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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
METAC assisted the Libyan Tax Authority in reviewing tax forms to enhance taxpayer data collection. The proposed data set will significantly expand existing information, improving the completeness of taxpayer records and greatly aiding the risk assessment process.
Agustin Velasquez
The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. This can be explained if workers have preferences with income effects outweighing substitution effects. Then, an optimal response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure. In this paper, I develop a novel structural link between trade and aggregate labor supply. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I show that reducing trade barriers leads to fewer hours worked while being compatible with an increase in welfare. In addition, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity and estimate it by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by aggregate trade. On average, I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains 7 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.
Dominika Langenmayr
and
Ms. Li Liu
In 2009, the United Kingdom abolished the taxation of profits earned abroad and introduced a territorial tax system. Under the territorial system, firms have strong incentives to shift profits abroad. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we show that the profitability of UK subsidiaries in low-tax countries increased after the reform compared to subsidiaries of non-UK multinationals in the same countries by an average of 2 percentage points. This increase in profit shifting also leads to increases in measured productivity of the foreign affiliates of UK multinationals of between 5 and 9 percent.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The audited financial statements that follow form Appendix VI of the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report 2021 and can be found, together with Appendixes I through V and other materials, on the Annual Report 2021 web page (www.imf.org/AR2021). They have been reproduced separately here as a convenience for readers. Quarterly updates of the IMF's Finances are available at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/quart/index.htm.

International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Switzerland has navigated the COVID-19 pandemic well. The pandemic has had major social and economic impacts, but an early, strong, and sustained health and economic policy response helped contain the contraction of activity. Coordinated efforts targeting households and firms stemmed a loss of purchasing power and a rise of unemployment and bankruptcies. Recovery has commenced, but uncertainty and risks remain high, dominated by pandemic dynamics. The rebound should deepen, as vaccination proceeds, containment is eased, and domestic and global demand picks up. Fiscal support has been rightly extended in 2021, and monetary policy remains accommodative. Policies should remain supportive until there are clear signs of sustained recovery; the authorities should expand support if needed. Redirection to fostering green, digital transformation with attention to low-income earners will be needed, including to ensure that prolonged emergency support does not hinder structural changes in the economy.
International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Ensuring economic sustainability is key to achieving the IMF’s surveillance mandate of maintaining present and prospective balance of payments and domestic stability, assuring orderly exchange arrangements, and promoting a stable system of exchange rates. A good understanding of issues related to economic sustainability is thus essential for the IMF to provide effective surveillance and policy advice, while it requires a broad perspective and a long time horizon. With respect to the IMF’s surveillance mandate, the principle of macro-criticality, which guides the IMF’s engagement with its members, is sufficiently flexible and broad, allowing the IMF to cover issues related to economic sustainability. At the same time, given the wide range of issues that are related to economic sustainability, IMF surveillance needs to be selective and focused, with the choice of issues made on a case-by-case basis, considering country circumstances. It also needs to leverage the expertise of other institutions when necessary. The IMF and other institutions have advanced work to enhance analytical frameworks and indicators related to economic sustainability, and this should continue.
Mr. Marco Gross
Where do economic cycles come from? This paper contemplates an utmost minimalistic model and underlying theory that rest on two assumptions for letting them emerge endogenously: (1) the presence of interest-bearing debt; and (2) a degree of downward nominal wage rigidity. Despite its parsimony, the model generates well-behaved, self-evolving limit cycles and replicates six essential empirical facts: (1) booms are long- while recessions short-lived; (2) leverage is procyclical; (3) firm profit and wage shares in GDP are counter- and procyclical, respectively; (4) Phillips curves are downward-sloping and convex, and Okun’s law relation is replicated; (5) default cascades arise endogenously at the turning points to recessions; (6) lending spreads are countercyclical. One can refer to the model as being of a Dynamic Stochastic General Disequilibrium (DSGD) kind.
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Patrick Gaulé
, and
Geoff Smith
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
Ruud A. de Mooij
This paper discusses the theory and practice of tax design to achieve an efficient and equitable outcome, i.e. in support of inclusive growth. It starts with a discussion of the key principles from tax theory to guide practical tax design. Then, it elaborates on more granular tax policy, discussing key choices in the structure of the personal income tax on labor and capital income, taxes on wealth, the corporate income tax, and consumption taxes. The paper concludes by highlighting the political economy considerations of the issues with concrete recommedtions as to how to implement tax reform.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Swiss economy has performed relatively well since the global financial crisis. Growth compares favorably with most other advanced countries and aggregate employment has grown robustly. The fiscal position is strong and the external trade surplus remains large and stable despite several episodes of intense appreciation pressure owing to the Swiss franc’s reputation as a safe haven. Growth is expected to temporarily dip to 1.1 percent in 2019 on weakness in external demand. Risks to the outlook are tilted down. Switzerland is also facing several policy challenges: low interest rates are fueling risks in the real estate and mortgage markets; persistent subdued inflation has decreased the operational space for monetary policy; and population aging and technological change will require further upskilling and generate new demands for public resources.