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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 4 of 4 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Papua New Guinea x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Commodity Price Volatility and the Sources of Growth
International Monetary Fund
This paper studies the impact of the level and volatility of the commodity terms of trade on economic growth, as well as on the three main growth channels: total factor productivity, physical capital accumulation, and human capital acquisition. We use the standard system GMM approach as well as a cross-sectionally augmented version of the pooled mean group (CPMG) methodology of Pesaran et al. (1999) for estimation. The latter takes account of cross-country heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence, while the former controls for biases associated with simultaneity and unobserved country-specific effects. Using both annual data for 1970-2007 and five-year non-overlapping observations, we find that while commodity terms of trade growth enhances real output per capita, volatility exerts a negative impact on economic growth operating mainly through lower accumulation of physical capital. Our results indicate that the negative growth effects of commodity terms of trade volatility offset the positive impact of commodity booms; and export diversification of primary commodity abundant countries contribute to faster growth. Therefore, we argue that volatility, rather than abundance per se, drives the "resource curse" paradox.
Keywords:
WP; Growth; resource curse; commodity prices; volatility; commodity terms of trade growth; growth rate; commodity terms of trade volatility; commodity exporter; terms of trade volatility; commodity terms of trade index; CTOT variable; commodity terms of trade growth series; commodity price booms; Commodity price fluctuations; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Productivity in Papua New Guinea
Mr. Ebrima A Faal
This paper has examined Papua New Guinea's historical economic growth patterns through a simple growth accounting framework. The analysis shows that swings in growth are mostly accounted for by a significant slowdown in capital input and lower Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth. It also suggests that raising real GDP growth will require increases in both investment levels and productivity. With a ratio of investment to GDP of 13 percent during the last decade, significantly higher productivity growth and investment will be needed to sustain GDP growth rates at 5 percent or higher. The historical performance also indicates that, in the absence of structural reforms and strong institutions, higher rates of productivity growth will be hard to achieve.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; GDP
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Papua new Guinea: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Papua New Guinea reports that although economic cycles have generally paralleled the many mineral sector booms and busts, the downward trend in growth rates may reflect other factors. Papua New Guinea’s economy is dominated by a large labor-intensive agricultural sector and a capital-intensive oil and minerals sector. The formal sector consists of enclave extractive industries, cash crop production, and a small, import-substituting manufacturing sector. The importance of the agriculture sector is about the same as at independence, reflecting structural impediments that have deterred more rapid growth.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; mineral revenue; government; TFP growth; revenue windfall; TFP variation; mineral balance; investment policy reform; revenue performance; Total factor productivity; Non-renewable resources; Fiscal stance; Global; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region
Exchange Rate Movements and Their Impact on Trade and Investment in the APEC Region
Takatoshi Ito
,
Mr. Tamim Bayoumi
,
Mr. Peter Isard
, and
Mr. Steven A. Symansky

Abstract

The 18 members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (APEC) encompass not only a wide geographic area but also broad differences in stages of economic development, including among them some of the fastest- growing economies in the world. Such rapid growth has been ficilitated by high levels of investment and trade, international linkages, and, in most APEC economies, macroeconomic policies that have sustained growth while not sparking excessive inflation. This study offers insights about how medium and long-term changes in real exchange rates have affected international (and intra-APEC) trade and investment in the region.

Keywords:
OP; APEC; exchange rate; FDI inflow; APEC economy; APEC region; FDI flow; APEC member; FDI outflow; tradable goods; Real exchange rates; Exchange rates; Foreign direct investment; Exports; Exchange rate adjustments; East Asia; Asia and Pacific