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Europe > Switzerland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 10 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Macroeconomics: Consumption; Saving; Wealth x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Leisure Gains from International Trade
Agustin Velasquez
The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. This can be explained if workers have preferences with income effects outweighing substitution effects. Then, an optimal response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure. In this paper, I develop a novel structural link between trade and aggregate labor supply. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I show that reducing trade barriers leads to fewer hours worked while being compatible with an increase in welfare. In addition, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity and estimate it by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by aggregate trade. On average, I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains 7 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.
Keywords:
Hours worked; leisure; labor supply; Marshallian elasticity; uncompensated elasticity; international trade; Ricardian trade model; trade share; trade openness; hours-to-trade elasticity; Income; Real wages; Employment rate; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Medium-Scale DSGE Model for the Integrated Policy Framework
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
Keywords:
Monetary Policy; Foreign Exchange Intervention; Fiscal Policy; Macroprudential Policy; Capital Flow Management; Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model; Small Open Economy; Policy transmission mechanisms; price inflation; scenario assumption; policy rule parameter; policy rule response coefficient; Mortgages; Consumption; Foreign exchange intervention; Inflation; Capital flow management; Global; Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting Carbon Leakage
Florian Misch
and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations along two lines. First, we exploit recently published data on sector-country-specific changes in energy prices to identify changes in domestic carbon emissions and other flows (rather than the historically limited variation in carbon prices or adherence to international climate agreements). Second, we present a simple accounting framework to derive carbon leakage rates from reduced-form regressions in contrast to existing papers, thereby making our results directly comparable to model-based estimates of carbon leakage. We show that carbon leakage rates differ across countries and could be larger than what existing estimates suggest.
Keywords:
carbon leakage; CO2 content of trade; emission spillovers; competitiveness; carbon leakage; leakage rate; carbon flow; emission constraint; price data; Energy pricing; Energy prices; Greenhouse gas emissions; Consumption; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model
Zineddine Alla
,
Mr. Raphael A Espinoza
, and
Mr. Atish R. Ghosh
We develop an open economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator mechanism. We obtain closed-form solutions for the optimal interest rate policy and FX intervention under discretionary policy, in the face of shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. The solution shows that FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the economy and mitigate the welfare losses associated with such shocks. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, the risk of multiple equilibria (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) is high. We determine the conditions under which indeterminacy can occur and highlight how the use of FX intervention reinforces the central bank’s credibility and limits the risk of multiple equilibria.
Keywords:
WP; risk premium; central bank; Central bank reserves; Speculative attack; Portfolio balance model; Equilibrium determinacy; Capital flows; Capital controls; Open Economy New Keynesian Model.; FX intervention; risk premium shock; open economy; terms of trade; sterilized foreign exchange intervention; working capital; Consumption; Return on investment; Exchange rates; Inflation; Global
Cover Technical Notes and Manuals
The Revenue Administration–Gap Analysis Program: An Analytical Framework for Excise Duty Gap Estimation
Mr. Mick Thackray
The IMF Fiscal Affairs Department’s Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RA-GAP) assists revenue administrations from IMF member countries in monitoring taxpayer compliance through tax gap analysis. The RA-GAP analytical framework for estimating excise gaps presented in this Technical Note sets out the steps and data required for comprehensive top-down gap estimates based on a comparison of actual collections to potential collections, which is estimated from consumption (or use) and expenditure of excise commodities. The note outlines the motivation for, and different approaches to, excise gap estimation; and identifies the design criteria for robust gap estimates. The note was jointly produced by RA-GAP team and the Slovak Republic’s Institute for Financial Policy, piloting the framework for the mineral oils excise gap in Slovakia.
Keywords:
TNM; gap estimate; excise rate; excise gap; compliance risk; gap analysis; Tax Administration; Tax Compliance; Excise; Tax Gap; Tax Avoidance; Tax Evasion; Excise Smuggling; Cross-Border Shopping; Shadow Economy; Non-Observed Economy; excise collection; excise goods; rate change; gap study; understanding excise transaction; Excises; Consumption; Tax administration core functions
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Netherlands: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on a steady increase in current account surpluses in ”Surplus 3” countries—Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland—since the mid-1990s. In Germany and the Netherlands, nonfinancial corporations seem to be behind the rising surpluses. In these countries, increasing corporate profits have not been converted into dividends, keeping a lid on consumption. In Switzerland, household savings seem to explain the bulk of the current account surplus: both mandatory and voluntary savings have been on an increasing trend since 2000. Trending net contributions to pension funds since 2000 and rising equity contribution for housing purchases are likely drivers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; current account surplus; NICs; surplus; income; elasticity assumption; income effect; inflation expectation; elasticity case; labor tax wedge; lending-borrowing balance; substitution effect; government savings-investment balance; current account dynamics; savings-investment surplus; Current account surpluses; Labor supply; Current account; Real effective exchange rates; Trade balance; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Business Cycles in Small Developed Economies: The Role of Terms of Trade and Foreign Interest Rate Shocks
Mr. Jaime Guajardo
Empirical evidence for small developed economies finds that consumption is procyclical and as volatile as output, and real net exports are coutercyclical. Earlier studies have not been able to reproduce these regularities in a DSGE small open economy model when productivity shocks drive the business cycles and households have a normal intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Instead, these studies have reduced this elasticity to make consumption more procyclical and volatile and real net exports countercyclical. This paper shows that a standard model can reproduce these regularities, without lowering the intertemporal substitution, if the terms of trade and foreign interest rate are added as source of business cycle fluctuations. These shocks, compared to productivity shocks, make consumption and investment more volatile and procyclical relative to output, and make real net exports countercyclical.
Keywords:
WP; open economy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Slovenia: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Slovenia; enterprise; enterprise sector; retail price index; Slovenia's share; profit-making company; share of debt; real value; tolar deposit; long-term debt; Slovenia's share of debt; business service; health establishment; batik of Slovenia; Consumption; Pension spending; Imports; Transportation
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Growth of Government and the Reform of the State in Industrial Countries
Ludger Schuknecht
and
Mr. Vito Tanzi
This paper describes the growth of public spending in industrial countries over the past century. It identifies several periods: the periods between 1870 and 1913; the period between the two World Wars; the post World War II period up to 1960; and the period after 1960. Public spending started growing during World War I but its growth accelerated after 1960. The paper outlines the reasons for this growth and speculates that recent government growth has not brought about much economic or social progress. The paper sees the future of government mainly in setting the “rules of the game,” and provides a rough blueprint for reform. It also discusses experiences with government reform in selected count les, and predicts that over the next decades, public spending as a share of GDP will fall.
Keywords:
WP; public expenditure; government Finance Statistics; government expenditure; expenditure policy; government consumption; Total expenditures; Government consumption; Europe; North America; Western Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover Characteristics of a Successful Exchange Rate System
Characteristics of a Successful Exchange Rate System
Mr. Paul R Masson
,
Mr. Morris Goldstein
, and
Mr. Jacob A. Frenkel

Abstract

This study identifies the key characteristics of a successful exchange rate system. It focuses on regimes in the industrial countries and consider the implications for the operation of the international monetary system.

Keywords:
OP; exchange rate commitment; policy; exchange rate system; monetary policy; policy coordination; SDR shrink; current account position; Exchange rates; Real exchange rates; Managed exchange rates; International monetary system; Price stabilization; Global; Europe; Southeast Asia; Australia and New Zealand; Asia and Pacific; Current account imbalances; Conventional peg; Current account