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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 9 of 9 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Public Perceptions of Canada’s Investment Climate: A Natural Language Processing-Based Approach
Flora Lutz
,
Yuanchen Yang
, and
Chengyu Huang
Canada’s muted productivity growth during recent years has sparked concerns about the country’s investment climate. In this study, we develop a new natural language processing (NPL) based indicator, mining the richness of Twitter (now X) accounts to measure trends in the public perceptions of Canada’s investment climate. We find that while the Canadian investment climate appears to be generally favorable, there are signs of slippage in some categories in recent periods, such as with respect to governance and infrastructure. This result is confirmed by both survey-based and NLP-based indicators. We also find that our NLP-based indicators would suggest that perceptions of Canada’s investment climate are similar to perceptions of U.S. investment climate, except with respect to governance, where views of U.S. governance are notably more negative. Comparing our novel indicator relative to traditional survey-based indicators, we find that the NLP-based indicators are statistically significant in helping to predict investment flows, similar to survey-based measures. Meanwhile, the new NLP-based indicator offers insights into the nuances of data, allowing us to identify specific grievances. Finally, we construct a similar indicator for the U.S. and compare trends across countries.
Keywords:
Investment Climate; Canada; Machine Learning; Sentiment Analysis; muted productivity growth; investmest climate; investment flow; NLP-based indicator; Climate finance; Competition; Infrastructure; Productivity; Mining sector; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Projection Model for Resource-rich and Dollarized Economy: The Democratic Republic of the Congo
Victor Musa
,
Bertrand Gilles Umba
,
Lewis Mambo
,
Jonas Kibala
,
Christian Kandolo
,
Josephine Mushiya
,
Yannick Luvezo
,
Jules Nsunda
,
Grégoire Lumbala
,
Yves Siasi
,
Serge Mfumukanda
,
Lubaki Ange
,
Kabata Olivier
,
Luc Shindano
,
Dyna Heng
,
Diego Rodriguez Guzman
, and
Barna Szabo
The paper introduces a semi-structural Quarterly Projection Model (QPM) tailored for the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), highlighting its resource richness and high degree of dollarization. We provide an overview of the model's specifications to elucidate key features of the DRC economy and present its properties, evaluating its alignment with DRC data and assessing its goodness of fit. Additionally, the paper demonstrates the QPM's practical application through a counterfactual scenario, comparing policy recommendations with the actual policy responses of the Central Bank of the Republic of Congo to observed exchange rate and inflation pressures in 2023. Beyond the QPM, the paper showcases supplementary tools that enhance its utility for generating medium-term forecasts and developiong narratives in support of monetary policymaking. Specifically, we introduce the Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecast models, designed to assess the economy in real-time and predict short-term inflationary trends.
Keywords:
Resource-rich; Dollarization; Monetary policy; Inflation; Exchange Rate Policies; DRC QPM model; DRC economy; DRC's economy; Near-Term Forecast model; GDP data; Annex II; Output gap; Exchange rates; Mining sector; Exchange rate devaluation; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors
Patrick Blagrave
and
Marika Santoro
Using a multivariate filter, we estimate potential growth rates in Chile’s mining and non-mining sectors. Estimates for the mining sector incorporate information on copper prices, whereas estimates for non-mining reflect information on inflation and unemployment rates. To better understand the drivers of potential growth, we decompose estimates into capital, labor (adjusted for human-capital and hours worked), and total-factor productivity using a production-function. Our estimates of potential output in Chile suggest that an important part of the recent growth slowdown has been structural, with potential-output growth slowing to 2½ percent in recent years, although it plausibly could be higher in the medium-term.
Keywords:
WP; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; Production Function; mining-sector output gap; trend copper-price movement; copper-price gap; production-function accounting; gap shock; MVF estimate; output-gap equation; trend output; MVF estimation result; price change; Mining sector; Output gap; Metal prices; Total factor productivity; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Investment-Specific Productivity Growth - Chile in a Global Perspective
Gabriel Di Bella
and
Mr. Martin D. Cerisola
By the end of 2007, Chile's total factor productivity was lower than ten years earlier, a performance that contrasted sharply with the previous decade, when productivity grew by a cumulative 30 percent. This paper assesses productivity trends in Chile, by decomposing productivity into investment-specific technological change (associated with improvements in the quality of capital) and neutral technological change (related to the organization of productive activities). It concludes that investment-specific technological improvements have contributed significantly to long-term growth in Chile, in line with trends observed in other net commodity exporters, while neutral technological change has been slow.
Keywords:
WP; market concentration
Cover Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa
Post-Stabilization Economics in Sub-Saharan Africa
Lessons from Mozambique
Mr. Shanaka J Peiris
and
Mr. Jean A. P. Clément

