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Abstract

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in finding solutions to address the Caribbean’s shared and intertwined macroeconomic and structural challenges. The analysis suggests that strengthening regional and global market integration of Caribbean economies would provide an impetus to sustained growth in incomes and jobs. Greater regional and global economic integration would also facilitate structural transformation and a shift toward new economic activities, resulting in more diversified and less vulnerable economies. A central challenge for the Caribbean is thus to come together as a region, overcome the limitations posed by size, and garner the benefits of globalization. Efforts should build on existing regional arrangements; accelerating progress in implementing these agreements would stimulate trade. Policymakers could also promote deeper integration with Latin America and the rest of the world by pursuing new trade agreements, leveraging current agreements more effectively, or deepening them to include areas beyond traditional trade issues, and developing port and transport infrastructure.

Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Mr. Thomas Dowling
,
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Franz Loyola
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
,
Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei
,
Ms. Inci Ötker
, and
Mr. Jarkko Turunen
The high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Caribbean has been, in large part, a legacy of the global financial crisis, but their persistence owes much to the weak economic recovery in the region, as well as to structural obstacles to their resolution. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address these impediments to sever the adverse feedback loops between weak economic activity and weak asset quality. This paper finds that NPLs are a drag on Caribbean growth and macro-financial links are strong: a deterioration in asset quality hinders bank lending and dampens economic activity, undermining, in turn, efforts to resolve problem loans. A multifaceted approach is needed, involving a combination of macro- economic policies to support growth and employment; strong supervisory frameworks to ensure macro-financial stability and create incentives for resolution; efforts to address informational gaps and deficiencies in insolvency and debt-enforcement frameworks; and development of markets for distressed loans. The institutional capacity constraints require coordination of reforms within the region and support from international organizations through capacity-building.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belize is facing multiple challenges. GDP growth slowed to 1 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil production and reduced output in the primary commodity sectors, and turned to negative 1.5 percent in the first half of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015. The decline in oil and other commodity prices led to deflation in 2015. GDP is projected to decline by 1.5 percent in 2016. The current account deficit would slowly improve owing to a gradual recovery in major commodity exports, but would remain high, indicating a weak external position.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes macro-financial linkages for Belize. The banking system in Belize is facing significant challenges that could have a negative impact on the wider economy. Under adverse scenarios, the loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) could have a sizeable impact on Belize’s economy and financial stability as fewer CBRs, different local banks’ business models, or stricter due diligence requirements could kick many economic agents out of formal trade and finance channels. Threats to the financial system, including those related to money laundering and terrorist financing, should be tackled on multiple fronts, including through closer coordination with regional and global public and private partners.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper discusses three important sectors of Belize economy: financial, sugar market, and energy. Belize’s banking system has continued to strengthen since the 2014 Article IV Consultation in June 2014. Despite recent improvements, some banks’ balance sheets are still weak and exposed to adverse macroeconomic developments. The sugar sector makes a very important contribution to Belize’s economy. The sector is estimated to account for about 4-5 percent of GDP, 9-10 percent of total exports, 8 percent of employment, and 5-6 percent of foreign exchange earnings. But the reform of EU sugar regime, scheduled to take full effect in 2017, will most likely cause a significant drop in the EU sugar price.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This IMF staff report on Belize’s 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights economic developments and macroeconomic outlook. Macroeconomic developments in 2012 were underpinned by robust output growth but clouded by uncertainties surrounding the debt restructuring and growth prospects of major trading partners. New provisioning, and loan classification standards implemented by the central bank at end-2011 have resulted in declining nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the banking system and improving provisioning. NPLs remain high at 20 percent of total loans at end-2012, with heavy concentration in one domestic and some international banks. In compliance with the new prudential measures, banks have been required to write off bad loans within 3–5 years.
International Monetary Fund
The economy of Belize in recent years has been vulnerable to adverse shocks owing to its weak external position, policy rigidities, and reduced access to external financing. Executive Directors commended the authorities for their prudent macroeconomic management during the crisis. Directors emphasized the need for fiscal consolidation strategy, and stressed the need to strengthen the banking system. They supported plans to improve public financial management and tax administration. They welcomed monetary policy framework, liquidity management, and development plan policies, and offered expert assistance as well.
International Monetary Fund
The erosion of EU trade preferences for bananas and sugar will have immediate negative implications for Belize’s economy. This paper suggests ways to enhance public debt management in Belize. The vulnerability of the banking sector appears relatively modest. However, the current level of loan-loss provisions and collateral valuation rules are not up to the international standards. Important steps have been taken to further improve compliance with the Basel Core Principles. The importance of debt-service reduction through sound macroeconomic policies is highlighted.
International Monetary Fund
The authorities' economic policy seeks to sustain strong economic growth mainly through low taxes, large public investment, and the provision of credit to the private sector through the state-owned Development Finance Corporation (DFC). The authorities expect the resulting high rate of economic growth to generate sufficient fiscal resources to reduce the public sector deficit and service the rapidly accumulating external public debt. Executive Directors welcomed the authorities' intention to reduce excess liquidity to help secure the sustainability of the exchange rate.