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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 43 items for :

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Cover IMF Working Papers
G3MOD: A Multi-Country Global Forecasting Model
Iaroslav Miller
,
Daniel Baksa
,
Philippe D Karam
, and
Tugrul Vehbi
This paper develops G3MOD, a semi-structural gap-trend model designed for frequent external sector forecasts crucial in macroeconomic forecasting. Focused on the G3 economies (US, Euro Area, and China) and the rest of the world, G3MOD leverages insights from central banks’ policy models, to consistently translate external forecasts such as the IMF’s World Economic Outlook into a Quarterly Projection Model format. The model offers flexible simulations and policy assessments and is structured around trade and financial linkages. G3MOD supports model-based forecasts and risk evaluations, helping central banks integrate external forecasts and scenarios into their own forecasts, thus generating timely macroeconomic projections. Its calibration ensures alignment with historical data, economic coherence, and robust predictive capability, and it has been validated against major global projection models. The complete set of codes, calibrated parameter values, and supporting programs are posted with this working paper.
Keywords:
Quarterly Projection Model; Forecasting and Policy Analysis; Monetary Policy; Macroeconomic Modeling; forecasting accuracy; macroeconomic forecasting; risk evaluation; demand shock; Inflation; Output gap; Commodity prices; Nominal effective exchange rate; Real exchange rates; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Here Comes the Change: The Role of Global and Domestic Factors in Post-Pandemic Inflation in Europe
Mahir Binici
,
Samuele Centorrino
,
Mr. Serhan Cevik
, and
Gyowon Gwon
Global inflation has surged to 7.5 percent in August 2022, from an average of 2.1 percent in the decade preceding the COVID-19 pandemic, threatening to become an entrenched phenomenon. This paper disentangles the confluence of contributing factors to the post-pandemic rise in consumer price inflation, using monthly data and a battery of econometric methodologies covering a panel of 30 European countries over the period 2002-2022. We find that while global factors continue to shape inflation dynamics throughout Europe, country-specific factors, including monetary and fiscal policy responses to the crisis, have also gained greater prominence in determining consumer price inflation during the pandemic period. Coupled with increasing persistence in inflation, these structural shifts call for significant and an extended period of monetary tightening and fiscal realignment.
Keywords:
Inflation; output gap; globalization; Phillips curve; dynamic factor model; fixed effect estimator; local projection method; inflation dynamics; consumer price inflation; fiscal policy response; inflation expectation; inflation process; commodity price; core CPI; Commodity prices; COVID-19; Energy prices; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Inflation-at-Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
Mr. Maximilien Queyranne
,
Romain Lafarguette
, and
Kubi Johnson
This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. The paper uncovers interesting features of inflation dynamics in the region, including the role of backward versus forward-looking drivers, non-linearities, and heterogeneous and delayed exchange rate pass-through. The results have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy and central bank communication in the Middle East and Central Asia and emerging markets in general.
Keywords:
Emerging markets; inflation; inflation expectations; Phillips Curve; monetary policy; central bank communication; Middle East; North Africa; Central Asia; inflation expectation; inflation risk; self-reinforcing inflation dynamics; baseline inflation forecast; fan chart; Commodity prices; Output gap; Exchange rates; Consumer price indexes; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Dissecting Economic Growth in Uruguay
Ms. Natasha X Che
Uruguay experienced one of its biggest economic booms in history during 2004-2014. Since then, growth has come down significantly. The paper investigates the various causes of the boom and discusses the sustainability of these causes. It then compares Uruguay against high-growth countries that were once at a similar income level, across a broad set of structural indicators, to identify priority reform areas that could improve long-term growth prospect.
Keywords:
economic growth; Uruguay; commodity price boom; sustainable growth; economy of Uruguay; WP; convergence record; income convergence; soybean export; terms of trade; Uruguay economy
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Paraguay: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates the reasons for the growth pickup in Paraguay and explores the potential for sustainable future growth. It shows that the growth acceleration over the past 15 years is the combined result of a few factors: a bounce back from the crisis in the late 1990s and the subpar growth of the two decades prior; a benevolent external environment, the commodity price boom in particular; and the improved macroeconomic stability. Also in terms of its composition, growth in the past has largely been extensive, mostly coming from capital deepening and increasing labor inputs, rather than productivity increase, though total factor productivity growth has played a bigger role in the most recent years. Despite strong growth in recent years, like most of the Latin America, seen over a longer period, Paraguay has not attained significant economic convergence with advanced economies. Empirical data shows a strong linkage between the GDP per capita of a country and its score in a composite structural indicator such as the World Competitiveness Index, which Paraguay ranked poorly on. Identifying and correcting Paraguay’s structural deficiencies that may be hampering productivity growth and capital accumulation will be crucial for sustainable growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Paraguay; IMF staff calculation; GDP; credit growth; dollar-denominated credit; commodity price boom; IMF staff estimate; Credit; Credit booms; Exports; Agricultural prices; Commodity prices; Global; Western Europe; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Growth in Colombia
Mr. Sergi Lanau
,
Mr. Jorge Roldos
, and
Jose Daniel Rodríguez-Delgado
This paper uses a multivariate filter and a production function to project potential growth in Colombia, modeling in detail the impact of low oil prices on investment. The framework also captures the impact of current and planned policies on potential growth, including the peace agreement with the FARC, the tax reform, and 4G infrastructure projects. The analysis suggests the growth acceleration of the 2000s is unlikely to repeat itself in a world of lower oil prices. Potential growth is likely to moderate to a range of 2.8 to 4.1 percent. The 4G infrastructure projects and the tax reform will increase investment, partly offsetting the sharp decline in oil investment. Improvements in productivity are essential to lift potential growth, as the large increases in the labor force observed in the last 15 years are unlikely to continue.
Keywords:
WP; price; investment; oil price; Potential output; Colombia; commodity export price; investment rate; potential GDP; Brent oil price; government investment plan; structural oil price; structural price; commodity exporter; oil prices stabilization; productivity effect; investment forecast; investment plan; Oil prices; Infrastructure; Productivity; Commodity prices; Global
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2016
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, June 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; Africa Rising story; banknote paper; paper bill; commodity exporter
Cover Finance & Development
Finances & Développement, juin 2016
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finances & Développement, juin 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; Africa Rising story; banknote paper; paper bill; commodity exporter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2016
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, June 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; Africa Rising story; banknote paper; paper bill; commodity exporter
Cover Finance & Development
Finance and Development, June 2016
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
Finance and Development, June 2016
Keywords:
FD; F&D; economy; Africa Rising story; banknote paper; paper bill; commodity exporter