Abstract

Mozambique is an economic success story in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Its remarkable achievements offer valuable lessons to other low-income countries in a post-stabilization economic phase, including how they can efficiently manage a scaling up of foreign aid aimed at poverty reduction. Of special interest to other sub-Saharan countries are the book's discussions of Mozambique's progress toward consolidating macroeconomic and financial stability, and the challenges it faces in ensuring long-term sustainability, creating a virtuous cycle of natural resource use, and implementing second-generation structural reforms to sustain its growth. This book also provides a summary of the most recent research on issues related to post-stabilization economics in SSA.

Keywords:
BOOK; Mozambique; exchange rate; productivity; poverty; income; poverty reduction; monetary management; transmission mechanism; government implementation; crop income; Total factor productivity; Real exchange rates; Exports; Exchange rates; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa; Southern Africa; East Asia; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Business Cycle Accounting For Chile
Mr. Ludvig Söderling
and
Ina Simonovska
We investigate sources of economic fluctuations in Chile during 1998-2007 within the framework of a standard neoclassical growth model with time-varying frictions (wedges). We analyze the relative importance of efficiency, labor, investment, and government/trade wedges for business cycles in Chile. The purpose of this exercise is twofold: (i) focus the policy discussion on the most important wedges in the economy; and (ii) identify which broad class of models would present fruitful avenues for further research. We find that different wedges have played different roles during our studied period, but that the efficiency and labor wedges have had the greatest impact. We also compare our results with existing studies on Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico.
Keywords:
WP; investment wedge
Cover IMF Working Papers
Sources of Growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A Cointegration Approach
Matthias Cinyabuguma
and
Mr. Bernardin Akitoby
The paper investigates the sources of growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo since 1960 and evaluates the relative importance of total factor productivity growth and factor accumulation, using a cointegration method and a growth accounting framework. The main findings confirm that poor economic policies and bad governance (through their effects on total factor productivity and capital accumulation) contributed to the country's economic decline during the 40-year period, 1960-2000. Looking forward, the paper finds that the right policies are being put in place to pave the way for a restoration of economic growth.
Keywords:
WP; production function; physical capital; Congo; growth accounting; TFP; cointegration; real value; transport sector; GDP ratio; transport production function; enhanced interim program; Total factor productivity; Public expenditure review; Mining sector; Transportation; Agricultural sector; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix investigates the sources of growth in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and evaluates the relative importance of productivity growth and factor accumulation. The analysis is extended to the key sectors of the economy: agriculture, mining, and transport. The paper assesses the DRC’s medium-term growth prospects and compares them with both the post-conflict growth experience to date and the growth objectives of the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility-supported program. The paper also suggests a simple, yet powerful, methodology for projecting the real GDP growth rate.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; BCC; Congo; currency; dollarization; government; government control; de facto authorities; parts of the DRC; development partner; a number of area; foreign currency; Currencies; Total factor productivity; Public expenditure review; Mining sector; East Asia; Sub-Saharan Africa; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Botswana: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes economic developments in Botswana during the 1990s. The paper analyzes the growth process during 1982/83–1996/97 by assessing the contribution of capital, labor, and technological progress, both at the macroeconomic and sectoral levels. The paper examines the diversification initiatives undertaken by Botswana and the extent to which diversification and employment creation have been achieved. It provides the background to the unemployment problem, and summarizes Botswana’s policy initiatives to diversify and create sustainable employment.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Botswana; diversification; capital; employment growth; Botswana authorities; computed TFP; employment opportunity; policy initiative; TFP performance; Total factor productivity; Employment; Mining sector; Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; Southern Africa