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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Working Papers
The Future of Oil: Geology Versus Technology
Ms. Marcelle Chauvet
,
Mr. Jack G. Selody
,
Mr. Douglas Laxton
,
Mr. Michael Kumhof
,
Mr. Jaromir Benes
,
Mr. Ondrej Kamenik
, and
Susanna Mursula
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
Keywords:
WP; oil price; supply shock; Oil prices; exhaustible resources; fossil fuels; oil depletion; Hubbert’s Peak; Bayesian econometrics; price elasticity; price mechanism; elasticities of demand and supply; cost share; price effect; price channel; long-run price elasticities of oil demand and supply; adjustment cost; share of energy; oil price growth rate; price elasticities of oil demand and supply; price elasticities of demand and supply; Oil; Oil production; Output gap; Inflation; Global
Cover IMF Survey
Le FMI aide l’Iraq à préparer la stabilisation de l’économie et l’allégement de la dette
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
L’édition web du Bulletin du FMI est mise à jour plusieurs fois par semaine et contient de nombreux articles sur des questions de politique générale et de politique économique d'actualité. Accédez aux dernières recherches du FMI, lisez des interviews et écoutez des podcasts proposés par les principaux économistes du FMI sur des questions importantes de l'économie mondiale. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; IMF's resource; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
El apoyo del FMI a Iraq prepara el camino para estabilizar la economía y aliviar la deuda
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
La edición en Internet del Boletín del FMI, que se actualiza varias veces a la semana, contiene numerosos artículos sobre temas de actualidad en el ámbito de las políticas y la economía. Consulte las últimas investigaciones del FMI, lea entrevistas y escuche podcasts de los principales economistas del FMI sobre importantes temas relacionados con la economía mundial. www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/home.aspx
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; IMF's resource; Rodrigo de Rato
Cover IMF Survey
IMF Survey, Volume 33, Issue 19
International Monetary Fund. External Relations Dept.
To help Iraq stabilize its economy and restructure its massive debt, the IMF in late September approved $436.3 million in Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance. This financing lends support to prudent monetary and fiscal policies and is designed to bolster institutional capacity and potentially lay the basis for a more ambitious economic program later next year. Two senior staff in the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department—Lorenzo Perez, Senior Advisor, and Adam Bennett, Division Chief—talk with Sheila Meehan of the IMF Survey about Iraq’s economic prospects and the IMF’s recently released staff report.
Keywords:
SV; IMF Concludes; IMF's resource; Rodrigo de Rato; IMF executive board reviews poverty reduction strategy paper; growth Facility; fund Facility; IMF purchase; Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP); Hedge funds; Public investment spending; Current account deficits; Productivity; Global; Middle East; Europe; Asia and Pacific; North Africa; North America; Sub-Saharan Africa; East Africa