Western Hemisphere > Belize

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International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
and
World Bank
The aim of this note is to help stakeholders optimize their decision-making on when, where, and how to use debt-for-development swaps (“debt swaps”), ensuring they bring the intended benefits to all parties involved. It also proposes new approaches to structure these mechanisms, making them less transaction-heavy and more sustainable while maintaining accountability for fulfilling policy and spending commitments. Debt swaps are agreements between a government and one or more of its creditors to replace existing sovereign debt with one or more liabilities1 that include a spending commitment towards a specific development goal. These goals may include nature conservation, climate action, education, nutrition, support for refugees, among others. The spending commitment is often associated with the country's decision to pursue an important development policy.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Belize highlights that real gross domestic product growth and inflation moderated in 2023. Belize’s key policy priorities include raising the primary balance with revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to lower public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, adopting growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change and related disasters. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting medium-term growth requires increasing female labor force participation, enhancing access to affordable credit for small and medium size enterprises, reducing crime, improving the business climate, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Keeping vulnerable financial institutions under enhanced supervision and requesting recapitalization when needed is important to maintain financial stability. Strengthening the currency peg requires increasing international reserves by reducing public debt, implementing structural reforms and limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issue paper documents the recent episode of food inflation and food insecurity in Belize. The paper also overviews what policies were announced in Belize and the Caribbean during the recent cost-of-living crisis; and discusses the policies Belize could implement to protect its most vulnerable households from the threat of food insecurity going forward. It discusses the appropriate policies to protect vulnerable households from food price inflation going forward based on economic theory and best practices and estimates how much it would cost the government of Belize to protect the vulnerable population against a rise in food prices like the one in 2022. The authorities should evaluate the impact of the recent policy that regulates mark-ups on essential goods by wholesale and retail operators when they have sufficient data. The limits on the mark-up for 32 essential goods were introduced to limit the increase in food prices and avoid monopolistic practices.
International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
This technical assistance report on Belize focuses on transition to accrual accounting. Belize is planning to transition to accrual accounting over the medium term. This reform is considered an advanced practice on the public financial management (PFM) spectrum and has been attempted by few regional comparators. The transition to accruals is a complex, resource-intensive and advanced reform that requires various preconditions to be met. The current organization and responsibilities of Treasury staff do not support the transition to accruals. Accounting reforms will take time to implement and require change management processes if they are to succeed. The Treasury does not currently have a change management culture to manage reforms and track performance. A new unit should be created to oversee change management, strategic planning, performance management, risk management as well as monitoring and evaluation. A PFM coordinating committee, chaired by the Financial Secretary, should be established to strengthen planning and internal collaboration.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that economic activity has rebounded strongly from the pandemic in Belize. After growing by 15 percent in 2021 and 12 percent in 2022, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2023 and 2.0 percent over the medium term as spare capacity is exhausted. The key policy priorities include reducing public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, implementing growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting potential growth requires enhancing access to domestic credit, ensuring predictable access to foreign exchange to attract foreign direct investment, reducing crime, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Strengthening the sustainability of the currency peg requires implementing additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms, as well as limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
Mr. Serhan Cevik
Global warming is the most significant threat to ecosystems and people’s health and living standards, especially in small island states in the Caribbean and elsewhere. This paper contributes to the debate by analyzing different options to scale up climate change mitigation and adaptation. In particular, the empirical analysis indicates that increasing energy efficiency and reducing the use of fossil fuel in electricity generation could lead to a significant reduction in carbon emissions, while investing in physical and financial resilience would yield long-run benefits. From a risk-reward perspective, the advantages of reducing the risks associated with climate change and the health benefits from higher environmental quality clearly outweigh the potential cost of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short run. The additional revenue generated by environmental taxes could be used to compensate the most vulnerable households, building a multilayered safety net, and strengthening structural resilience.
Mr. Marcos d Chamon
,
Erik Klok
,
Mr. Vimal V Thakoor
, and
Mr. Jeromin Zettelmeyer
This paper compares debt-for-climate swaps—partial debt relief operations conditional on debtor commitments to undertake climate-related investments—to alternative fiscal support instruments. Because some of the benefits of debt-climate swaps accrue to non-participating creditors, they are generally less efficient forms of support than conditional grants and/or broad debt restructuring (which could be linked to climate adaptation when the latter significantly reduces credit risk). This said, debt-climate swaps could be superior to conditional grants when they can be structured in a way that makes the climate commitment de facto senior to debt service; and they could be superior to comprehensive debt restructuring in narrow settings, when the latter is expected to produce large economic dislocations and the debt-climate swap is expected to materially reduce debt risks (and achieve debt sustainability). Furthermore, debt-climate swaps could be useful to expand fiscal space for climate investment when grants or more comprehensive debt relief are just not on the table. The paper explores policy actions that would benefit both debt-climate swaps and other forms of climate finance, including developing markets for debt instruments linked to climate performance.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The COVID-19 pandemic had a severe impact on Belize in 2020, leading to a 16.7 percent contraction in real GDP and a rise in public debt to an unsustainable level of 133 percent of GDP. To address this situation, the government presented a medium-term plan to lower public debt to 85 percent of GDP in 2025 and 70 percent in 2030 by implementing fiscal consolidation, structural reforms, and debt restructuring. Significant progress towards restoring debt sustainability was made in 2021.
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Belize has been hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to a deep recession and worsened fiscal and external positions from already weak levels. The opposition People’s United Party won the November 2020 elections by a wide margin, which gives the new government a unique opportunity to jump start much needed reforms to reduce large imbalances and anchor strong and inclusive growth.