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Western Hemisphere > Belize

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Belize highlights that real gross domestic product growth and inflation moderated in 2023. Belize’s key policy priorities include raising the primary balance with revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization to lower public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, adopting growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change and related disasters. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting medium-term growth requires increasing female labor force participation, enhancing access to affordable credit for small and medium size enterprises, reducing crime, improving the business climate, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Keeping vulnerable financial institutions under enhanced supervision and requesting recapitalization when needed is important to maintain financial stability. Strengthening the currency peg requires increasing international reserves by reducing public debt, implementing structural reforms and limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
Keywords:
central bank financing; money market rate; financing of the government; expenditure measure; central bank of Belize; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that economic activity has rebounded strongly from the pandemic in Belize. After growing by 15 percent in 2021 and 12 percent in 2022, real GDP is projected to grow by 2.4 percent in 2023 and 2.0 percent over the medium term as spare capacity is exhausted. The key policy priorities include reducing public debt to a level that provides sufficient buffers, increasing expenditure in priority areas, implementing growth enhancing structural reforms, and building resilience to climate change. These policies would boost growth and make it more inclusive. Boosting potential growth requires enhancing access to domestic credit, ensuring predictable access to foreign exchange to attract foreign direct investment, reducing crime, and adopting a disaster resilience strategy that strengthens structural, financial, and post-disaster resilience and is based on a multi-year macro-fiscal framework. Strengthening the sustainability of the currency peg requires implementing additional fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms, as well as limiting government financing by the Central Bank.
Keywords:
authorities of Belize; currency peg; authorities project growth; terrorism financing risk; reform agenda; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Belize focused on structural reforms to raise growth and social inclusion; strengthening resilience to natural disasters; balanced medium-term fiscal consolidation; tax reform; and strengthening financial oversight and anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism actions. Public debt remains above 90 percent of gross domestic product, the current account deficit is projected to remain large over the medium term, and international reserves are just below three months of imports of goods and services. The pace of structural reform has been slow. Downside risks, including from slower US growth, natural disasters, crime, and renewed pressures on correspondent banking relationships could weaken growth and financial stability. Belize is adapting its tax regime in response to concerns from multilateral institutions regarding potentially harmful features. Sustaining Belize’s recent economic expansion, spurring private investment, and facilitating structural diversification hinges on strengthening the business environment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; policy; policy priority; Belize; resilience building; tax framework; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; exchange regime; government's Fiscal Strategy; Natural disasters; Tourism; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of Belize’s tourism sector and main achievements and discusses the country’s comparative advantages and bottlenecks in tourism. It also analyzes the impact of structural and institutional reforms on tourist arrivals. The outturns in tourism have significantly exceeded targets set in the authorities’ National Sustainable Tourism Masterplan (NSTMP). The implementation of the NSTMP reforms has supported the tourism sector’s expansion. In order to guide the development of the tourism sector, the NSTMP 2011 proposes reforms and targets to propel Belize into an internationally recognized tourist destination by 2030. The emergence of the shared economy business model has also brought new challenges, in addition to opportunities. The benefits of the peer-to-peer accommodation available to customers on digital platforms include the expansion of tourism product, service, and sector offerings; improved access to market; and opportunities for income generation. It is imperative that reforms in the near term should focus on addressing the impact of recurring natural hazards, infrastructure bottlenecks, fortifying the institutional and governance framework, reducing crime, and mitigating concerns relating to the shared economy.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Belize; firm; tourism sector; loss-making firm; cruise tourism expenditure; EPZ company; company need; tourism indicators performance; Corporate income tax; Tourism; Income and capital gains taxes; Income tax systems; Consumption taxes; Caribbean; Global; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tourism In Belize: Ensuring Sustained Growth
Mr. Julian T Chow
Belize’s tourism sector has witnessed impressive growth in recent years with overnight tourist arrivals registering double digit annual growth rates since 2016. To guide the development of the tourism sector from 2012 to 2030, the government endorsed a National Sustainable Tourism Master Plan in 2011, setting various initiatives and targets for the immediate and medium terms. Using a panel regression analysis on twelve Caribbean countries, this paper finds that accelerating structural reforms, fortifying governance frameworks, reducing crime, and mitigating the impact of natural disasters will help sustain tourism growth in Belize and contribute to economic well-being. This is in addition to tackling infrastructure bottlenecks and mitigating concerns relating to the “shared economy”.
