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International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that New Zealand’s economic activity has slowed following monetary policy tightening and a decline in investment. Growth is expected to remain slow at 1 percent y/y in 2024 before picking up in 2025, as the lagged impact of monetary policy tightening suppresses domestic demand. Improving external conditions should help narrow the trade deficit, especially through tourism. Budget 2024 should deliver a tight fiscal stance in the near term and provide a comprehensive consolidation strategy for the medium term. Monetary policy is appropriately tight and should remain restrictive to ensure a timely return of inflation to target. Structural reforms are needed to boost the housing supply, revive productivity growth, lower emissions, and address challenges from climate change. The ongoing housing affordability challenges cannot be solved without a significant increase in residential construction. Policy recommendations include reforming land use restrictions, addressing local infrastructure funding needs, and using land value and capital gains taxes to incentivize more efficient land use.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that Australia’s post-pandemic recovery remained strong. However, growth is weakening on the heels of tighter macroeconomic policies and financial conditions. While inflation has peaked, it remains persistently high. Economic activity is projected to further decelerate in the near term, as the tightening of monetary conditions continues to take hold. Short-term policies should focus on navigating the economy to a soft landing, by bringing inflation back to target, while maintaining financial stability. Policy coordination will be critical. Structural reforms must address declining productivity growth and challenges related to ageing and put the economy on the path for a green transition. Structural policies should be centered on promoting productivity growth. Continued investment in digital infrastructure, more direct government funding for research and development, and more open foreign direct investment regime coupled with labor market and tax reforms are among the key structural policies.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Strong health and economic policies allowed for quick economic recovery from initial COVID-19-related lockdowns in 2020. Renewed outbreaks and lockdowns have created setbacks since mid-2021, with disproportionate impacts on some regions, sectors, and workers. Accommodative macroeconomic policies have been instrumental in cushioning the economic impact.
Mr. Holger Floerkemeier
and
Mr. Nikola Spatafora
We discuss regional disparities in economic performance and living standards. We first set out some key facts, and provide a conceptual framework to help analyze whether such disparities are efficient, or instead reflect market and/or policy failures. We examine whether policy attempts to reduce regional disparities necessarily involve a trade-off between equity and efficiency. We then investigate whether policymakers should focus on boosting the economic performance of lagging regions—or, conversely, accept the presence of regional disparities, and instead assist households in lagging regions through transfer payments, investments in education, health, and other basic services, and by facilitating out-migration.
Yang Yang
This paper examines the impact of highway expansion on aggregate productivity growth and sectoral reallocation between cities in China. To do so, I construct a unique dataset of bilateral transportation costs between Chinese cities, digitized highway network maps, and firm-level census. I first derive and estimate a market access measure that summarizes all direct and indirect impact of trade costs on city productivity. I then construct an instrumental variable to examine the causal impact of highways on economic outcomes and the underlying channels. The results suggest that highways promoted aggregate productivity growth by facilitating firm entry, exit and reallocation. I also find evidence that the national highway system led to a sectoral reallocation between cities in China.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This paper examines the selected issues related to the economy of Denmark: divergence in house prices, house prices in Denmark's cities, macroprudential policies, and product market reform and firm productivity. Recent house price developments in Denmark have been characterized by a growing divergence between different parts of the country, with big cities experiencing much more rapid price increases than other parts. House price booms and busts in Denmark, like in many other countries, are a big-city phenomenon. Macroprudential policies can help contain risks for households, the financial system, and the broader economy, but they should be carefully calibrated to avoid an undue drag on growth.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This paper discusses prospects for potential growth, house prices, household debt, and financial stability risks, and tax policy reforms in New Zealand. Despite having world-class institutions and strong policy framework, income levels remain low relative to other Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. During 1980–2014, per capita income levels have remained about 20 percent below the OECD's average income. Longstanding structural issues need to be addressed to boost potential growth. House prices and household debt have increased rapidly in New Zealand over the past two decades. New Zealand's low national saving rate is a source of vulnerability and likely contributes to the relatively high interest rates needed to attract foreign capital.
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper analyzes the housing prices in Australia. Housing prices in Australia have increased strongly over the past two decades, including by comparison internationally. Thus housing prices are often argued to be overvalued. Many counter-arguments have been put forward for why such measures are flawed. This paper argues that housing prices are moderately stronger than consistent with current economic fundamentals, but less than a comparison to historical or international averages would suggest. International comparisons of price-to-income ratios suggest that Australia is broadly in line with comparator countries, although significant data comparability issues make inference difficult.
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines labor productivity in Israel. Israel’s GDP per capita is low relative to the United States despite high labor input, as labor productivity is low. Catch-up of labor productivity to the United States stopped in the 1980s and relative labor productivity has since declined. Low labor productivity is the result of a low capital-to-labor ratio—kept low by high employment growth—and low total factor productivity growth. The latter may reflect lack of competition and product market restrictions, which are among the highest in advanced economies. Boosting competition, lowering product-market restrictions, and improving the quality of education and infrastructure would help boost productivity.