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Western Hemisphere > Belize

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Climate Change Policy Assessment
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Belize is exceptionally vulnerable to natural disasters and climate change. It already faces hurricanes, flooding, sea level rise, coastal erosion, coral bleaching, and droughts, with impacts likely to intensify given expected increases in weather volatility and sea temperature. Hence, planning for resilience-building, and engagement with development partners on environmental reforms, have been central to Belizean policymaking for many years, since well before Belize submitted its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the Paris Accord in 2015. This Climate Change Policy Assessment (CCPA) takes stock of Belize’s plans to manage its climate response, from the perspective of their macroeconomic and fiscal implications. The CCPA is a joint initiative by the IMF and World Bank to assist small states to understand and manage the expected economic impact of climate change, while safeguarding long-run fiscal and external sustainability. It explores the possible impact of climate change and natural disasters on the macroeconomy and the cost of Belize’s planned response. It suggests macroeconomically relevant reforms that could strengthen the likelihood of success of the national strategy and identifies policy gaps and resource needs.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; financial support; insurance coverage; risk pooling; budget system; capital expenditure; international community; mitigation strategy; climate change; capital budget; renewable energy; waste management; Climate change; Natural disasters; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Greenhouse gas emissions; Public investment spending; Caribbean; Central America; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; Debit Sustainability Analysis and Statement by the Executive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Belize’s economic growth has slowed over the last five years, following decades of outperforming regional peers. As in other countries in the region, a central challenge is exiting the cycle of low growth and elevated public debt. Belize’s 2017 debt rescheduling provided cash flow relief. In March 2017, the government reached a restructuring agreement with private external bondholders on its US$526 million bond (about 30 percent of GDP).1 As part of the agreement, the authorities committed to tighten the fiscal stance by 3.0 percentage points in FY2017/18 and to maintain a primary surplus of 2.0 percent of GDP for the subsequent three years. The authorities are delivering on these commitments and have made progress in implementing recent Article IV recommendations (Annex I).
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; IMF-World Bank Climate Change Policy Assessment; policy priority; IMF staff estimate; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; growth prospect; Fiscal stance; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Public sector; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Belize's 2016-17 Sovereign Debt Restructuring - Third Time Lucky?
Mr. Tamon Asonuma
,
Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou
,
Eriko Togo
, and
Mr. Bert van Selm
This paper examines the causes, processes, and outcomes of Belize’s 2016–17 sovereign debt restructuring—its third episode in last 10 years. As was the case in the earlier two restructurings, in 2006–07 and in 2012–13, the 2016–17 debt restructuring was executed through collaborative engagement with creditors outside an IMF-supported program. While providing liquidity relief and partially addressing long-term debt sustainability concerns, the restructuring will need to be underpinned by ambitious fiscal consolidation and growth-enhancing structural reforms to secure durable gains.
Keywords:
WP; debt; Belize; restructuring experience; Sovereign Debt; Sovereign Defaults; Sovereign Debt Restructurings; Serial Debt Restructurings; restructuring process; debt sustainability concern; NPV haircut; debt portfolio risk; IMF engagement; Belize bond price; restructuring approach; U.S. dollar; face value; coupon rate; amendment terms; debt restructuring process; Debt restructuring; Bonds; Sovereign debt restructuring; Fiscal consolidation; Caribbean
Cover Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean
Unleashing Growth and Strengthening Resilience in the Caribbean

Abstract

This book provides a diagnosis of the central economic and financial challenges facing Caribbean policymakers and offers broad policy recommendations for promoting a sustained and inclusive increase in economic well-being. The analysis highlights the need for Caribbean economies to make a concerted effort to break the feedback loops between weak macroeconomic fundamentals, notably pertaining to fiscal positions and financial sector strains, and structural impediments, such as high electricity costs, limited financial deepening, violent crime, and brain drain, which have depressed private investment and growth. A recurring theme in the book is the need for greater regional coordination in finding solutions to address the Caribbean’s shared and intertwined macroeconomic and structural challenges. The analysis suggests that strengthening regional and global market integration of Caribbean economies would provide an impetus to sustained growth in incomes and jobs. Greater regional and global economic integration would also facilitate structural transformation and a shift toward new economic activities, resulting in more diversified and less vulnerable economies. A central challenge for the Caribbean is thus to come together as a region, overcome the limitations posed by size, and garner the benefits of globalization. Efforts should build on existing regional arrangements; accelerating progress in implementing these agreements would stimulate trade. Policymakers could also promote deeper integration with Latin America and the rest of the world by pursuing new trade agreements, leveraging current agreements more effectively, or deepening them to include areas beyond traditional trade issues, and developing port and transport infrastructure.

