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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 11 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Kyrgyz Republic x
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Cover IMF Working Papers
Drivers of Inflation in the Caucasus and Central Asia
Maria Atamanchuk
,
Alejandro Hajdenberg
,
Dalia Kadissi
,
Giulio Lisi
, and
Nasir H Rao
In parallel with global developments, inflation in the Central Asia and Caucasus (CCA) has exhibited large swings in recent years. This paper investigates inflation dynamics in the CCA and its main drivers and derives conclusions that can inform policymaking. The analysis is based on three empirical approaches. Inflation drivers and its dynamics are investigated through the estimation of a Phillips curve augmented with foreign factors and a panel vector autoregression. The paper also assesses the role of monetary policy in steering inflation outcomes by estimating a local projection model. The paper finds that external factors play a major role in determining CCA inflation dynamics, although domestic factors (e.g., demand conditions, expectations) also contribute. Monetary policy is found to have a statistically significant effect on inflation, including by moderating the impact of external drivers. The findings point to the need to continue strengthening policy frameworks to steer expectations and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy, while establishing adequate social safety nets to cushion the impact from global shocks.
Keywords:
Inflation; Caucasus and Central Asia; Phillips curve; panel VAR; local projection method; monetary policy; CCA inflation dynamics; inflation driver; Phillips Curve estimation; inflation development; inflation outcome; Food prices; Output gap; Nominal effective exchange rate; Oil prices; Global; Central Asia and the Caucasus
Cover Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2024
Navigating the Evolving Geoeconomic Landscape
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.

Abstract

Economic growth in the Middle East and North Africa and Caucasus and Central Asia regions is projected to strengthen in the near term, but only to the extent that current challenges abate. Ongoing conflicts and oil production cuts are dampening economic performance, and medium-term growth prospects have weakened over the past two decades. Moreover, high uncertainty looms, with key risks including escalating conflicts, increased geoeconomic fragmentation, and commodity price volatility. To boost growth and create jobs—especially for women and youth—reform priorities include strengthening governance, encouraging private sector investment, and advancing financial development.

