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Europe > Belarus, Republic of

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Gold as International Reserves: A Barbarous Relic No More?
Mr. Serkan Arslanalp, Mr. Barry J. Eichengreen, and Chima Simpson-Bell
After moving slowly downward for the better part of four decades, central bank gold holdings have risen since the Global Financial Crisis. We identify 14 “active diversifiers,” defined as countries that purchased gold and raised its share in total reserves by at least 5 percentage points over the last two decades. In contrast to the diversification of foreign currency reserves, which has been undertaken by advanced and developing country central banks alike, active diversifiers into gold are exclusively emerging markets. We document two sets of factors contributing to this trend. First, gold appeals to central bank reserve managers as a safe haven in periods of economic, financial and geopolitical volatility, when the return on alternative financial assets is low. Second, the imposition of financial sanctions by the United States, United Kingdom, European Union and Japan, the main reserve-issuing economies, is associated with an increase in the share of central bank reserves held in the form of gold. There is some evidence that multilateral sanctions imposed by these, and other countries have a larger impact than unilateral sanctions on the share of reserves held in gold, since the latter leave scope for shifting reserves into the currencies of other non-sanctioning countries.
Keywords:
International Reserves; Gold; Sanctions; aggregate gold share regression; gold appeal; share of gold; gold share; country level gold share regression; Gold reserves; Reserve assets; Gold prices; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
St. Vincent and the Grenadines is recovering from the pandemic and 2021 volcanic eruptions. Despite the authorities’ strong efforts to contain deficits, critical fiscal responses to these shocks pushed up public debt, which—while assessed as sustainable—remains at high risk of distress should future shocks materialize. The economy is projected to grow by 5 percent in 2022, supported by large-scale investment projects and recoveries in tourism and agriculture. Surging commodity prices, fueled by Russia’s war in Ukraine, are expected to raise inflation sharply to 5.8 percent in 2022, adding to fiscal and external pressures and weighing on the recovery. So far, the financial system has weathered the shocks relatively well. The outlook is subject to significant downside risks primarily from an abrupt slowdown in trading partners’ growth, potential delays in investment projects including due to supply chain disruptions, and the ever-present threat of frequent natural disasters.
Keywords:
St. Vincent and the Grenadines economy; Vincentian authorities; authorities of St. Vincent and the Grenadines; resilience building; CPI basket; reconstruction activity; Natural disasters; Fiscal stance; Caribbean; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Accounts and Balance Sheet Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The remote technical assistance (TA) mission provided guidance to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BelStat) on the preliminary estimates of the Financial Accounts and Balance Sheets (FABS) for 2017. The TA mission assisted with compiling the revaluation and the other changes in volume accounts to give better consistency to the financial flows and stocks and improve the reconciliation process of the FABS. BelStat is in charge of compiling the current accounts for all the institutional sectors and is starting to compile the financial accounts for which important progress has been made. To regularly compile FABS, the mission recommended that BelStat addresses the discrepancies between the net lending/borrowing from the capital and the financial account by incorporating more data sources such as government’s financial stocks and business accounting data. The TA mission also provided guidance on compiling the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) to get a more consistent estimate. The mission highlighted the progress made and encouraged BelStat to continue working on compiling FABS for 2017 and onwards.
Keywords:
financial accounts; balance sheets; stocks; flows; balance sheet Statistics; IMF's Statistics Department; balance sheet statistics; business accounting data; BelStat staff; accounting data; Financial statements; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Capital account
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Accounts and Balance Sheet Statistics Mission
International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
The remote technical assistance (TA) mission provided guidance to the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus (BelStat) on the preliminary estimates of the Financial Accounts and Balance Sheets (FABS) for 2017. The TA mission assisted with compiling the revaluation and the other changes in volume accounts to give better consistency to the financial flows and stocks and improve the reconciliation process of the FABS. BelStat is in charge of compiling the current accounts for all the institutional sectors and is starting to compile the financial accounts for which important progress has been made. To regularly compile FABS, the mission recommended that BelStat addresses the discrepancies between the net lending/borrowing from the capital and the financial account by incorporating more data sources such as government’s financial stocks and business accounting data. The TA mission also provided guidance on compiling the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) to get a more consistent estimate. The mission highlighted the progress made and encouraged BelStat to continue working on compiling FABS for 2017 and onwards.
Keywords:
financial accounts; balance sheets; stocks; flows; balance sheet Statistics; IMF's Statistics Department; balance sheet statistics; business accounting data; BelStat staff; accounting data; Financial statements; Fiscal accounting and reporting; Capital account
