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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper examines scope for improving Iceland’s fiscal framework. Iceland’s fiscal framework provides for a forward-looking exercise in consolidated fiscal planning. The Icelandic fiscal framework shares most elements of successful fiscal frameworks but would benefit from more structured guidance in dealing with cyclical fluctuations. It is backed by a firm legal basis that reflects political support for the fiscal policy objectives, covers the consolidated general government, and is based on sound accounting practices and budget management arrangements. The current parameters of the policy rules have a bias to reduce net public debt and gradually build fiscal space to deal with adverse shocks to economic activity. Adding a primary structural balance rule to the framework would ensure a countercyclical fiscal policy but would add significant complexity. Once the net public debt reaches a socially desirable level, the fiscal rule parameters may be modified to keep net public debt fluctuating around that level.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; interest rate; countercyclical fiscal policy; disp-formula id; fiscal policy statement; spending ratio; primary spending; Fiscal rules; Output gap; Fiscal stance; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues Paper
International Monetary Fund
This selected issues paper on Iceland reports that since mid-2009, Iceland has undergone a heavily frontloaded fiscal consolidation program to bring government finances to a sustainable level. To maintain the adjustment gains achieved during the last 2½ years, the authorities have started drafting a new organic budget law, which would codify recent reforms in the budget framework and introduce principles for fiscal policymaking. Iceland’s economy is exposed to adverse shocks. The external outlook continues to pose challenges, as key trading partners face weak growth prospects.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; monetary policy; exchange rate; expenditure growth; inflation expectation; inflation targeting framework; growth limit; monetary policy framework; Inflation; Fiscal stance; Inflation targeting; Output gap; Global; Europe
Cover IMF Working Papers
Fiscal Policy During Absorption Cycles
Mr. Ferhan Salman
and
Miss Gabriela Dobrescu
Domestic absorption cycles are relevant in assessment and design of fiscal policies. Our cross-country analysis covers 59 advanced and emerging countries for the 1990-2009 period. We show that ignoring domestic absorption cycles leads to biased fiscal stance indicators, for both advanced and emerging economies, by up to 1.5 percent of GDP. The estimates of fiscal policy reaction functions indicate that absorption booms are associated with pro-cyclical fiscal policy. We tackle the endogeneity problem in reactions functions through stripping the cyclical component of the fiscal aggregates. We also find that simple filtering methods in the computation of absorption gaps perform as better as indirect methods of estimating trade balance gaps and stripping of output gaps.
Keywords:
WP; fiscal policy; structural fiscal balance; domestic absorption; output gap; fiscal reaction function; reaction function; fiscal policy behavior; absorption gap; asset price cycle; fiscal policy reaction; fiscal policy stance; Fiscal stance; Macro-fiscal analysis; Current account; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Tax Revenue Response to the Business Cycle
Ms. Cemile Sancak
,
Jing Xing
, and
Ricardo Velloso
This paper examines tax revenue during the business cycle by estimating the relationship between tax revenue efficiency and the output gap. We find a positive and significant relationship between these variables; results are consistent for quarterly and annual data, and across advanced and developing economies. We also find that a worsening (improvement) in the VAT C-efficiency is driven by shifts in consumption patterns and changes in tax evasion during contractions (expansions). A key implication is that, particularly during major economic booms and downturns, policy makers should look beyond simple, long-run revenue elasticities and incorporate into their analysis the effects of the economic cycle on tax revenue efficiency.
Keywords:
WP; tax revenue; output gap coefficient; tax revenue forecasting; business cycle; tax revenue efficiency; C-efficiency; VAT elasticity; VAT C-efficiency; estimation result; output gap variable; Value-added tax; Output gap; Tax efficiency; Consumption; Baltics
Cover IMF Working Papers
International R&D Spillovers and Institutions
Mr. Willy A Hoffmaister
,
Mr. David T. Coe
, and
Mr. Elhanan Helpman
The empirical analysis in "International R&D Spillovers" (Coe and Helpman, 1995) is first revisited by applying modern panel cointegration estimation techniques to an expanded data set that we have constructed for the purpose of this study. The new estimates confirm the key results reported in Coe and Helpman about the impact of domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks on TFP. In addition, we show that domestic and foreign R&D capital stocks have measurable impacts on TFP even after controlling for the impact of human capital. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to include institutional variables, such as legal origin and patent protection, in order to allow for parameter heterogeneity based on a country's institutional characteristics. The results suggest that institutional differences are important determinants of total factor productivity and that they impact the degree of R&D spillovers.
Keywords:
WP; R&D capital; estimation technique; group estimates give; time series
Cover IMF Working Papers
Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland
Ms. Keiko Honjo
and
Mr. Benjamin L Hunt
This paper provides some empirical estimates on how tightly is it feasible to control inflation in a very small open economy such as Iceland. Estimated macroeconomic models of Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States are used to derive efficient monetary policy frontiers that trace out the locus of the lowest combinations of inflation and output variability that are achievable under a range of alternative monetary policy rules. These frontiers illustrate that inflation stabilization is more challenging in Iceland than in other industrial countries primarily because of the relative magnitudes of the economic shocks.
Keywords:
WP; inflation-output variability trade-off
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund
Given its small size and openness, the Icelandic economy has been subject to large shocks. Systematic coordination of monetary and fiscal policy, however, could help improve the inflation-output variability trade-off. The fiscal rule is designed to simultaneously ensure a consistently countercyclical fiscal stance and achieve a stable public debt target. The parameter values of the model are estimated from the quarterly data using a Bayesian technique. To assess how the introduction of the fiscal policy changes the inflation-output variability trade-off in Iceland, the paper compares the efficiency policy frontiers.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; reaction function; inflation-output variability trade-off; countercyclical fiscal policy; output-inflation variability tradeoff; Icelandic bank; Credit risk; Stocks; Loans; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Recent Economic Developments
International Monetary Fund
This paper reviews economic developments in Iceland during 1990–96. It analyzes the origins of the current economic expansion associated with a swing in the current account and in emerging inflation pressure. Three driving forces are emphasized: the positive supply shock affecting the fisheries; the expansion of the power intensive industry; and brisk increases in real wages over the past two years (1995–96). The paper highlights that the main sources of upside risks comprise the likely construction of a new aluminum smelter.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; demand; market; investment goods; consumer price inflation; HP filter; current account sustainability; asset price development; saving rate; tax system; saving-investment imbalance; Current account; Output gap; Personal income tax; Current account imbalances; Europe; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Iceland: Statistical Appendix
International Monetary Fund
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; net; Iceland; long-term debt; central bank of Iceland; Iceland inflation; gross investment; Iceland composition; Iceland output; Exports; Public sector; Consumption; Output gap; Eastern Europe; Western Europe