Keywords:
WP; tourism sector; sub; Belize; cruise tourism expenditure; tourism indicators performance; tourism competitiveness; tourism destination; tourism Arrivals; tourism value chain; Tourism; Natural disasters; Infrastructure; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reinvigorating Growth in Belize
Dmitry Vasilyev
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Belize grew faster than its regional peers. By the mid-2000s, however, economic growth had slowed down to the regional average. A vicious circle of low growth and increasing public debt has been clouding Belize’s outlook. This paper applies a growth diagnostic approach based on the Hausmann-Rodrik-Velasco framework to investigate the main growth constraints and opportunities for higher growth in Belize. Improvements in access to finance and in the business climate could unlock Belize’s strengths.
Keywords:
WP; Belize; economy; cost; goods export; growth diagnostics; development policies; structural transformation; peer economy; growth performance; export diversification index; Belize's growth; diversification indicator; tourism industry; Total factor productivity; Income; Tourism; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Debit Sustainability Analysis and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Belize’s economic growth has slowed over the last five years, following decades of outperforming regional peers. As in other countries in the region, a central challenge is exiting the cycle of low growth and elevated public debt. Belize’s 2017 debt rescheduling provided cash flow relief. In March 2017, the government reached a restructuring agreement with private external bondholders on its US$526 million bond (about 30 percent of GDP).1 As part of the agreement, the authorities committed to tighten the fiscal stance by 3.0 percentage points in FY2017/18 and to maintain a primary surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP for the subsequent three years. The authorities are delivering on these commitments and have made progress in implementing recent Article IV recommendations (Annex I).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF-World Bank Climate Change Policy Assessment; policy priority; IMF staff estimate; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; growth prospect; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Investment Scaling-up and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Energy Sector Investments in the Caribbean
Ahmed El-Ashram
The question of how scaling up public investment could affect fiscal and debt sustainability is key for countries needing to fill infrastructure gaps and build resilience. This paper proposes a bottom-up approach to assess large public investments that are potentially self-financing and reflect their impact in macro-fiscal projections that underpin the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework. Using the case of energy sector investments in Caribbean countries, the paper shows how to avoid biases against good projects that pay off over long horizons and ensure that transformative investments are not sacrificed to myopic assessments of debt sustainability risks. The approach is applicable to any macro-critical investment for which user fees can cover financing costs and which has the potential to raise growth without crowding-out.
Keywords:
WP; cost saving; energy investment; investment project; investment scaling-up; management framework; Public Investment; Debt Sustainability; Growth; Energy Reform; Caribbean; User Fees; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public sector
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Excutive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belize is facing multiple challenges. GDP growth slowed to 1 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil production and reduced output in the primary commodity sectors, and turned to negative 1.5 percent in the first half of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015. The decline in oil and other commodity prices led to deflation in 2015. GDP is projected to decline by 1.5 percent in 2016. The current account deficit would slowly improve owing to a gradual recovery in major commodity exports, but would remain high, indicating a weak external position.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax clearance certificate; tax clearance requirement; certificate; income tax tax office; staff appraisal; BTL share; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Caribbean Energy: Macro-Related Challenges
Arnold McIntyre
,
Ahmed El-Ashram
,
Mr. Márcio Valério Ronci
,
Julien Reynaud
,
Ms. Natasha X Che
,
Ke Wang
,
Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
, and
Mr. Mark Scott Lutz
High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
Keywords:
WP; electric energy; oil price; Energy Reform; Oil Price Shocks; Caribbean; Economic Growth; Renewable Energy; Energy Efficiency; Public Investment; Infrastructure; Debt Sustainability; PPP; cost saving; core inflation; energy efficiency cost curve; financing terms; net exporter; recovery mechanism; generation cost assumption; fuel cost recovery mechanism; capital cost; oil price development; energy investment; Oil prices; Energy sector; Energy prices; Global