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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
Assessing the Impact of Structural Reforms on Potential Output: The Case of Morocco
Hippolyte W. Balima
,
Olivier Bizimana
, and
Ananta Dua
This paper assesses Morocco’s potential output and the scope for structural reforms to reverse the downward trend in economic performance observed since the Global Financial Crisis. Using multivariate filtering (MVF) techniques, our analysis finds that the downward secular trend in potential growth was primarily driven by the decline in the contribution of labor inputs. We then combine production function and general equilibrium model approaches to provide estimates of the potential macroeconomic impact of Morocco’s structural reform agenda. The results suggest that the planned structural reforms could deliver sizable output gains in the medium to long term with reforms that would reduce the large gender gap in Morocco’s labor market yielding the greatest payoffs.
Keywords:
Economic growth; structural reforms; potential output; productivity; multivariate filter; dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models; fiscal policy; Morocco; production function approach; Morocco's agenda; reform multiplier; structural reform agenda; case of Morocco; Total factor productivity; Labor force participation; Production growth; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Simple Macrofiscal Model for Policy Analysis: An Application to Morocco
Daniel Baksa
,
Mr. Ales Bulir
, and
Mr. Roberto Cardarelli
The paper describes a semistructural macrofiscal approach to simulating and forecasting macroeconomic policies. The model focuses on only a few variables that are consistent with the New Keynesian framework. Thanks to its simplicity, it facilitates an initial and intuitive understanding of monetary and fiscal policy transmission channels, and their main impact on economic activity. The model is adapted to Morocco and we demonstrate its application with an illustrative scenario of policy responses to a slower-than-expected recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, under different monetary policy and exchange rate regimes.
Keywords:
Fiscal Policy; Morocco; Fiscal Multiplier; fiscal policy transmission channels; Policy reaction function; B. aggregate supply; peg regime; fiscal policy transmission mechanisms; Exchange rate arrangements; Real exchange rates; Output gap; Inflation targeting; Maghreb; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda
Mr. Benedicte Baduel
,
Carolin Geginat
, and
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
This paper examines the extent to which firms in selected MENA countries reported being constrained by the business environment around the time of the Arab Spring and the extent to which these constraints affected their employment performance. The results suggest that small firms in MENA faced more structural constraints than similar firms in other regions. We also find that MENA firms’ weaker job creation can be explained in great part by the macroeconomic environment and structural constraints. Low GDP growth, falling external competitiveness, corruption, lack of access to finance and poor access to electricity are found to explain a significant part of the lack of employment growth in MENA firms compared to their peers.
Keywords:
WP; employment growth; World Bank enterprises survey; enterprise survey; firms' characteristic; credit constraint; employment performance; firm exit; firms in Mena; medium-sized firm; SMEs; MENA; Arab Countries in Transition; private sector; employment; employment creation; World Bank enterprise survey; micro firm; Job creation; Business environment; Labor productivity; Electricity; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Structural Reforms and Labor Reallocation: A Cross-Country Analysis
Khalid ElFayoumi
,
Anta Ndoye
,
Miss Sanaa Nadeem
, and
Gregory Auclair
Institutional and market frictions impose costs on the reallocation of labor from low to high productivity sectors, leading to suboptimal allocations and a loss in aggregate labor productivity. Using cross-country sector-level data, we use a dynamic panel error correction model to compute the speed of sectoral labor adjustment, as well as the contribution of structural reforms in governance, labor and product markets, trade and openness, and the financial sector to lowering the costs of labor reallocation. We find that, on average, sectoral employment shares converge towards equilibrium allocations, closing about 13.7 percent of labor productivity gaps each year; this speed of labor adjustment varies across sectors and income groups. On structural reforms, we find a significant association between more efficient labor reallocation and financial market liberalization, less bureaucracy, strong judicial and regulatory environment, trade liberalization, better education and more flexible labor and product markets.
Keywords:
WP; product market; Growth; labor productivity; structural change; productivity gap; labor productivity calculation; productivity sector; TFP productivity; productivity growth; sector TFP; product market reform; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Structural reforms; Global; Middle East; Eastern Europe; North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the distributional effects of tax reforms in Morocco. Overall, the performance of Morocco’s tax system is satisfactory, but there is scope to strengthen it and make it more equitable and less distortive. Morocco would benefit from a comprehensive and well explained tax reform strategy aiming to reduce inequality and boost growth. For this, a recommended tax reform package should combine several key components, for example, reducing tax exemptions, raising property tax, and lowering corporate tax rates. At the same time, the targeting of social programs should be strengthened. Such a reform approach would protect the most vulnerable and help broaden the tax base, remove tax distortions, and better share the tax burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Morocco; tax rate; rate; tax; productivity growth; labor productivity level; tax reform; productivity gap; reform package; Value-added tax; Corporate income tax; Productivity; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth and Structural Reforms: A New Assessment
