a persistently higher debt service ratio, pointing the drag on finances. Consistently, boom-bust growth cycles in the aftermath of firm leverage buildups are not limited to employment growth, but are also pronounced for investment. Moreover, the medium-term decline in firm employment growth as predicted by leverage buildups becomes even larger if aggregate financial conditions tighten. The findings are in favor of “lean against the wind” approach in policy making.
Keywords:
Firm leverage; firm debt; household debt; leverage cycles; employment; investment; boom-bust cycles; ORBIS; leverage buildup; employment growth; leverage cycle; growth cycle; cycles in the aftermath; Business cycles; Credit; Consumer credit; Credit booms; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Where Have All the Profits Gone? European Bank Profitability Over the Financial Cycle
Ms. Enrica Detragiache
,
Mr. Thierry Tressel
, and
Ms. Rima A Turk
The paper investigates EU banks’ profitability through the recent financial cycle using banklevel balance sheet and income statement data. We find that banks that were more successful at protecting their profits had a less pronounced deterioration in loan quality and a larger improvement in cost efficiency. They also downsized their assets more aggressively during the crisis, and reduced reliance on wholesale funding more markedly post-crisis. Net interest margins remained broadly stable over the financial cycle, including post-crisis, and there is no clear evidence that aspects of bank business model, such as higher reliance on fees and commission income, were associated with better profitability post-crisis.
Keywords:
WP; bank; EU bank; profitability; Financial Cycle; Bank Profitability; Financial Crisis; bank characteristic; bank leverage; bank asset; return on equity; profit growth; bank performance; Bank soundness; Financial cycles; Personal income; Nonperforming loans; Global systemically important banks; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment: Evidence from Advanced Economies
Mr. Abdul d Abiad
,
Davide Furceri
, and
Petia Topalova
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Keywords:
WP; investment shock; public investment; investment; Fiscal policy; Growth; Debt; investment efficiency; efficiency frontier; crowding in; investment behavior well; Public investment spending; Private investment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Okun's Law: Fit at 50?
Laurence M. Ball
,
Mr. Daniel Leigh
, and
Mr. Prakash Loungani
This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Keywords:
WP; absolute value; Unemploymnent; Okun’s law; Economic fluctuations; Law captures factor; Law coefficient; unemployment rate; coefficient estimate; estimates of Okun's Law; unemployment-output relationship; unemployment-employment relation; Unemployment; Employment; Unemployment rate; Output gap; Employment protection
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper describes economic developments in Switzerland during the 1990s. Between 1990 and 1993, real GDP fell by a cumulative 1¼ percent. The tightening of monetary policy in response to rising inflation in the late 1980s induced a contraction in domestic demand that sent the economy into decline in 1991. This decline was prolonged by the downturn of other European economies during 1992–93, although the latter had only a modest effect on Swiss exports, which continued to grow slowly.
Keywords:
nominal GDP; exchange rate; fourth quarter; current account; real GDP; output gap; official development assistance; Monetary base; Employment; Unemployment; Short term interest rates; Current account surpluses; Europe; Global; price deflator; equity price; staff team of the International Monetary Fund; IMF UR; factor income balance; consumer confidence; Economic recession; Inflation