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Europe > Switzerland

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 14 items for :

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issue Paper studies the relationship between monetary policy, financial conditions, and real activity during the current monetary policy-tightening episode in Switzerland. After a review of various channels through which monetary policy changes affect financial conditions, the paper shows that the transmission of policy rates to market rates has been swift and that the exchange rate is an important channel. The response of real activity to tightening financial conditions has remained broadly in line with past tightening episodes. The interest rate increase has influenced cash flows for households due to higher mortgage interest expenses. Higher interest rates also lead to higher rental cost for non-homeowners. Policy rate adjustments affect the average interest rates of mortgages and thus the mortgage reference interest rate, which is a factor for rent adjustments by Swiss regulation. Monetary tightening has contributed to a slowdown of private credit and house-price growth. Growth of mortgage loans, which represent 85 percent of bank lending, moderated to 2.4 percent in 2023 from 3.5 percent in 2022.
Keywords:
mortgage price; market valuation; real estate price development; monetary policy transmission; B. Beveridge Curve dynamics; Real estate prices; Mortgages; Labor markets; Inflation; Central bank policy rate; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Calibrating Macroprudential Policies in Europe Amid Rising Housing Market Vulnerability
Ms. Laura Valderrama
Housing market developments are in the spotlight in Europe. Over-stretched valuations amid tightening financial conditions and a cost-of-living crisis have increased risks of a sustained downturn and exposed challenging trade-offs for macroprudential policy between ensuring financial system resilience and smoothing the macro-financial cycle. Against this backdrop, this paper provides detailed considerations regarding how to (re)set macroprudential policy tools in response to housing-related systemic risk in Europe, providing design solutions to avoid unintended consequences during a tightening phase, and navigating the trade-offs between managing the build-up of vulnerabilities and the macro-financial cycle in a downturn. It also proposes a novel framework to measure the effectiveness of tools and avoid overlaps by quantifying the risks addressed by different macroprudential instruments. Finally, it introduces a taxonomy allowing to assess a country’s macroprudential stance and whether adjustments to current policy settings are warranted—such as the relaxation of capital-based tools and possibly some borrower-based measures in the event of a more severe downturn.
Keywords:
Housing markets; household vulnerability; income distribution; economic cycle; financial stability; macroprudential policy.; Macroprudential policy; housing market vulnerability; Policy tool; calibrating Macroprudential policies in Europe amide; Macroprudential Policy stance framework; Countercyclical capital buffers; Mortgages; Housing prices; Credit; Europe; Global
Cover Global Financial Stability Notes
Commercial Real Estate Prices During COVID-19: What is Driving the Divergence?
Andrea Deghi
,
Mr. Fabio M Natalucci
, and
Mahvash S Qureshi
After dropping sharply in the early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, commercial real estate prices are on the mend. However, the initial price decline, as well as the pace of recovery, vary widely across regions and different segments of the commercial real estate market. This note analyzes the factors that explain this divergence using city-level data from major advanced and emerging market economies. The findings show that pandemic-specific factors such as the stringency of containment measures and the spread of the virus are strongly associated with a decline in prices, while fiscal support and easy financial conditions maintained by central banks have helped to cushion the shock. A higher vaccination rate has aided the recovery of the sector, especially in the retail segment. Structural changes in private behavior such as the trend toward teleworking and e-commerce have also had an impact on commercial property prices in some segments. The outlook of the sector across regions thus remains closely tied to the trajectory of the pandemic and broader macroeconomic recovery, financial market conditions, and the pace of structural shifts in the demand for specific property types. In an environment of tightening financial conditions and a slowdown in economic activity, continued vigilance is warranted on the part of financial supervisors to minimize financial stability risks stemming from potential adverse shocks to the sector.
