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Western Hemisphere > Belize

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Belize highlights that real gross domestic product growth and inflation moderated in 2023. Belize’s key policy priorities include raising the primary balance with revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to lower public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, adopting growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change and related disasters. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting medium-term growth requires increasing female labor force participation, enhancing access to affordable credit for small and medium size enterprises, reducing crime, improving the business climate, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Keeping vulnerable financial institutions under enhanced supervision and requesting recapitalization when needed is important to maintain financial stability. Strengthening the currency peg requires increasing international reserves by reducing public debt, implementing structural reforms and limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
Keywords:
central bank financing; money market rate; financing of the government; expenditure measure; central bank of Belize; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that economic activity has rebounded strongly from the pandemic in Belize. After growing by 15 percent in 2021 and 12 percent in 2022, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2023 and 2.0 percent over the medium term as spare capacity is exhausted. The key policy priorities include reducing public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, implementing growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting potential growth requires enhancing access to domestic credit, ensuring predictable access to foreign exchange to attract foreign direct investment, reducing crime, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Strengthening the sustainability of the currency peg requires implementing additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms, as well as limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
Keywords:
authorities of Belize; currency peg; authorities project growth; terrorism financing risk; reform agenda; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on Belize in 2020, leading to a 16.7 percent contraction in real GDP and a rise in public debt to an unsustainable level of 133 percent of GDP. To address this situation, the government presented a medium-term plan to lower public debt to 85 percent of GDP in 2025 and 70 percent in 2030 by implementing fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and debt restructuring. Significant progress towards restoring debt sustainability was made in 2021.
Keywords:
expenditure measure; PFM legislation; policy priority; calendar year GDP; central bank of Belize; Policy discussion; IMF team; Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal stance; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Belize has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a deep recession and worsened fiscal and external positions from already weak levels. The opposition People’s United Party won the November 2020 elections by a wide margin, which gives the new government a unique opportunity to jump start much needed reforms to reduce large imbalances and anchor strong and inclusive growth.
Keywords:
currency peg; exchange regime; homegrown adjustment plan; public debt debt ratio; central bank financing; Fiscal stance; Fiscal consolidation; COVID-19; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
External Private Financing and Domestic Revenue Mobilization: A Dilemma?
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Deirdre Daly
, and
Mr. Boileau Loko
Domestic revenue mobilization (DRM) is essential for low-income and emerging economies to sustainably finance their development needs and has received increasing attention in recent years. Studies have centered on structural factors such as the size and the structure of the economy, and the quality of institutions, notably to account for weaknesses in revenue administrations. Nevertheless, DRM can take time and carry political costs. Raising more financing through donors or private investors may be an easier and more politically palatable way for countries to meet spending needs. Using an impact assessment methodology and panel regressions over a sample of 72 developing countries, we found no evidence that access to bond markets or external commercial loans undermines the countries’ efforts to collect tax revenue. On the contrary, we found that access to markets has a positive impact on domestic revenue mobilization. Plausible explanations are that private financing must be repaid, and strong macroeconomic fundamentals are key for maintaining market access. We have also found that macroeconomic stability and the strength of institutions do matter for domestic revenue mobilization.
Keywords:
Domestic revenue mobilization; Bond markets; external commercial debt.; WP; market access; access country; access unit; market discipline effect; market financing; external commercial debt; access group; Revenue mobilization; International bonds; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Bonds; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Excutive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belize is facing multiple challenges. GDP growth slowed to 1 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil production and reduced output in the primary commodity sectors, and turned to negative 1.5 percent in the first half of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015. The decline in oil and other commodity prices led to deflation in 2015. GDP is projected to decline by 1.5 percent in 2016. The current account deficit would slowly improve owing to a gradual recovery in major commodity exports, but would remain high, indicating a weak external position.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax clearance certificate; tax clearance requirement; certificate; income tax tax office; staff appraisal; BTL share; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses key issues of the Belize economy. The economic condition of Belize is characterized by sluggish growth and a weak fiscal stance, which have put public debt on an unsustainable path. Social and poverty challenges remain significant. The unemployment rate remains high compared with its 2008 level of 8 percent, despite a reduction to 12.1 percent in September 2014 from 14.2 percent in September 2013. Per capita GDP remains far below its regional peers. This paper also focuses on measures that would signal credible commitment to fiscal consolidation, strengthen the financial system, and boost economic, growth taking into account constraints on human and financial resources.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Bel share; financing; Bel valuation; deficit; nationalization liability; growth elasticity; Bel settlement; debt level; government of Belize; BTL settlement; debt trajectory; headline inflation; Fiscal stance; International reserves; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF staff report on Belize’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic developments and macroeconomic outlook. Macroeconomic developments in 2012 were underpinned by robust output growth but clouded by uncertainties surrounding the debt restructuring and growth prospects of major trading partners. New provisioning, and loan classification standards implemented by the central bank at end-2011 have resulted in declining nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the banking system and improving provisioning. NPLs remain high at 20 percent of total loans at end-2012, with heavy concentration in one domestic and some international banks. In compliance with the new prudential measures, banks have been required to write off bad loans within 3–5 years.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; resolution framework; restructuring; staff visit; central bank credibility; loan; oil export; IMF special; debt management task force; commodity price pressure; Government debt management; Debt management; Public sector; Caribbean; Global; Europe; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Staff Report for the 2011 Article IV Consultation
International Monetary Fund
The 2011 Article IV Consultation report concludes that Belize has weathered the financial crisis relatively well when compared with Caribbean Community peers. Executive Directors have commended the authorities for their macroeconomic management, which enabled Belize to weather the financial crisis. Although the near-term outlook is positive, challenges arise from the uncertain global environment, rising gross financing needs of the public sector, and the weak investment climate. Directors have emphasized the need to tighten further the fiscal stance and rebuild macroeconomic buffers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; current account; financing; Belize; GDP; financing needs; private sector; fiscal policy; central bank; sensitivity analysis; credit bureau; banking sector; debt service; export credit; medium outlook; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2010 Article IV Consultation-Staff Report; Informational Annex; Staff Statement; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund
The economy of Belize in recent years has been vulnerable to adverse shocks owing to its weak external position, policy rigidities, and reduced access to external financing. Executive Directors commended the authorities for their prudent macroeconomic management during the crisis. Directors emphasized the need for fiscal consolidation strategy, and stressed the need to strengthen the banking system. They supported plans to improve public financial management and tax administration. They welcomed monetary policy framework, liquidity management, and development plan policies, and offered expert assistance as well.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; loan facility; authority; overdue loan; staff appraisal; staff state; Belize economy; Commercial banks; International reserves; Global; Caribbean