Lone Engbo Christiansen
,
Mr. Thierry Tressel
, and
Mr. Martin Schindler
This paper presents a simultaneous assessment of the relationship between economic performance and three groups of economic reforms: domestic finance, trade, and the capital account. Among these, domestic financial reforms, and trade reforms, are robustly associated with economic growth, but only in middle-income countries. In contrast, we do not find any systematic positive relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth. Moreover, the effect of domestic financial reforms on economic growth in middle-income countries is explained by improvements in measured aggregate TFP growth, not by higher aggregate investment. We present evidence that variation in the quality of property rights helps explain the heterogeneity of the effectiveness of financial and trade reforms in developing countries. The evidence suggests that sufficiently developed property rights are a precondition for reaping the benefits of economic reform. Our results are robust to endogeneity bias and a number of alternative specifications.
Keywords:
WP; liberalization index; dependent variable; capital account reform
Cover IMF Working Papers
Revisiting the Determinants of Productivity Growth - What’s new?
Mr. Boileau Loko
and
Mame Astou Diouf
This paper studies the main determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) growth using principal component analysis and a dynamic panel data model and, through a case study, explores key areas where accelerated reforms in the Maghreb countries would boost TFP gains. The results reveal that reforms targeted at attracting foreign direct investment and rationalizing government size, shifting resources from low-productivity sectors to higher ones, and encouraging women to enter the work force, could accelerate TFP gains. Equally important are reforms aimed at strengthening human capital, increasing the volume of trade, and improving the business environment.
Keywords:
WP; productivity growth; physical capital; TFP gain; C. productivity equation; C. boosting productivity; determinants of total factor productivity; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Foreign direct investment; Maghreb
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper on Morocco analyzes Morocco’s growth performance over the past thirty-five years with a special focus on the more recent past. The paper presents stylized trends in growth; it first puts the overall growth performance of Morocco in an international perspective, including an analysis of the evolution of growth volatility, and then decomposes growth by major sectors to retrospectively identify patterns of structural transformation as well as the most dynamic sectors. The paper also analyzes accumulation of factors of production and total factor productivity growth through a growth accounting exercise.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; capital stock; nominal GDP; exchange rate regime; growth performance; interest rate; total factor productivity growth; IMF staff estimate; growth objective; primary sector; GDP growth; Exchange rate arrangements; Exchange rates; Exchange rate flexibility; Total factor productivity; Conventional peg; Global; Middle East; North Africa; Eastern Europe; East Africa; Maghreb; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Growth in the Middle East and North Africa
Ms. Dalia S Hakura
This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth. The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries. In GCC countries, where oil revenues are significant, large governments appear to have been a key factor stifling private-sector growth and impeding diversification. In other MENA countries poor institutional quality has held back growth. Political instability is also shown to have played a role. While the MENA region's growth differential with east Asia is explained well in the 1980s, this is less so in the 1990s.
Keywords:
WP; country; Mena; oil country; government; GCC; economic growth; Middle East and North Africa; oil; institutions; conflicts; MENA country; growth differential; GCC country; MENA subgroup; Total factor productivity; Income; Terms of trade; Government consumption; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa
Cover Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa
Challenges of Growth and Globalization in the Middle East and North Africa
Mr. George T. Abed
and
Mr. Hamid R Davoodi

Abstract

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is an economically diverse region. Despite undertaking economic reforms in many countries, and having considerable success in avoiding crises and achieving macroeconomic stability, the region’s economic performance in the past 30 years has been below potential. This paper takes stock of the region’s relatively weak performance, explores the reasons for this out come, and proposes an agenda for urgent reforms.

Keywords:
MISC PUBS; Misc.; country; MENA region; MENA country; oil exporter; privatization receipt; oil-producing country; MENA oil country; MENA countries' experience; a number of country; Public sector; Total factor productivity; Population growth; Labor force; Global; East Asia; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa