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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Unpacking Impact of COVID-19 on Vietnamese Firms: Evidence from a Novel Survey
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
,
Ms. Yuanyan S Zhang
,
Thuy Dinh Pham
,
Nga Huong Phi
,
Duong Thuy Nguyen
, and
Tuan Danh Duong
Using a unique representative panel survey of Vietnamese enterprises in 2020, we find that the pandemic and associated government support package had a heterogenous impact across firms. The government support package, particularly tax cuts and deferrals, helped alleviate short term stress, but tight ineligibility criteria and cumbersome procedures impacted take-up. Econometric analysis suggests that the likelihood of accessing support was associated with firm size, with larger firms more likely to receive support compared to smaller firms, even after controlling for sector, firm ownership and financial health. Credit support was effective in alleviating liquidity constraints and allaying firm pessimism only for large firms. Interestingly, firms experiencing sales losses and those with lower pre-crisis productivity were more likely to resort to digitalization, suggesting that the pandemic could help narrow productivity gaps.
Keywords:
COVID-19; policy support; firms’ coping strategies; digitalization; coping strategy; government support package; credit support; firm pessimism; self-coping strategy; Credit; Labor costs; Productivity; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Productivity and Tax Evasion
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Mr. Mark Gradstein
,
Fedor Miryugin
, and
Florian Misch
The extent of tax compliance has important implications for revenue yield, efficiency and the fairness of any tax system. Tax evasion undermines revenue collection, distorts competition, and undermines a country’s development prospects. In this paper, we investigate whether higher productivity causally leads to lower tax evasion. We first present stylized facts consistent with this view and develop a model that illustrates one potential transmission channel. Second, we test the model predictions at the firm level using the self-reported share of declared income as proxy for tax evasion for a large sample of emerging and developing economies. Our results suggests that productivity improvements by firms can lead to lower tax evasion.
Keywords:
WP; firm; firm level; tax evasion propensity; productivity indicator; productivity result; tax-evading firm; firm productivity; Productivity; Tax evasion; Labor productivity; Tax return filing compliance; Tax administration core functions; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; East Africa; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rethinking Development Policy: Deindustrialization, Servicification and Structural Transformation
Manoj Atolia
,
Mr. Prakash Loungani
,
Milton Marquis
, and
Mr. Chris Papageorgiou
This paper takes a fresh look at the current theories of structural transformation and the role of private and public fundamentals in the process. It summarizes some representative past and current experiences of various countries vis-a-vis structural transformation with a focus on the roles of manufacturing, policy, and the international environment in shaping the trajectory of structural transformation. The salient aspects of the current debate on premature deindustrialization and its relation to a middle-income trap are described as they relate to the path of structural transformation. Conclusions are drawn regarding prospective future paths for structural transformation and development policies.
Keywords:
Development policies; structural transformation; premature deindustrialization; middle-income trap; push factors; growth diagnostics; high-productivity IT service; export structure; net importer; open economy; labor-saving technology; high-productivity service; middle-income economy; productivity economy; Manufacturing; Income; Productivity; Employment; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Vietnam: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper seeks to assess how this transformation has affected its growth potential. Employing a range of methodologies, the analysis concludes that Vietnam’s medium-term growth potential has increased from 6.2 percent estimated in 2014 to 6.5 percent. Acceleration of reforms that have generated productivity gains in the last decade, including the implementation of agreed free trade agreements, could further boost growth potential. The four methodologies provide a range of estimates for Vietnam’s potential output. On balance, we assess the potential growth estimate in Vietnam to be at 6.5 percent in 2017, higher than previous staff estimates of 6.2. The output gap is estimated at 0.4 percent in 2017. This analysis will be extended further in a forthcoming paper. The production function estimates can be further improved by explicitly incorporating the effect of structural transformation due to labor reallocation into the model, and by better accounting for the impact of the quality of human capital accumulation by taking the quality of education into account. Improvements in data quality, for example, on real estate prices, quarterly gross domestic product, unemployment rate and labor force in the informal sector, and capacity utilization, could further enhance the analysis.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Vietnam; potential GDP; debt rule; IMF staff estimate; house price misalignment; credit-to-GDP ratio; debt anchor; Debt limits; Total factor productivity; Potential output; Credit gaps; Global
Cover Departmental Papers
Structural Transformation in Employment and Productivity: What Can Africa Hope For?
Ms. Louise Fox
,
Mr. Alun H. Thomas
, and
Cleary Haines
This paper provides the most complete analysis of the structural transformation among low- and low-middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa to date.
