Narrow Your Choices

Refine By Countries

Refine By Series

Refine By Language

Refine By Date

—

Refine By IMF Taxonomy

Refine By JEL Taxonomy

Refine by LOC Taxonomy

Refine By THEMA Taxonomy

  • Print
  • Save

Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

You are looking at 1 - 10 of 79 items for :

  • Type: Journal Issue x
  • Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search x
Clear All Modify Search
Cover IMF Working Papers
Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID-19 Pandemic
Olga Bespalova
This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
Keywords:
Econometric Modeling; Forecasting; tourism; arrivals; tourist arrivals; Google Trends; flight capacity utiilization; load factor; time-series models; time-series econometrics; arima; Aruba; Covid-19; Pandemic; tourism arrival; arrivals to Aruba; Aruba tourism authority; time-series model; IMF working papers; consumption expenditure; Capacity utilization; Unemployment rate; Caribbean
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Austria: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
C. firm dynamism; labor market issue; spending measure; productivity in Austria; economic scarring; COVID-19; Productivity; Financial statements; Labor markets; Unemployment; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
New Zealand: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Selected Issues
Keywords:
E. policy option; B. labor market; labor market issue; scarring effect; Law equation; Active labor market policies; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Potential output; COVID-19; Global; Housing prices
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Colombia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Western Hemisphere Dept.
Selected Issues
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; income balance; production function approach; employment loss; labor input; opening output gap
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Informality and the Business Cycle
Frederic Lambert
,
Mr. Andrea Pescatori
, and
Mr. Frederik G Toscani
Labor market informality is a pervasive feature of most developing economies. Motivated by the empirical regularity that the labor informality rate falls with GDP per capita, both at business cycle frequency and in a cross-section of countries, and that the Okun's coefficient falls with the level of labor informality, we build a small open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two sectors, formal and informal, which can replicate these key stylized facts. The model is calibrated to Colombia. The results show that labor market and tax reforms play an important role in changing the informality rate but also caution against over-optimism - with low GDP per capita, informality will always be relatively high as there is insufficient demand for formal goods. Quantitatively we find that higher productivity in the formal sector is key in explaining the difference between Colombia and countries with significantly lower informality. We use the model to study how labor informality and labor market frictions mediate the cyclical response of the economy to shocks, including commodity price shocks which are particularly relevant in Latin America. Informality is shown to play an important role as a shock absorber with the informal-formal margin limiting movements in the employed-unemployed margin.
Keywords:
labor market; informality; business cycle; WP; commodity price shock; frictions affect labor market dynamics; GDP growth; sector TFP; labor market informality; TFP parameter; business cycle model; TFP shock; labor market frictions affect labor market dynamics; Total factor productivity; Labor markets; Business cycles; Unemployment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Labor Market Slack and the Output Gap: The Case of Korea
Mr. Niels-Jakob H Hansen
,
Mr. Joannes Mongardini
, and
Fan Zhang
Output gap estimates are widely used to inform macroeconomic policy decisions, including in Korea. The main determinant of these estimates is the measure of labor market slack. The traditional measure of unemployment in Korea yields an incomplete estimate of labor market slack, given that many workers prefer involuntary part-time jobs or leaving the labor force rather than registering as unemployed. This paper discusses a way in which the measure of unemployment can be broadened to yield a more accurate measure of labor market slack. This broader measure is then used to estimate the output gap using a multivariate filter, yielding a more meaningful measure of the output gap.
Keywords:
WP; labor market slack; output gap estimate; labor force; discouraged worker; Potential output; labor markets; labor market resource; labor market condition; persistent output gap; output gap from the MVF; Output gap; Unemployment; Capacity utilization; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Lithuania: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper investigates skills mismatch and active labor market policy in Lithuania. Wage flexibility is underpinned by one of the lowest densities of trade union and employer organization and the rare occurrence of collective bargaining. Thus, wage setting largely happens at the firm level. Real wages and productivity have been traditionally closely linked and temporary deviations have been self-correcting. In contrast, structural unemployment has been traditionally high, although it appears to be gradually falling. Large structural unemployment can have a significant long-term impact on potential growth and, therefore, on employment. Lithuania suffers from relative labor shortage for high-skilled workers and surplus of low- and medium-skilled workers. Thus, there are labor shortages in skill-intensive sectors. Lithuania has shown a sharp rise in skills mismatch for the country in the aftermath of the crisis. Vacancy rates and wage growth by sectors also suggest an excess supply of lower skilled workers and shortage of high-skilled ones.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Lithuania; interest rate gap; transmission mechanism; statistics Lithuania; wage growth; The Market; open economy; Labor markets; Active labor market policies; Output gap; Unemployment; Global; Europe; Eastern Europe; Western Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States: An Extension with Labor Market Hysteresis
Ali Alichi
,
Hayk Avetisyan
,
Mr. Douglas Laxton
,
Shalva Mkhatrishvili
,
Armen Nurbekyan
,
Lusine Torosyan
, and
Hou Wang
This paper extends the multivariate filter approach of estimating potential output developed by Alichi and others (2018) to incorporate labor market hysteresis. This extension captures the idea that long and deep recessions (expansions) cause persistent damage (improvement) to the labor market, thereby reducing (increasing) potential output. Applying the model to U.S. data results in significantly smaller estimates of output gaps, and higher estimates of the NAIRU, after the global financial crisis, compared to estimates without hysteresis. The smaller output gaps partly explain the absence of persistent deflation despite the slow recovery during 2010-2017. Going forward, if strong growth performance continues well beyond 2018, hysteresis is expected to result in a structural improvement in growth and employment.
Keywords:
WP; NAIRU; Macroeconomic Modeling; Potential Output; output gap shock; unemployment gap; output gap estimate; Volcker recession; inflation target shock; output gap in the with-hysteresis model; inflation expectation; Output gap; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Inflation
Cover IMF Working Papers
A Closed Form Multivariate Linear Filter
Mr. Francis Vitek
This paper considers the problem of jointly decomposing a set of time series variables into cyclical and trend components, subject to sets of stochastic linear restrictions among these cyclical and trend components. We derive a closed form solution to an ordinary problem featuring homogeneous penalty term difference orders and static restrictions, as well as to a generalized problem featuring heterogeneous penalty term difference orders and dynamic restrictions. We use our Generalized Multivariate Linear Filter to jointly estimate potential output, the natural rate of unemployment and the natural rate of interest, conditional on selected equilibrium conditions from a calibrated New Keynesian model.
Keywords:
WP; Closed form; Multivariate linear filter; New Keynesian model; Potential output; Natural rate of unemployment; Natural rate of interest; gap estimate; objective function; estimates to parameter perturbation; parameter estimate; maximization problem; inflation gap estimate; equilibrium value; interest rate gap; estimation Results; Unemployment rate; Output gap; Central bank policy rate; Neoclassical theory; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Ireland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the cyclical position of the Irish economy. Assessing the business cycle in Ireland is complicated by the open character of its labor market and large presence of globally active multinationals. However, analysis suggests that the Irish economy is in the midst of a cyclical upswing. All methods suggest a positive output gap in 2017, while the labor market shows signs of upward wage pressures, as net immigration has been weak so far. These signs are consistent with a cyclical upswing, amid strong estimated potential output growth, and point to risks of a boom-bust cycle, should the economy continue to push the growth momentum.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; commercial real estate; price; CRE price; labor force gap; growth labor force growth; exit tax; CRE market; Labor force; Corporate income tax; Personal income; Labor markets; Unemployment rate; Global; Europe