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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Panama: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper presents the main features and weaknesses of the current Panamanian tax system and provides an international comparison of its performance. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust. Panama’s macroeconomic performance has been notably robust, but Panama’s tax collection has been historically low. A tax system without adequate revenues led to chronic fiscal deficits and a lack of resources to invest in human capital (education and health) and promote social inclusion policies. In addition, the tax system is notably regressive, and several rules are very inefficient and distortive contradicting the overall policy objective of the country to attract investment. Taxation of the business sector is very complex. On the other hand, the system is very generous regarding benefits. Overall, the desirable reform direction is clear: A reduction in tax incentives, following their analysis, as well as stronger anti-abuse provisions, and revenues from an international minimum tax can finance reductions in the inefficient parts of the tax system, such as the multiple business taxes and the strict loss carry forward.
Keywords:
VAT indicator; directorate General; C. consumption tax; tax comparison; revenue performance; International reserves; Total factor productivity; Tax incentives; Corporate income tax; Caribbean; Central America; South America; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Research Bulletin
IMF Research Perspectives: Spring/Summer 2018
IMF Research Perspective (formerly published as IMF Research Bulletin) is a new, redesigned online newsletter covering updates on IMF research. In the inaugural issue of the newsletter, Hites Ahir interviews Valeria Cerra; and they discuss the economic environment 10 years after the global financial crisis. Research Summaries cover the rise of populism; economic reform; labor and technology; big data; and the relationship between happiness and productivity. Sweta C. Saxena was the guest editor for this inaugural issue.
Keywords:
IRB; big data wave; populism; product market reform; reform agenda; rise of populism; big data innovation; Big data; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Personal income; Output gap; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Output Growth Estimates for Central America and the Dominican Republic
Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos
,
Fan Zhang
, and
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
This paper presents estimates of potential output for all Central American economies. Our findings are that potential output growth has declined in recent years in most economies of Central America. Lower capital accumulation and TFP growth are accounting for most of this decline. Apart from Costa Rica, there are no indications of significant economic slack in 2015 in Central America. Looking forward, potential growth in most Central American economies is expected to continue at an average of 4 percent in the medium-term due to structural constraints to capital and employment growth, and low TFP growth. Increasing potential growth, thus, should be a policy priority and structural reforms must be directed at improving business conditions, product and labor markets, and enhancing the capacity for innovation.
Keywords:
WP; output gap; capital stock; potential output; productivity; macroeconomic modeling; production function; Central America; TFP performance; TFP series; employment growth; Central American economy; Total factor productivity; Employment; Production growth; Labor force participation; Western Hemisphere
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Guatemala: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates potential output growth and the output gap for Guatemala. Potential output growth averaged 4.4 percent just before the global financial crisis but has since declined to 3.75 percent owing to lower capital accumulation and total factor productivity (TFP) growth. It is estimated at 3.8 percent in 2016, and the output gap has virtually closed. Potential growth is expected to reach 4 percent in the medium term owing to the expected improvements in TFP growth. Policies should also prioritize mobilizing domestic savings to invest and build a higher capital stock.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; GDP; yield; Guatemala; food inflation; inflation headline inflation; inflation expectation; macroeconomic fundamentals; commodity price inflation; nominal interest rate; Financial inclusion; Inflation; Financial sector development; Credit; Global; Central America; Asia and Pacific; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Selected Issues and Analytical Notes
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This paper looks at the following important issues pertaining to the economy of Costa Rica: micro-financial linkages, financial sector vulnerabilities, monetary policy stance, financial deepening in Costa Rica, financial inclusion in Costa Rica, recent fiscal developments and medium-term sustainability, and female labor force participation in Costa Rica. This paper discusses linkages between the Costa Rican real economy and financial sector. Although increasingly diversified, the Costa Rican financial system is centered on banking intermediation. The banking system is highly segmented and heavily dollarized. To assess the adequacy of the current monetary policy stance, this paper estimates the neutral monetary policy interest rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; LFP rate; market development; macroeconomic fundamentals; monetary policy rate; debtor position vis-à-vis bank; net FX debt position; Financial inclusion; Financial sector development; Credit; Women; Fiscal consolidation; Global; Central America; Europe; Caribbean
Cover IMF Working Papers
Potential Output and Output Gap in Central America, Panama and Dominican Republic
Mr. Christian A Johnson
Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustaintability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4 percent while output gap volatility is about 1.9 percent; ii) The highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eigth years.
Keywords:
WP; Potential growth; output gap; growth decomposition; switching; state-space model; output gap volatility; output gap-production function approach; output gap variability; standard deviation; CAPDR country; potential output gap; Potential output; Production growth; Sustainable growth; Total factor productivity; Central America
Cover IMF Working Papers
Is the Growth Momentum in Latin America Sustainable?
Mr. Sebastian Sosa
,
Ms. Evridiki Tsounta
, and
Miss Marie S Kim
A favorable external environment coupled with prudent policies fostered output growth in most of Latin America during the last decade. But, what were the drivers of this strong growth performance from the supply side and will this momentum be sustainable in the years ahead? We address these questions by identifying the proximate causes of the recent high GDP growth and estimating potential growth rates for the period ahead for a large group of Latin American countries based on standard (Solow-style) growth accounting methodologies. We find that factor accumulation (especially labor), rather than growth in total factor productivity (TFP), remains the main driver of GDP growth. Moving forward, given the expected moderation of capital accumulation and some natural constraints on labor, the strong growth momentum is unlikely to be sustainable unless TFP performance improves significantly.
Keywords:
WP; TFP growth; TFP performance; economic growth; potential growth; total factor productivity; Latin America; growth differential; TFP series; factors of production; TFP estimate; Production growth; Labor force participation; Human capital; Caribbean; Central America; Asia and Pacific; South America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Costa Rica: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
This article is a synopsis on Costa Rica’s international spillovers, potential estimates, fiscal challenges, and banking systems. Spillovers are originated by cross-country trade and financial linkages, and also by the impact of global fiscal consolidation. The banking sector has about one-third foreign bank assets, and these foreign investments are controlled by the United States. So a shock in the United States or China will have adverse effects on Costa Rica. To have a medium- and long-term sustainability, Costa Rica needs to have some fiscal adjustments.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Basel; Gdp; bond yield; bank; credit default swap; supervisory authority; exposure to country; public finances to change; capital requirement; sovereign credit rating; Costa Rica's banking sector; Five-year credit default swap; III capital requirement; public finances; Costa Rica trade; Costa Rica's trade; Basel III; Fiscal consolidation; Foreign banks; Output gap; Central America; Europe; Global
Cover América Central
América Central
Crecimiento económico e integración
Mr. Alfred Schipke
and
Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