Keywords:
DPPP; DP; Sub-Saharan Africa; share; employment share; wage employment; employment transformation; employment structure; type category; employment transition; Employment; Labor force; Productivity; Agricultural sector; Labor productivity; East Asia; Africa; South Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo : questions générales
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Ce document de la série des questions générales se penche sur l'évaluation de l'activité économique du Togo en l'absence de séries trimestrielles du PIB. Le Togo recueille environ 40 indicateurs macroéconomiques mensuels qui couvrent un grand nombre de secteurs de l'économie. La sélection de variables à inclure dans l'indice d'activité économique est faite en trouvant la meilleure combinaison. Les indicateurs sont agrégés dans un indice à l’aide d'une méthodologie utilisée par le Conference Board des États-Unis. Ceci permet d'établir un indice d'activité économique qui reproduit bien l'évolution des taux de croissance du PIB réel au Togo. L’indice sélectionné réduit au minimum les écarts entre le taux de croissance de l'indicateur et celui du PIB réel effectif sur la période 2002–13.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; food inflation; Togo; GDP
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Macro-Model Approach to Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting for Vietnam
Allan Dizioli
and
Jochen M. Schmittmann
The paper develops a small New-Keynesian FPAS model for Vietnam. The model closely matches actual data from 2000-2014. We derive an optimal monetary policy rule that minimizes variability of output, inflation, and the exchange rate. Compared to the baseline model, the optimal rule places a larger weight on output stabilization as the intermediate target to achieve inflation stability, while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility. We analyze the dynamics of key macro variables under various shocks including external and domestic demand shocks and a lift-off of U.S. interest rates. We find that the optimal monetary policy rule delivers greater macroeconomic stability for Vietnam under the shock scenarios.
Keywords:
WP; demand shock; nominal interest rate; Inflation Targeting; Monetary Policy; Bayesian Estimation; monetary policy rule; inflation stability; nominal exchange rate; food inflation Phillips Curve; fuel inflation; Inflation; Output gap; Exchange rates; Real interest rates; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Togo: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
This Selected Issues paper discusses the assessment of economic activity in Togo in absence of quarterly GDP series. Togo collects about 40 macroeconomic indicators monthly that span a wide range of sectors of the economy. The selection of the variables for the economic activity index is conducted by finding the combination of variables. The indicators are aggregated into an index using a methodology used by the Conference Board. Then an economic activity index is constructed that effectively replicates the historical growth rates of real GDP in Togo. The selected index minimizes the deviations between the growth rates of the indicator and actual real GDP growth over 2002–13.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; food inflation; Togo; GDP; GDP series; high-frequency Economic Activity Index; inflation dynamics; series correspond; Public investment spending; Inflation; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Structural transformation; Food prices; West Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Transforming Non-Renewable Resource Economies (NREs)
Bill Battaile
and
Mr. Saurabh Mishra
This paper provides an empirical benchmarking of growth, productivity and export patterns for developing NREs against other low and middle income developing countries, to inform policy discussions and future analytical work. There is stark heterogeneity in the association of resource sector and overall growth outcomes, by commodity and degree of dependence. Over the long term, inter-sectoral growth dynamics have been more muted for NREs than other developing countries, especially at lower incomes. Despite productivity convergence in mining, as expected, productivity growth in manufacturing and services was generally lower in NREs. Exceptions are few, in East Asia and the CIS area which experienced broad-based productivity growth. NRE product exports are more concentrated and relatively less complex, though we find increasingly diversified service export baskets. Technological progress and specialization in trade in services may offer diversification options for the future.
Keywords:
WP; NREs Weathered Post; export; service sector; resource curse; diversification; manufacturing; services; comparative advantage; productivity growth; middle income; export basket; commodity export data; resource base export; product export; emerging market NREs; copper export value; NRE productivity improvement; service import; Merchandise export; world service export; Personal income; Exports; Service exports; Productivity; Labor productivity; Asia and Pacific; East Asia; Caribbean; Central Asia; Global
Cover Policy Papers
Sustaining Long-Run Growth and Macroeconomic Stability in Low Income Countries - The Role of Structural Transformation and Diversification - Background Notes
International Monetary Fund
NULL
Keywords:
PP; private sector; country authorities; low income; natural resources; output diversification; export diversification; economic structure; exchange rate; export Diversification; export quality; terms of trade; natural resource; economic growth; foreign direct investment; Exports; Export diversification; Agricultural sector; Manufacturing; Productivity; Africa; East Asia; Asia and Pacific; Sub-Saharan Africa; Global