Keywords:
commercial real estate; COVID-19; pandemic; commercial property; vaccination; real estate prices; price divergence; shut-downs; e-commerce; work from home; price decline; CRE price; vaccination rate; recovery of the sector; price growth; Land prices; North America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
Macroprudential policy intervention; revaluation loss; stress test scenario; D. policy implication; equity investment; B. natural gas reliance in Switzerland; Mortgages; Natural gas sector; Exchange rate revaluation; Foreign assets; International investment position; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
D. policy implication; policies equity; liquidity gap; liquidity shortfall; solvency risk; Housing prices; Foreign assets; Pension spending; Retirement; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stress Testing and Calibration of Macroprudential Policy Tools
Lucyna Gornicka
and
Ms. Laura Valderrama
We present a semi-structural model of default risk, which is a function of loan and borrower characteristics, economic conditions, and the regulatory environment. We use this model to simulate bank credit losses for stress-testing purposes and to calibrate borrower-based macroprudential tools. The proposed approach is very flexible and is particularly useful when there is limited history of crisis episodes, when crises bring unanticipated shocks where past tail events offer little guidance and when structural shocks or changes in financial regulations have altered the loan default process. We apply the model to quantify mortgage lending risk in two distinct mortgage markets. For each application, we show a range of modeling adjustments that can be made to capture country-specific institutional features. The model uses bank portfolio data broken down by risk bucket and vintage, which enables us to take explicit account of the loan life cycle and to incorporate the housing and economic cycles. This feature facilitates a timely assessment of banks’ loss-absorbing capacity and the buildup of systemic risk conditional on policy. It also enables counterfactual analysis and the evaluation of macroprudential policy interventions.
Keywords:
WP; mortgage portfolio; second mortgage; margin call; stress testing; systemic risk; mortgage risk; calibration; simulation; macroprudential policy; loss rate; credit risk; house price; real estate; net present value; housing market; loan loss; Mortgages; Housing prices; Loans; Real estate prices; Global; negative equity; default rate
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Macrofinancial Analysis and Macroprudential Policy
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Financial Sector Assessment Program; Technical Note-Macrofinancial Analysis and Macroprudential Policy
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; mortgage loan; financial market; SNB researcher; SNB analysis; risk weight; bank mortgage; banking system; SNB decision; Pension spending; Mortgages; Financial sector stability; Real estate prices; Countercyclical capital buffers; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: 2019 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The Swiss economy has performed relatively well since the global financial crisis. Growth compares favorably with most other advanced countries and aggregate employment has grown robustly. The fiscal position is strong and the external trade surplus remains large and stable despite several episodes of intense appreciation pressure owing to the Swiss franc’s reputation as a safe haven. Growth is expected to temporarily dip to 1.1 percent in 2019 on weakness in external demand. Risks to the outlook are tilted down. Switzerland is also facing several policy challenges: low interest rates are fueling risks in the real estate and mortgage markets; persistent subdued inflation has decreased the operational space for monetary policy; and population aging and technological change will require further upskilling and generate new demands for public resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; government; government report; Switzerland; FINMA; authorities' interpretation; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; deposit insurance system; safe-haven pressure; Corporate income tax; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Friend or Foe? Cross-Border Linkages, Contagious Banking Crises, and “Coordinated” Macroprudential Policies
Mr. Seung M Choi
,
Ms. Laura E. Kodres
, and
Jing Lu
This paper examines whether the coordinated use of macroprudential policies can help lessen the incidence of banking crises. It is well-known that rapid domestic credit growth and house price growth positively influence the chances of a banking crisis. As well, a crisis in other countries with high trade and financial linkages raises the crisis probability. However, whether such “contagion effects” can operate to reduce crisis probabilities when highly linked countries execute macroprudential policies together has not been fully explored. A dataset documenting countries’ use of macroprudential tools suggests that a “coordinated” implementation of macroprudential policies across highly-linked countries can help to stem the risks of widespread banking crises, although this positive effect may take some time to materialize.
Keywords:
WP; break; banking crisis; center; house price growth; Trade Linkages; Financial Linkages; Financial Crisis; Macroprudential Policies; trade partner; credit growth; loan recipient; crisis probability; Housing prices; Banking crises; Credit; Macroprudential policy; Macroprudential policy instruments; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Switzerland: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Switzerland withstood relatively well the sharp appreciation that followed the exit from the exchange rate floor. Economic performance has continued to firm in 2016 with support from domestic and external demand. GDP growth is forecast to reach 1.5 percent in 2016, and to stabilize at 1.7 percent over the medium term. Inflation is expected to return to positive territory in 2017 and to continue to rise to the middle of the target band. However, important external and domestic risks could affect this outlook, including resurgence in global financial market volatility, renewed concerns about the financial health of large global banks, and changes in Swiss–European Union economic relations.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; risk; output gap; debt; interest rate; brake rule; price development; IMF staff estimate; interest rate environment; FSI website; Exchange rates; Housing prices; Mortgages; Central bank policy rate; Global