¿Cómo consolidar los avances logrados con tanto esfuerzo, acrecentar la capacidad de resistencia a los shocks y alcanzar un mayor crecimiento económico a fin de reducir la pobreza? Estos son los desafíos que se le presentan en el camino a América Central en el proceso de recuperación de la estabilidad macroeconómica. Este estudio analiza las políticas de América Central en los sectores real, fiscal, monetario y financiero a nivel regional, comenzando por un análisis del crecimiento y de las implicaciones macroeconómicas de las remesas. Seguidamente se abordan la sostenibilidad de los sistemas de pensiones, el desarrollo del sistema financiero, las vulnerabilidades de la deuda soberana y las formas de apoyar el avance en la reducción de la inflación fortaleciendo la credibilidad de los bancos centrales.

Keywords:
OP; country; debt; government
Cover Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Economic Growth and Integration in Central America
Mr. Alfred Schipke
and
Mr. Dominique Desruelle

Abstract

How to entrench hard-won gains, increase resilience to shocks, and improve growth performance to reduce poverty? As Central America moves forward in regaining macroeconomic stability, these are the challenges. This study analyzes Central America’s real, fiscal, monetary, and financial sector policies at the regional level, starting with a review of growth performance and the macroeconomic implications of remittances. It then looks at the sustainability of pension systems, financial system development, sovereign debt vulnerabilities, and ways to sustain progress in reducing inflation by strengthening the credibility of central banks.

Keywords:
OP; country; debt; government; Central America-Panama; debt structure; Central America-Chile; Central America-Dominican Republic; retirement age; productivity-enhancing reform; foreign currency debt; productivity performance; Pension spending; Pensions; Aging; Inflation; Central America; South America; Western Hemisphere; Global