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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 7 of 7 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Economic Development: General x
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Cover Policy Papers
Gulf Cooperation Council: Pursuing Visions Amid Geopolitical Turbulence: Economic Prospects and Policy Challenges for the GCC Countries
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
The Gulf Cooperation Council countries have successfully weathered recent turbulence in the Middle East, and their economic prospects remain favorable. Nonhydrocarbon activity has been strong amid reform implementation, although overall growth has decelerated due to cuts in oil production. The growth outlook is positive, as the envisaged easing of oil production cuts and natural gas expansion spur the recovery in the hydrocarbon sector, while the nonhydrocarbon economy continues to expand. External buffers remain comfortable despite current account balances having narrowed. Risks around the outlook are broadly balanced in the near term. More challenging medium-term risks, especially in the context of geoeconomic fragmentation and climate change, call for action on policy priorities to continue to strengthen the private sector and to diversify the economy.
Keywords:
economic diversification; financial stability; fiscal sustainability; GCC; productivity improvements; regional integration; GCC country; policy priority; B. GCC; GCC well; GCC public sector balance sheet; Labor markets; Fiscal rules; Total factor productivity; Global; Middle East; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
The Role of Productivity, Transportation Costs, and Barriers to Intersectoral Mobility in Structural Transformation
Cem Karayalcin
and
Mihaela Pintea
The process of economic development is characterized by substantial reallocations of resources across sectors. In this paper, we construct a multi-sector model in which there are barriers to the movement of labor from low-productivity traditional agriculture to modern sectors. With the barrier in place, we show that improvements in productivity in modern sectors (including agriculture) or reductions in transportation costs may lead to a rise in agricultural employment and through terms-oftrade effects may harm subsistence farmers if the traditional subsistence sector is larger than a critical level. This suggests that policy advice based on the earlier literature needs to be revised. Reducing barriers to mobility (through reductions in the cost of skill acquisition and institutional changes) and improving the productivity of subsistence farmers needs to precede policies designed to increase the productivity of modern sectors or decrease transportation costs.
Keywords:
WP; subsistence farming; terms of trade; Structural transformation; Subsistence agriculture; multi-sector models; Economic development; Transportation costs; transportation cost; agriculture sector; productivity improvement; modern agriculture; productivity difference; excess demand; improvement result; Agricultural sector; Productivity; Transportation; Manufacturing; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Working Papers
Hitchhiker’s Guide to Inflation in Libya
Mr. Serhan Cevik
and
Ms. Katerina Teksoz
This paper presents an empirical investigation of inflation dynamics in Libya over the period 1964–2010, using cointegration and error correction models. While inflation inertia is found to be a key determinant of consumer price inflation, the econometric results indicate that government spending, money supply growth, global inflation, and exchange rate pass-through play central roles in the inflation process. These findings are broadly consistent with the experience of other countries that are natural resource dependent. We also find evidence that the imposition and subsequent removal of international sanctions on Libya had a noteworthy impact on consumer price inflation. Collectively, our estimates indicate that the deviations from an equilibrium path initiate significant adjustments in inflation dynamics, and that closer coordination between monetary and fiscal policies would improve the balance between economic growth and price stability.
Keywords:
WP; consumer price inflation; inflation dynamics; Inflation; money supply; exchange rate pass-through; international sanctions; inflation inertia; inflation process; money supply growth; Consumer prices; Monetary base; Consumer price indexes; Output gap; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Determinants of Inflation in GCC
Ms. Magda E. Kandil
and
Mrs. Hanan Morsy
Inflationary pressures have heightened in the oil-rich Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) since 2003. This paper studies determinants of inflation in GCC, using an empirical model that includes domestic and external factors. Inflation in major trading partners appears to be the most relevant foreign factor. In addition, oil revenues have reinforced inflationary pressures through growth of credit and aggregate spending. In the short-run, binding capacity constraints also explain higher inflation given increased government spending. Nonetheless, by targeting supply-side bottlenecks, the increase in government spending is easing capacity constraints and will ultimately help to moderate price inflation.
Keywords:
WP; price inflation; price; exchange rate; Inflation; external shocks; domestic policies; exchange rate pass-through; GCC country; exchange rate depreciation; inflation in trading partners; excess demand; determinants of inflation; inflation in GCC; Exchange rate adjustments; Exchange rates; Capacity utilization
Cover IMF Working Papers
What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?
Mr. Luca A Ricci
and
Ms. Catherine A Pattillo
This paper investigates the channels through which debt affects growth, specifically whether debt affects growth through factor accumulation or total factor productivity growth. It also tests for the presence of nonlinearities in the effects of debt on the different sources of growth. We use a large panel dataset of 61 developing countries over the period 1969-98. Results indicate that the negative impact of high debt on growth operates both through a strong negative effect on physical capital accumulation and on total factor productivity growth. On average, for high-debt countries, doubling debt will reduce output growth by about 1 percentage point and reduce both per capita physical capital and total factor productivity growth by somewhat less than that. In terms of the contributions to growth, approximately one-third of the effect of debt on growth occurs via physical capital accumulation and two-thirds via total factor productivity growth. The results are generally robust to the use of alternative estimators to control (to different extents) for biases associated with unobserved country-specific effects and the endogeneity of several regressors, particularly the debt variables. In particular, the results are shown to be compatible with a simultaneous significant effect of growth on debt ratios, as suggested by Easterly (2001).
Keywords:
WP; debt variable; stock ratio; debt impact; debt level; Laffer curve; physical capital; threshold d; Growth; external debt; growth accounting; debt-overhang effect; debt threshold; debt coefficient; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Human capital; Capital accumulation; Production growth; Global; Middle East; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Globalization and Growth in the Twentieth Century
Mr. N. F. R. Crafts
This paper reviews the experience of economic growth during the twentieth century with a view to highlighting implications for both growth economists and policy-makers. The unprecedented divergence in income levels between the OECD economies and many developing countries is documented but so too is a more optimistic picture of widespread progress in terms of the Human Development Index. Various aspects of the changes in economic structure are explored in terms of their implications for growth performance both in retrospect and prospect. The possibility that the growth process will lead to another globalization backlash reminiscent of the 1930s is analyzed.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; TFP growth; financial crisis; third world; Growth; convergence; globalization; diminishing returns; developing world; foreign policy; adverse selection; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Income; Public expenditure review; East Asia; Africa; Eastern Europe; Western Europe; South Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
International Trade and Productivity Growth: Exploring the Sectoral Effects for Developing Countries
Ehsan U. Choudhri
and
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
The paper estimates an empirical relation based on Krugman’s ‘technological gap’ model to explore the influence of the pattern of international trade and production on the overall productivity growth of a developing country. A key result is that increased import competition in medium-growth (but not in low- or high-growth) manufacturing sectors enhances overall productivity growth. The authors also find that a production-share weighted average of (technological leaders’) sectoral productivity growth rates has a significant effect on the rate of aggregate productivity growth.
Keywords:
WP; Productivity Growth; Trade Liberalization; Technological Gap; TFP growth rate; trade variable; trade effect; trade ratio; technology lag; s TFP growth; gap in a sector; growth performance; trade index; productivity gap; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Imports; Technology transfer; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; South Asia