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International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
METAC assisted the Libyan Tax Authority in reviewing tax forms to enhance taxpayer data collection. The proposed data set will significantly expand existing information, improving the completeness of taxpayer records and greatly aiding the risk assessment process.
Agustin Velasquez
The average number of hours worked has been declining in many countries. This can be explained if workers have preferences with income effects outweighing substitution effects. Then, an optimal response to rising income is to reduce labor supply to enjoy more leisure. In this paper, I develop a novel structural link between trade and aggregate labor supply. Using a multi-country Ricardian trade model, I show that reducing trade barriers leads to fewer hours worked while being compatible with an increase in welfare. In addition, I derive an hours-to-trade elasticity and estimate it by exploiting exogenous income variation generated by aggregate trade. On average, I quantify that the rise in trade openness between 1950 and 2014 explains 7 percent of the total decline in hours per worker in high-income countries.
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
This Technical Assistance report on Ghana focuses on the diagnostic mission on macro-relevant climate change statistics. Discussions were conducted during plenary and bilateral sessions with key national stakeholders representing data compilers and users to take stock of work already undertaken on environment and climate change related statistics for Ghana, ongoing capacity development initiatives with other agencies, policy needs and data gaps, and data sources. Secondary priorities including mineral and energy resource and energy statistics, as well as carbon footprints, were identified and it is expected that project participants will agree on a roadmap for their compilation during a second phase of the project after Air Emissions Accounts are compiled. The Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), which is at the center of the national statistical system, will continue to coordinate the collaboration between agencies participating in this project in close consultation with the Environment Protection Agency (EPA). A technical coordinating group will include key stakeholders from the agencies participating in the plenary sessions and be chaired by the GSS and the EPA. Meetings will be held as needed.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation with Switzerland discusses that growth slowed in 2022, while inflation became a new challenge after a decade of ultra-low or negative inflation. Growth is expected to slow further in 2023—driven by the weak global outlook, tighter monetary policy, and cooling of pent-up demand, before recovering to medium-term potential in 2024. Risks are tilted to the downside, with high uncertainty. Two near-term scenarios are noteworthy. First, an abrupt, synchronized global slowdown could take place at the same time as prolonged high inflation in advanced economies, due to monetary policy miscalibration. Passage and implementation of the revised CO2 Law are critical to achieving climate targets; more is needed to ensure secure energy supply. Efforts to ease the tight labor market should continue. The response to higher inflation has been appropriate and should remain data driven, including further rate hikes if needed. If facing depreciation pressures, the Swiss National Bank could continue to reduce foreign exchange (FX) holdings; it should refrain from FX investments to curb appreciation unless due to excessive market volatility.
Dominika Langenmayr
and
Ms. Li Liu
In 2009, the United Kingdom abolished the taxation of profits earned abroad and introduced a territorial tax system. Under the territorial system, firms have strong incentives to shift profits abroad. Using a difference-in-differences research design, we show that the profitability of UK subsidiaries in low-tax countries increased after the reform compared to subsidiaries of non-UK multinationals in the same countries by an average of 2 percentage points. This increase in profit shifting also leads to increases in measured productivity of the foreign affiliates of UK multinationals of between 5 and 9 percent.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Recovery was strong in 2021, but there are headwinds from the war in Ukraine. 2021 output was 1 percent higher than in 2019, but 2 percent below pre-Covid trends; unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels. Inflation has picked up (2.5 percent in April), but below other advanced economies. Strong exports/merchanting led to a higher current account surplus. Although the energy mix (nuclear, hydro) has limited exposure to Russia, exposures of commodity traders and indirect channels could be important. Growth is likely to slow to 2¼ percent in 2022 (¾ ppt. drag from the war). Risks are to the downside (war escalation, Covid developments, real estate). Covid outlays are lower in 2022, but still large (1.2 percent of GDP). Outlays related to Ukraine are likely to be accommodated as extraordinary. The Swiss National Bank is closely monitoring inflation, seeing it returning to the 0–2 percent range this year. The authorities reactivated the sectoral CCyB for residential real estate. They are pursuing pension and labor reforms, climate initiatives, energy security, and renewed EU engagement.
Mr. Tobias Adrian
,
Vitor Gaspar
, and
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper jointly analyzes the optimal conduct of monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, fiscal policy, macroprudential policy, and capital flow management. This policy analysis is based on an estimated medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy, featuring a range of nominal and real rigidities, extensive macrofinancial linkages with endogenous risk, and diverse spillover transmission channels. In the pursuit of inflation and output stabilization objectives, it is optimal to adjust all policies in response to domestic and global financial cycle upturns and downturns when feasible—including foreign exchange intervention and capital flow management under some conditions—to widely varying degrees depending on the structural characteristics of the economy. The framework is applied empirically to four small open advanced and emerging market economies.
International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Abstract

The audited financial statements that follow form Appendix VI of the International Monetary Fund's Annual Report 2021 and can be found, together with Appendixes I through V and other materials, on the Annual Report 2021 web page (www.imf.org/AR2021). They have been reproduced separately here as a convenience for readers. Quarterly updates of the IMF's Finances are available at www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/quart/index.htm.

Florian Misch
and
Mr. Philippe Wingender
This paper estimates the carbon leakage rate across countries, arguably a key parameter in the international climate policy discussion including on border carbon adjustment, but which remains subject to significant uncertainty. We propose innovations along two lines. First, we exploit recently published data on sector-country-specific changes in energy prices to identify changes in domestic carbon emissions and other flows (rather than the historically limited variation in carbon prices or adherence to international climate agreements). Second, we present a simple accounting framework to derive carbon leakage rates from reduced-form regressions in contrast to existing papers, thereby making our results directly comparable to model-based estimates of carbon leakage. We show that carbon leakage rates differ across countries and could be larger than what existing estimates suggest.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Switzerland has navigated the COVID-19 pandemic well. The pandemic has had major social and economic impacts, but an early, strong, and sustained health and economic policy response helped contain the contraction of activity. Coordinated efforts targeting households and firms stemmed a loss of purchasing power and a rise of unemployment and bankruptcies. Recovery has commenced, but uncertainty and risks remain high, dominated by pandemic dynamics. The rebound should deepen, as vaccination proceeds, containment is eased, and domestic and global demand picks up. Fiscal support has been rightly extended in 2021, and monetary policy remains accommodative. Policies should remain supportive until there are clear signs of sustained recovery; the authorities should expand support if needed. Redirection to fostering green, digital transformation with attention to low-income earners will be needed, including to ensure that prolonged emergency support does not hinder structural changes in the economy.