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Lithuania highlights the recent spike in global energy and food prices and persistent supply bottlenecks have compounded inflationary pressures, disproportionately hurting the poor. The authorities’ response to the energy crisis aims to limit economic disruptions, provide targeted support to the vulnerable, and allow for market price signals. Higher revenues from inflation allow the budget to accommodate pressures for higher social and defense spending in the short-term, but difficult tradeoffs await down the road. The banking system has ample capital and liquidity buffers to withstand a weakening economic environment or even greater shocks. Further efforts are needed to mitigate money laundering risks in the financial sector, particularly from the dynamic and growing fintech sector. A comprehensive carbon tax will be necessary to achieve the authorities’ emission reduction objectives for 2030. Structural reforms are necessary to ensure continued income convergence. The authorities need to address structural impediments by accelerating reforms in education and healthcare, and by closing gaps in the transportation infrastructure, and reducing information asymmetries that limit access to financing for small and medium enterprises.
Keywords:
potential GDP; wage-price spiral; price inflation; inflation development; foreign currency; Inflation; Energy prices; Loans; Wages; Real estate prices; Global; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United States: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United States
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that the United States (U.S.) has recovered quickly from the pandemic shock. The US economy has staged a strong recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) shock. The positive effects of unprecedented policy stimulus, combined with the advantages of a highly flexible economy, have been clear. Just over two years after the COVID-19 shock, the unemployment rate and other measures of labor force underutilization have returned to end-2019 levels and output is close to its pre-pandemic trend. The Federal Open Market Committee’s decision at its June meeting—to raise rates by 75 basis points and provide forward guidance around a path for the federal funds rate that peaks at close to 4 percent—strikes the right balance. This policy path should serve to create the up-front tightening of financial conditions that will be necessary to quickly bring inflation back to target. More determined action is needed to achieve the administration’s climate goals and to facilitate a smooth, speedy transition to a low carbon economy.
Keywords:
headline PCE inflation; data revision; IMF staff estimate; core PCE inflation; consumption expenditure; liability positions vis-à-vis nonresident; Inflation; Wages; Financial statements; Labor force participation; Labor markets; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Moldova: Ad Hoc Review Under the Extended Credit Facility; Request for Augmentation and Rephasing of Access, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Completion of the Inflation Consultation Under the Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Moldova
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
The economy rebounded strongly from the pandemic recession last year while prudent macroeconomic management maintained robust buffers. But the war in Ukraine and the international sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus have resulted in significant spillovers to Moldova, with implications yet to fully play out. At the outbreak of hostilities, FX market pressures triggered significant foreign currency interventions and bank deposit withdrawals, while dollarization has intensified. Moldova has received the highest per capita inflow of Ukrainian refugees (17 percent of the total population), of which about 100,000 refugees (4 percent of the total population) remain in Moldova. Driven by rising food and energy prices, inflation accelerated further above the target band.
Keywords:
authorities in Moldova; inflation consultation; General government budget; authorities' effort; balance-of-payment financing requirement; reform commitment; Energy prices; Inflation; Debt sustainability analysis; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reported Social Unrest Index: March 2022 Update
Mr. Philip Barrett
This paper updates the Reported Social Unrest Index of Barrett et al (2020), reviewing recent developments in social unrest worldwide since the start of the COVID-19 Pandemic. It shows that unrest was elevated during late 2019, coincident with widespread protests in Latin America. Unrest then fell markedly during the early stages of the pandemic as voluntary and involuntary social distancing struck. Social unrest has since returned but generally remains below levels seen in 2019.
Keywords:
Social unrest; Media coverage; et al; unrest vulnerability; machine learning technique; RSUI-identified events; copyright page; COVID-19; Caribbean; Global
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Europe
Regional Economic Outlook, October 2021, Europe
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.

Abstract

Europe Regional Economic Outlook, The European Recovery: Policy Recalibration and Sectoral Reallocation, October 2021

Keywords:
country fundamentals; IMF staff calculation; inflation expectation; growth projection; European economy; COVID-19; Purchasing power parity; Inflation; Employment; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Belarus: Technical Assistance Report-Asset Classification and Nonperforming Loan Regulation
International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
The NBRB revised in 2018 its regulation on asset classification and provisioning (the Regulation). One of the main changes was the introduction of a new definition for NPLs based on the current framework of risk groups (RGs). This definition substitutes the previous term “problem assets.” One of the intentions of the replacement is to promote international comparability by using it as a financial soundness indicator (FSI). The reported levels of this new NPLs indicator are, however, relatively low and, more important, much lower than the previous indicator, based on problem assets. The new NPL indicator levels are relatively stable, around 4 percent. The previous indicator was also stable, but the levels were more than three times higher, about 13 percent.
Keywords:
BCBS guideline; IMF Monetary; asset CLASSIFICATION; NONPERFORMING loan regulation; forbearance Classification; E. upgrading NPL; Nonperforming loans; Collateral; Credit risk; Global