Keywords:
Middle East; North Africa; Caucasus; Central Asia; Gaza; Sudan; Lebanon; trade patterns; economic growth; reforms; growth prospects; shocks; conflicts; uncertainty; economic performance; growth prospects; risks; oil production cuts; OPEC+; investment; geoeconomic fragmentation; IMF; governance; medium-term; capital deepening; women; youth; employment; commodity price volatility; private sector; financial development; CCA region; CCA economy; CCA country; IMF staff calculation; oil exporter; Total factor productivity; Financial sector development; Oil exports; Inflation; Labor force participation; East Africa; Central Asia and the Caucasus; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Estimating the Neutral Interest Rate in the Kyrgyz Republic
Iulia Ruxandra Teodoru
and
Asel Toktonalieva
This paper estimates the neutral interest rate in the Kyrgyz Republic using a range of methodologies. Results indicate that the real neutral rate is about 4 percent based on an average of models and 3.7 percent based on a Quarterly Projection Model. This is higher than in many emerging markets and is likely explained by higher public debt and an elevated risk premium, low creditor rights and contractual enforcement, and low domestic savings. The use of an estimate of the neutral interest rate provides useful guidance to monetary policy and enhances transparency and independence of the central bank. Our estimate provides a quantitative benchmark for the monetary policy stance in the context of a central bank that is building analytical capacity, integrating additional insights in its decision-making process, and working to improve its communication. Strengthening the monetary transmission mechanism will be critical to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy, including by allowing more exchange rate flexibility to support the transition to a full-fledged inflation targeting regime, and reducing excess liquidity to enhance the credit channel, reducing dollarization and high interest rate spreads that adversely affect the transmission of the policy rate to the economy.
Keywords:
WP; interest rate; neutral rate; interest rate gap; transmission mechanism; inflation target; risk premium; policy rate; food inflation; inflation expectation; Inflation; Real interest rates; Central bank policy rate; Output gap; Exchange rates; Global; neutral interest rate; monetary policy stance; Taylor rule; quarterly projection model; general equilibrium model; federal funds rate; effectiveness of monetary policy; Inflation targeting; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
Mishel Ghassibe
,
Maximiliano Appendino
, and
Samir Elsadek Mahmoudi
This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.
Keywords:
WP; SME financial inclusion; Small and Medium Sized Enterprises; Financial Inclusion; Economic Growth; monetary policy transmission; growth gain; output gap; SME Financial inclusion index; labor productivity gain; SME employment; employment growth; Small and medium enterprises; Labor productivity; Productivity; Employment; Middle East and Central Asia
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Administration and Firm Performance: New Data and Evidence for Emerging Market and Developing Economies
Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
,
Florian Misch
,
Mr. Duncan Cleary
, and
Munawer Khwaja
Tax compliance costs tend to be disproportionately higher for small and young businesses. This paper examines how the quality of tax administration affects firm performance for a large sample of firms in emerging market and developing economies. We construct a novel, internationally comparable, and multidimensional index of tax administration quality (the TAQI) using information from the Tax Administration Diagnostic Assessment Tool. We show that better tax administration attenuates the productivity gap of small and young firms relative to larger and older firms, a result that is robust to controlling for other aspects of tax policy and of economic governance, alternative definitions of small and young firms, and measures of the quality of tax administration. From a policy perspective, we provide evidence that countries can reap growth and productivity dividends from improvements in tax administration that lower compliance costs faced by firms.
Keywords:
WP; tax administration; compliance cost; firm performance; total factor productivity; omitted firm category; small business; firm productivity; cash flow; enterprise manager; micro enterprise; compliance burden; Tax administration core functions; Compliance costs; Tax return filing compliance; Labor productivity; Tax Administration Diagnostic and Assessment Tool (TADAT); Central and Eastern Europe; Central Asia; Global
Cover IMF Staff Papers
IMF Staff Papers, Volume 54, No. 1
International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
This is the first issue of IMF Staff Papers published under a special partnership between the IMF and Palgrave Macmillan. Very little will change with regard to the journal's visual appearance, though significant service quality enhancements (e.g., an on-line interactive edition) will rollout before the end of 2007. For more information and regular updates, please access http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfsp/index.html.
Keywords:
SP; forecast error; distance coefficient; commodity price shock; core inflation measure; adjustment effort; Commodity price shocks; Inflation; Employment; Commodity price fluctuations; Employment rate; Central and Eastern Europe; Western Hemisphere; Middle East; Africa; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Analysis of Recent Growth in Low-Income CIS Countries
Ms. Elena Loukoianova
and
Ms. Anna Unigovskaya
This paper analyzes factors that determine recent economic growth in the low-income countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States.2 The main findings are as follows: (1) productivity gains in export-oriented sectors and expansion of exports may have become the main sources of growth in five of the seven CIS-7 countries, while in the early years of transition the output recovery was mainly driven by consumption; (2) economic growth has concentrated in agriculture and the raw material sectors, and, thus, is vulnerable to changes in external conditions; and (3) structural reforms matter for growth, which is consistent with previous research on growth in transition countries.
Keywords:
WP; real GDP; TFP growth; exchange rate; CIS Goskomstat
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Kyrgyz Republic: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper examines figures related to the key policy areas for the Kyrgyz Republic. Specifically, the paper studies the sources of growth, the cost competitiveness of export, and trade restrictions in the region, which are all linked to the achievement of the growth and poverty reduction targets of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy. It addresses the issues of agricultural taxation and fiscal aspects of the environment. The paper also focuses on a specific structural problem in taxation, and analyzes the fiscal aspects of environmental protection.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Kyrgyzstan; export; VAT; cost; TFP growth; Kyrgyz export; cost competitiveness; NPRS growth target; output growth in the Kyrgyz Republic; Exports; Value-added tax; Agricultural sector; Total factor productivity; Transportation; Central Asia; Baltics; Western Europe
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Mongolia: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Appendix analyzes growth and recovery in Mongolia during transition. The paper describes the major sources of economic growth in Mongolia since the early 1980s in the context of a basic growth accounting framework. It discusses Mongolia’s post-transition growth performance relative to other transition countries. This paper also summarizes the main weaknesses of the existing national accounts statistics and reviews the recent developments and prospects for the main components of GDP.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; authority; firm; Mongolia; tertiary sector; GDP deflator; gas distribution company; physical capital; enterprise performance; low income; animal loss; transition economy; output recovery; cashmere company; beverage company; market economy; Privatization; Energy sector; Agricultural sector; Total factor productivity; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover Growth Experience in Transition Countries, 90-98
Growth Experience in Transition Countries, 90-98
International Monetary Fund

Abstract

This study, another in the series focusing on special issues in transition, reviews the experience of output decline and recovery in the 25 countries of eastern and central Europe and the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union. Although these countries began the process of economic transformation with similar circumstances of output decline, the extent of decline, its duration, and the sustainability of recovery in growth varied considerably. The authors explore the factors behind this variation and find that the most important policies promoting early and sustained recovery were ones that supported financial stabilization and structural reforms in key areas such as private sector development, the tax system, economic liberalization, and secure property rights.

Keywords:
OP; transition country; country; economy; transition economy; rating agency; market signal; productivity calculation; Structural reforms; Privatization; Foreign direct investment; Productivity; Europe; Baltics; Central and Eastern Europe; Asia and Pacific