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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Economic Impacts and the Regulation of AI: A Review of the Academic Literature and Policy Actions
Mariarosaria Comunale
and
Andrea Manera
We review the literature on the effects of Artificial Intelligence (AI) adoption and the ongoing regulatory efforts concerning this technology. Economic research encompasses growth, employment, productivity, and income inequality effects, while regulation covers market competition, data privacy, copyright, national security, ethics concerns, and financial stability. We find that: (i) theoretical research agrees that AI will affect most occupations and transform growth, but empirical findings are inconclusive on employment and productivity effects; (ii) regulation has focused primarily on topics not explored by the academic literature; (iii) across countries, regulations differ widely in scope and approaches and face difficult trade-offs.
Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence (AI); labor market; task exposure; productivity; regulation; governance.; productivity effect; regulation of AI; AI system; AI model; AI technology; Artificial intelligence; Machine learning; Automation; Global
Cover Staff Discussion Notes
Digitalization During the COVID-19 Crisis: Implications for Productivity and Labor Markets in Advanced Economies
Ms. Florence Jaumotte
,
Longji Li
,
Andrea Medici
,
Myrto Oikonomou
,
Carlo Pizzinelli
,
Mr. Ippei Shibata
,
Jiaming Soh
, and
Ms. Marina Mendes Tavares
Digitalization induced by the pandemic was seen both as a possible silver-lining from the crisis that could increase longer-term productivity and a risk for further labor market inequality between digital and non-digital workers. The note shows that the pandemic accelerated digitalization and triggered a partial catch-up by less digitalized entities in advanced economies. Higher digitalization levels shielded substantially productivity and hours worked during the crisis. However, the extent to which the pandemic-induced digitalization led to structural change in the economy is less clear. Less digitalized sectors have rebounded more strongly, albeit after stronger declines, and while workers in digital occupations were more shielded from the crisis, there does not appear to be a structural change in the composition of labor demand. Meanwhile, shifts in labor supply are more likely to be permanent, driven by the increase in working from home.
Keywords:
Digitalization; COVID-19; labor market; productivity; productivity regression analysis; digitalization level; longer-term productivity; pandemic-induced digitalization; labor market tightness; Labor productivity; Labor markets; Total factor productivity; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tracing Productivity Growth Channels in the UK
Mr. Daniel Garcia-Macia
and
Julia Korosteleva
What drove the UK productivity slowdown post-GFC, and how is the post-Covid recovery expected to differ? This paper traces the sources of TFP growth in the UK over the last two decades through the lens of a structural model of innovation, using registry data on the universe of firms. The dominant innovation source in the pre-GFC decade were improvements by incumbent firms on their own products, whereas creation of new varieties by entrants took a leading role post-GFC. In the Covid recovery, survey data suggests that creative destruction (i.e., innovation replacing other firms’ products) is expected to gain importance. This emphasizes the need for growth policies that facilitate labor and capital reallocation across firms, in addition to R&D support.
Keywords:
economic growth; innovation; creative destruction; UK productivity slowdown post-GFC; UK market economy; GFC decade; innovation source; leading role; sources of TFP growth; exit rate; Employment; Total factor productivity; Job creation; Productivity; Job destruction; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Financial Crises, Investment Slumps, and Slow Recoveries
Ms. Valerie Cerra
,
Mai Hakamada
, and
Mr. Ruy Lama
One of the most puzzling facts in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) is that output across advanced and emerging economies recovered at a much slower rate than anticipated by most forecasting agencies. This paper delves into the mechanics behind the observed slow recovery and the associated permanent output losses in the aftermath of the crisis, with a particular focus on the role played by financial frictions and investment dynamics. The paper provides two main contributions. First, we empirically document that lower investment during financial crises is the key factor leading to permanent loss of output and total factor productivity (TFP) in the wake of a crisis. Second, we develop a DSGE model with financial frictions and capital-embodied technological change capable of reproducing the empirical facts. We also evaluate the role of financial policies in stabilizing output and TFP in response to disruptions in financial markets.
Keywords:
Medium-term TFP loss; impulse response; investment dynamics; hysteresis effect; aftermath of a financial crises; Total factor productivity; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Banking crises; Self-employment; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
What is the Impact of Increased Business Competition?
Sónia Félix
and
Chiara Maggi
This paper studies the macroeconomic effect and underlying firm-level transmission channels of a reduction in business entry costs. We provide novel evidence on the response of firms' entry, exit, and employment decisions. To do so, we use as a natural experiment a reform in Portugal that reduced entry time and costs. Using the staggered implementation of the policy across the Portuguese municipalities, we find that the reform increased local entry and employment by, respectively, 25% and 4.8% per year in its first four years of implementation. Moreover, around 60% of the increase in employment came from incumbent firms expanding their size, with most of the rise occurring among the most productive firms. Standard models of firm dynamics, which assume a constant elasticity of substitution, are inconsistent with the expansionary and heterogeneous response across incumbent firms. We show that in a model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups the most productive firms face a lower demand elasticity and expand their employment in response to increased entry.
