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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Sustaining and Accelerating Pro-Poor Growth in Africa
Mr. Kevin J Carey
,
Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
, and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo

Abstract

Growth in sub-Saharan Africa has recently shown signs of improvement, but is still short of levels needed to attain the Millennium Development Goals. Economists have placed increasing emphasis on understanding the policies that promote sustained jumps in medium-term growth, and the paper applies this approach to African countries. The evidence presented finds an important growth-supporting role for particular kinds of institutions and policies, but also highlights aspects of growth that are still not well understood. The paper includes policy guidance for ensuring that the poor benefit from growth.

Keywords:
ISI; SI; country; policy; growth rate; Dem. rep.; sub-Saharan Africa data; conflict country; World Bank's country policy; sub-Saharan Africa country; growth opportunity; country case studies; Income inequality; Poverty reduction; Total factor productivity; Inclusive growth; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Global; growth in sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sources of Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
Mr. Brou E Aka
,
Mr. Bernardin Akitoby
,
Mr. Amor Tahari
, and
Mr. Dhaneshwar Ghura
Analysis of 1960-2002 data shows that average real GDP growth in sub-Saharan Africa was low and decelerated continuously before starting to recover in the second part of the 1990s. Growth was driven primarily by factor accumulation with little role for total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The recent pickup in economic growth was accompanied by an increase in TFP growth, namely in the group of countries whose IMF-supported programs were judged to be on track. Average annual growth in the region, at 3½ percent during 1997-2002, is less than half of the estimated growth needed to halve the fraction of population living below $1 per day between 1990 and 2015, one of the Millennium Development Goals.
Keywords:
WP; country; Sub-Saharan Africa; real GDP; Growth Accounting; Growth Prospects; CFA franc; tertiary sector; investment-GDP ratio; TFP decline; growth in the region; Total factor productivity; Africa; East Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?
Mr. Luca A Ricci
and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).
Keywords:
WP; debt variable; stock ratio; debt impact; debt level; Laffer curve; physical capital; threshold d; Growth; external debt; growth accounting; debt-overhang effect; debt threshold; debt coefficient; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Human capital; Capital accumulation; Production growth; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sources of Economic Growth: An Extensive Growth Accounting Exercise
Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
A growth accounting exercise is conducted for 88 countries for 1960-94 to examine the source of cross-country differences in total factor productivity (TFP) levels. Two differences distinguish this analysis from that of the related literature. First, the critical technology parameter—the share of physical capital in real output—is econometrically estimated and the usual assumption of identical technology across regions is relaxed. Second, while the few studies on the determinants of cross-country differences in TFP have focused on growth rates of real output this analysis is on levels. Recent theoretical as well as empirical arguments point to the level of TFP as the more relevant variable to explain.
Keywords:
WP; dummy variable; correlation coefficient; TFP level; time series; growth accounting; TFP; production function; Cobb-Douglas production function; TFP series; TFP performance; TFP ranking; increase TFP; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Production growth; East Asia; Africa; South Asia; Middle East; East Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can the Neoclassical Model Explain the Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment Across Developing Countries?
Mr. Harm Zebregs
Since the beginning of the 1990s, foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased dramatically. The distribution of FDI flows across these countries, however, is highly uneven; only a small number attract comparatively large amounts of foreign capital. This paper investigates whether the pattern of FDI flows can be explained by the standard neoclassical model or by modified versions of this model that allow for differences in production technologies across countries. The results suggest that the standard neoclassical approach is not particularly useful if we want to understand FDI flows to developing countries.
Keywords:
WP; FDI flow; FDI-GNP ratio; capital; GNP; Foreign Investment; Neoclassical Theory; flows to developing countries; FDI data; share parameter; Foreign direct investment; Capital flows; Capital productivity; East Asia