International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issue paper documents the recent episode of food inflation and food insecurity in Belize. The paper also overviews what policies were announced in Belize and the Caribbean during the recent cost-of-living crisis; and discusses the policies Belize could implement to protect its most vulnerable households from the threat of food insecurity going forward. It discusses the appropriate policies to protect vulnerable households from food price inflation going forward based on economic theory and best practices and estimates how much it would cost the government of Belize to protect the vulnerable population against a rise in food prices like the one in 2022. The authorities should evaluate the impact of the recent policy that regulates mark-ups on essential goods by wholesale and retail operators when they have sufficient data. The limits on the mark-up for 32 essential goods were introduced to limit the increase in food prices and avoid monopolistic practices.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper studies inflation dynamics in Belize with the goal of quantifying the role of external and domestic factors in the recent inflationary episode and projecting inflation going forward. The paper applies a Principal Component Analysis to inflation data of several countries and finds that global factors have contributed substantially to both the historical variation and the recent surge in Belize’s inflation. Global factors explain most of the recent surge in inflation in Belize and are projected to reduce inflation going forward. An estimated Phillips curve also finds that external factors, proxied by food and fuel prices and US inflation, have been a key driver in the surge in Belize’s inflation during the last two years. The estimation results show that external factors have significant effects on Belize’s inflation.