Keywords:
BOOK; cost; bank; Caribbean economy; respondent bank; firm employment distribution; tourism flow; World Bank enterprise Survey; Nonperforming loans; Tax incentives; Natural disasters; Correspondent banking; Caribbean; Global; Central America; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Problem Loans in the Caribbean: Determinants, Impact and Strategies for Resolution
Ms. Kimberly Beaton
,
Mr. Thomas Dowling
,
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Franz Loyola
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
,
Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei
,
Ms. Inci Ötker
, and
Mr. Jarkko Turunen
The high level of nonperforming loans (NPLs) in the Caribbean has been, in large part, a legacy of the global financial crisis, but their persistence owes much to the weak economic recovery in the region, as well as to structural obstacles to their resolution. A comprehensive strategy is needed to address these impediments to sever the adverse feedback loops between weak economic activity and weak asset quality. This paper finds that NPLs are a drag on Caribbean growth and macro-financial links are strong: a deterioration in asset quality hinders bank lending and dampens economic activity, undermining, in turn, efforts to resolve problem loans. A multifaceted approach is needed, involving a combination of macro- economic policies to support growth and employment; strong supervisory frameworks to ensure macro-financial stability and create incentives for resolution; efforts to address informational gaps and deficiencies in insolvency and debt-enforcement frameworks; and development of markets for distressed loans. The institutional capacity constraints require coordination of reforms within the region and support from international organizations through capacity-building.
Keywords:
WP; NPL ratio; asset quality; NPL resolution; economic activity; Macro-financial linkages; nonperforming loans; resolution; the Caribbean; affect bank lending; Loans; Distressed assets; Credit; Collateral; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Loss of Correspondent Banking Relationships in the Caribbean: Trends, Impact, and Policy Options
Mr. Trevor Serge Coleridge Alleyne
,
Mr. Jacques Bouhga-Hagbe
,
Mr. Thomas Dowling
,
Dmitriy Kovtun
,
Ms. Alla Myrvoda
,
Mr. Joel Chiedu Okwuokei
, and
Mr. Jarkko Turunen
Banks across the Caribbean have lost important Correspondent Banking Relationships (CBRs). The macroeconomic impact has so far been limited, in part because banks either have multiple relationships or have been successful in replacing lost CBRs. However, the cost of services has increased substantially, some services have been cut back, and some sectors have experienced reduced access. Policy options to address multiple drivers, including lower profitability and risk aversion by global banks, require tailored actions by several stakeholders.
Keywords:
WP; respondent bank; BIS bank liability; bank service; CBR transaction; central bank; Caribbean; small states; corrrespondent banking; AML/CFT; remittances; fintech; loss of CBR; banks in the Caribbean; Correspondent banking; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Offshore financial centers; Commercial banks; Compliance costs; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Investment Scaling-up and Debt Sustainability: The Case of Energy Sector Investments in the Caribbean
Ahmed El-Ashram
The question of how scaling up public investment could affect fiscal and debt sustainability is key for countries needing to fill infrastructure gaps and build resilience. This paper proposes a bottom-up approach to assess large public investments that are potentially self-financing and reflect their impact in macro-fiscal projections that underpin the IMF’s Debt Sustainability Analysis Framework. Using the case of energy sector investments in Caribbean countries, the paper shows how to avoid biases against good projects that pay off over long horizons and ensure that transformative investments are not sacrificed to myopic assessments of debt sustainability risks. The approach is applicable to any macro-critical investment for which user fees can cover financing costs and which has the potential to raise growth without crowding-out.
Keywords:
WP; cost saving; energy investment; investment project; investment scaling-up; management framework; Public Investment; Debt Sustainability; Growth; Energy Reform; Caribbean; User Fees; Public investment spending; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Public sector
Cover Policy Papers
Recent Trends in Correspondent Banking Relationships: Further Considerations
International Monetary Fund
Correspondent banking relationships (CBRs), which facilitate global trade and economic activity, have been under pressure in several countries. So far, cross-border payments have remained stable and economic activity has been largely unaffected, despite a recent slight decrease in the number of CBRs. However, in a limited number of countries, financial fragilities have been accentuated as their cross-border flows are concentrated through fewer CBRs or maintained through alternative arrangements. These fragilities could undermine affected countries’ long-run growth and financial inclusion prospects by increasing costs of financial services and negatively affecting bank ratings.
Keywords:
PP; respondent bank; CBR withdrawal; due diligence; risk tolerance; payment flow; risk appetite; central bank; Correspondent banking; Anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT); Remittances; Foreign banks; Compliance costs; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes macro-financial linkages for Belize. The banking system in Belize is facing significant challenges that could have a negative impact on the wider economy. Under adverse scenarios, the loss of correspondent banking relationships (CBRs) could have a sizeable impact on Belize’s economy and financial stability as fewer CBRs, different local banks’ business models, or stricter due diligence requirements could kick many economic agents out of formal trade and finance channels. Threats to the financial system, including those related to money laundering and terrorist financing, should be tackled on multiple fronts, including through closer coordination with regional and global public and private partners.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; central bank; banking system; balance sheets; capital buffer; international bank; nominal GDP; Choice bank Ltd.; domestic bank; vis-à-vis counterparties resident; balance sheets link; vis-à-vis BIS bank; counterparties resident; bank capital; bank F; Belizean bank; Belizean banks' borrowing from BIS bank; loss of CBRS; Commercial banks; Foreign banks; Correspondent banking; Loans; Bank deposits; Global; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belize: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Excutive Director for Belize
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of Belize is facing multiple challenges. GDP growth slowed to 1 percent in 2015 owing to falling oil production and reduced output in the primary commodity sectors, and turned to negative 1.5 percent in the first half of 2016 relative to the same period in 2015. The decline in oil and other commodity prices led to deflation in 2015. GDP is projected to decline by 1.5 percent in 2016. The current account deficit would slowly improve owing to a gradual recovery in major commodity exports, but would remain high, indicating a weak external position.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; tax clearance certificate; tax clearance requirement; certificate; income tax tax office; staff appraisal; BTL share; Fiscal stance; Public sector; Global; Caribbean