Keywords:
WP; price level; math display; productivity distribution; idiosyncratic productivity; firms drive; municipality Count firm; incumbents firm; pre-existing firm; Employment; Labor demand; Labor supply; Productivity; Demand elasticity; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Informality and Aggregate Productivity: The Case of Mexico
Mr. Jorge A Alvarez
and
Cian Ruane
We assess the aggregate productivity impact of distortions arising from labor regulations in Mexico and how they interact with informality. Using employment surveys and a firm-level economic census, we document a number of novel features about informal firms in Mexico. We then construct and estimate a model of heterogeneous firms and endogenous informality to study the micro and macro impacts from various policy reforms. Some reforms may have large impacts on informal employment but small impacts on aggregate productivity.
Keywords:
WP; informal firm; size distribution; profit function; firm's idiosyncratic productivity; incumbent firm; firm value function; unproductive firm; firms in Mexico; idiosyncratic productivity; Informal employment; Productivity; Wages; Public expenditure review; aggregate productivity impact; IMF working papers; policy reform; front matter page; Self-employment
Cover IMF Working Papers
Private Sector Job Creation in MENA: Prioritizing the Reform Agenda
Mr. Benedicte Baduel
,
Carolin Geginat
, and
Ms. Gaelle Pierre
This paper examines the extent to which firms in selected MENA countries reported being constrained by the business environment around the time of the Arab Spring and the extent to which these constraints affected their employment performance. The results suggest that small firms in MENA faced more structural constraints than similar firms in other regions. We also find that MENA firms’ weaker job creation can be explained in great part by the macroeconomic environment and structural constraints. Low GDP growth, falling external competitiveness, corruption, lack of access to finance and poor access to electricity are found to explain a significant part of the lack of employment growth in MENA firms compared to their peers.
Keywords:
WP; employment growth; World Bank enterprises survey; enterprise survey; firms' characteristic; credit constraint; employment performance; firm exit; firms in Mena; medium-sized firm; SMEs; MENA; Arab Countries in Transition; private sector; employment; employment creation; World Bank enterprise survey; micro firm; Job creation; Business environment; Labor productivity; Electricity; Central and Eastern Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Road to Industrialized Africa: Role of Efficient Factor Market in Firm Growth
Manabu Nose
After a decade of rapid growth, industrialization has lost ground with shrinking manufacturing sector and high informality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). This paper explores how land market and labor regulations affect factor allocative efficiency and firm performance in SSA. Using pooled data on firm balance sheets for 40 countries in SSA, the results identify significant land and labor misallocations due to limited market allocation of land and inappropriate regulatory policies. Using variations in ethnic diversity and the intensity of regulatory actions to peer firms at subnational level as instrumental variables, local average treatment effects show large productivity gains from factor reallocations, especially for marginally productive firms. Panel data results for Nigerian firms confirm factor market inefficiency as a principal driver of declining productivity, while showing that the 2011 minimum wage reform increased firm size. The results imply that improving formal regulation is critical to support firm growth at the stage of weak legal capacity, while informal sector monitoring gets effective as legal capacity develops.
Keywords:
WP; allocative efficiency; minimum wage; firm size; factor market; Firm growth; misallocation; land market; labor regulations; allocation index; tax contribution; firm productivity; firm performance; productivity measure; panel datum; firm size distribution; dual economy; firm age; Minimum wages; Labor markets; Wages; Labor demand; Asia and Pacific; Africa; Southern Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; policy effect; case study; A. aggregate level analysis; A. firm size
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Morocco: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines the distributional effects of tax reforms in Morocco. Overall, the performance of Morocco’s tax system is satisfactory, but there is scope to strengthen it and make it more equitable and less distortive. Morocco would benefit from a comprehensive and well explained tax reform strategy aiming to reduce inequality and boost growth. For this, a recommended tax reform package should combine several key components, for example, reducing tax exemptions, raising property tax, and lowering corporate tax rates. At the same time, the targeting of social programs should be strengthened. Such a reform approach would protect the most vulnerable and help broaden the tax base, remove tax distortions, and better share the tax burden.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Morocco; tax rate; rate; tax; productivity growth; labor productivity level; tax reform; productivity gap; reform package; Value-added tax; Corporate income tax; Productivity; Middle East; North Africa; East Africa; Europe; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
United Kingdom: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Kingdom finds that the main factors behind the slowdown include weak productivity growth, labor market slack, and low inflation. Recent labor market developments in the United Kingdom appear to point to disconnect between unemployment and wages. Although the unemployment rate has fallen to a 40-year low, wage growth continues to growth at a subdued pace. The analysis in this paper suggests that this puzzle is explained by persistent weak productivity growth and well-anchored inflation expectations, as well as by greater effective labor market slack than suggested by the headline unemployment rate. Broader measures of underemployment—accounting for involuntary part-time unemployment, inactive and self-employed people seeking regular jobs—suggest that slack in the labor market was higher than implied by the unemployment rate in recent years. Persistent tightness of the labor market should prompt some firming of wage growth in the coming year, everything else equal. A mild increase in unit labor costs would help bring domestically generated inflation in line with the inflation target.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; wage; productivity growth; labor market; wage pressure; labor market condition; wage dynamics; frontier firm; labor market slack; Wages; Labor markets; Productivity; Unemployment rate; Self-employment; Global