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International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The experience of the global economy since the end of the pandemic has been turbulent. The 2024 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to on global challenges, including safeguarding macroeconomic stability, returning to fiscal sustainability, bringing inflation back to targets, and embracing transformative developments. In FY 2024, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 128 country health checks completed. 2) Lending: $70 billion to 30 countries, including about $15 billion to 20 low-income countries, for a total of $357 billion to 97 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $382 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2024 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2023, through April 30, 2024, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2024 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The 2023 IMF Annual Report highlights the IMF’s work to support its members to address successive shocks, including Russia’s war on Ukraine, inflation, debt vulnerabilities, inequality food insecurity, geoeconomic fragmentation, climate change, and digitalization. In FY 2023, the Fund continued to support its members in our three core areas: 1) Economic surveillance: 126 country health checks completed.2) Lending: $74 billion to 36 countries, including about $11 billion to 21 low-income countries, for a total of $294 billion to 96 countries since the start of the pandemic. 3) Capacity development: $337 million for hands-on technical advice, policy-oriented training, and peer learning. The report is also available in Arabic, Chinese, French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, Russian, and Spanish. Note: The 2023 IMF Annual Report covers the activities of the Executive Board and IMF management and staff during the financial year May 1, 2022, through April 30, 2023, and in some cases more recently. Background: The Annual Report website includes the IMF’s financial statements for FY 2023 and other background documentation. The Annual Report and the financial statements are also available online at www.imfbookstore.org or www.elibrary.IMF.org

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The report, available in nine languages, highlights the IMF's work on COVID-19 recovery and the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine; inflation; how to achieve an equitable recovery; debt; and climate change, digital money and inclusion.

Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

This year, as the world faced a crisis like no other, the International Monetary Fund and its member countries swung into action to save lives and put a floor under the world economy. But the outlook remains uncertain. Countries now face a “long ascent” that will be difficult, uneven, uncertain, and prone to setbacks. The IMF is working to help countries focus on "policies for people" to generate a transformational recovery through job-rich growth that benefits all.

Ms. Linda S. Goldberg
and
Signe Krogstrup
This paper presents a new measure of capital flow pressures in the form of a recast Exchange Market Pressure index. The measure captures pressures that materialize in actual international capital flows as well as pressures that result in exchange rate adjustments. The formulation is theory-based, relying on balance of payments equilibrium conditions and international asset portfolio considerations. Based on the modified exchange market pressure index, the paper also proposes the Global Risk Response Index, which reflects the country-specific sensitivity of capital flow pressures to measures of global risk aversion. For a large sample of countries over time, we demonstrate time variation in the effects of global risk on exchange market pressures, the evolving importance of the global factor across types of countries, and the changing risk-on or risk-off status of currencies.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on a steady increase in current account surpluses in ”Surplus 3” countries—Germany, the Netherlands, and Switzerland—since the mid-1990s. In Germany and the Netherlands, nonfinancial corporations seem to be behind the rising surpluses. In these countries, increasing corporate profits have not been converted into dividends, keeping a lid on consumption. In Switzerland, household savings seem to explain the bulk of the current account surplus: both mandatory and voluntary savings have been on an increasing trend since 2000. Trending net contributions to pension funds since 2000 and rising equity contribution for housing purchases are likely drivers.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper aims to provide European Union (EU), while recognizing that the choice of whether to remain in the EU is for U.K. voters to make and that their decisions will reflect both economic and noneconomic factors. The question of EU membership is both a political and an economic issue, and the referendum has sparked a wide-ranging debate on the United Kingdom’s role in the EU. Given the range of plausible alternative arrangements with the EU, the number of channels by which countries could be affected and the range of possible effects on the United Kingdom and other economies are broad.
International Monetary Fund
The external sector assessments use a wide range of methods, including the External Balance Assessment (EBA) developed by the IMF’s Research Department to estimate desired current account balances and real exchange rates (see Annex I of the 2015 External Sector Report, also IMF Working Paper WP/13/272 for a complete description of the EBA methodology). In all cases, the overall assessment is based on the judgment of IMF staff drawing on the inputs provided by these model estimates and other analysis and the estimates are subject to uncertainty. The assessments discuss a broad range of external indicators: the current account, the real effective exchange rate, capital and financial accounts flows and measures, FX intervention and reserves and the foreign asset or liability position. The individual economy assessments are discussed with the respective authorities as a part of bilateral surveillance.