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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Dalia Kadissi
,
Giulio Lisi
, and
Nasir H Rao
In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks.
Keywords:
Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy; CCA inflation dynamics; inflation driver; Phillips Curve estimation; inflation development; inflation outcome; Food prices; Output gap; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This is the first issue of IMF Staff Papers published under a special partnership between the IMF and Palgrave Macmillan. Very little will change with regard to the journal's visual appearance, though significant service quality enhancements (e.g., an on-line interactive edition) will rollout before the end of 2007. For more information and regular updates, please access http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/index.html.
Keywords:
SP; forecast error; distance coefficient; commodity price shock; core inflation measure; adjustment effort; Commodity price shocks; Inflation; Employment; Commodity price fluctuations; Employment rate; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Rapid Growth in Transition Economies: Growth-Accounting Approach
Mr. Garbis Iradian
This paper uses the growth-accounting approach to determine the sources of growth in transition economies. The central conclusion is that the estimated total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the former Soviet Union republics were significantly higher than other fast growing economies. A key question for prospective growth is whether the TFP gains achieved thus far have already eliminated most of the inefficiencies of central planning-and will therefore soon fade away. Underutilized labor combined with the recent trend of faster capital accumulation may play a more important role in the medium-term growth.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; technical efficiency; CIS country; physical capital