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Business and Economics > Production and Operations Management

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Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Philippines: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
This Selected Issues paper focuses on potential growth and demographic dividend in Philippines. Output and employment in the Philippines were severely impacted by the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic. While the Philippines recovered strongly after the pandemic, there is some evidence of scarring in output, and labor productivity remains below pre-pandemic trends. A comparison between the Philippines and peer countries along structural areas key to supporting higher growth can inform reform efforts to support higher growth. Strengthening anti-corruption efforts, while enhancing the legal system, regulatory quality, and improving the rule of law would support business certainty. At a structural level, the Philippines is on the cusp of a demographic transition but must close important structural gaps to take advantage of this potential dividend and boost growth. Under current policy settings, potential growth projections are estimated to be between 6.0–6.3 percent in the medium term. An upside scenario, which assumes ambitious and well-sequenced structural reforms, shows that growth could reach 7.0–7.5 percent over a longer time horizon.
Keywords:
supply and demand inflation decomposition; supply and demand food inflation decomposition; inflation volatility; inflation expectation; services inflation decomposition; supply and demand goods inflation decomposition; Inflation; Total factor productivity; Human capital; Labor productivity; Global; Asia and Pacific
Cover IMF Working Papers
Can Mobile Technologies Enhance Productivity? A Structural Model and Evidence from Benin Food Suppliers
Pierre Nguimkeu
and
Cedric I Okou
This paper analyzes the drivers of digital technologies adoption and how it affects the productivity of small scale businesses in Africa. We use data collected from two semi-rural markets in Benin, where grains and legumes are key staple foods and one-third of the population has internet access. We develop a structural model to rationalize digital technologies adoption—defined as the use of mobile broadband internet connection through smartphones—as well as usage patterns and outcomes observed in the data. The model’s implications are empirically tested using both reduced-form and structural maximum likelihood estimations. We find that younger, wealthier, more educated grains and legumes suppliers and those closely surrounded by other users are more likely to adopt digital technologies. Adopters perform 4-5 more business transactions each month than non-adopters on average, suggesting that digital technologies adoption could raise the monthly frequency and amounts of trades by up to 50%. Most adopters are women, but their productivity gains are lower than their male counterparts. Counterfactual policy simulations with the estimated model suggest that upgrading the broadband internet quality yields the largest improvement in adoption rate and productivity gains, while reducing its cost for a given connection quality only has a moderate effect. Improving access to credit only increases the adoption rate of constrained suppliers.
Keywords:
Digital Technology Adoption; Food Supply; Counterfactual Analysis; productivity gain; legumes supplier; adoption rate; broadband internet quality; Productivity; Agricultural commodities; Financial inclusion; Africa
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Republic of Slovenia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper focuses on boosting productivity in Slovenia. Slovenia’s ageing population sets a constraint on the contribution of labor to gross domestic product in the end.Only achieve sustained increases in income and living standards can, therefore, through investment in physical and human capital and, more importantly, through enhancing productivity, historically the key growth driver. This paper summarizes historical trends in growth and productivity in Slovenia, examines the country’s strengths and weaknesses in terms of key factors affecting productivity identified in the literature. Since the scope for future labor contributions to growth in Slovenia is limited for demographic reasons—apart from further improvements to labor quality—the focus of economic growth policies should be on reinvigorating private investment, which has been low over the past decade, and pursuing labor and product market reforms that boost total factor productivity growth.
Keywords:
productivity trend; firm leverage; labor market indicator; I. shift share methodology; EU growth composition; Productivity; Total factor productivity; Labor force; Private investment; Europe; Central and Eastern Europe; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Why U.S. Immigration Matters for the Global Advancement of Science
Ruchir Agarwal
,
Patrick Gaulé
, and
Geoff Smith
This paper studies the impact of U.S. immigration barriers on global knowledge production. We present four key findings. First, among Nobel Prize winners and Fields Medalists, migrants to the U.S. play a central role in the global knowledge network—representing 20-33% of the frontier knowledge producers. Second, using novel survey data and hand-curated life-histories of International Math Olympiad (IMO) medalists, we show that migrants to the U.S. are up to six times more productive than migrants to other countries—even after accounting for talent during one’s teenage years. Third, financing costs are a key factor preventing foreign talent from migrating abroad to pursue their dream careers, particularly for talent from developing countries. Fourth, certain ‘push’ incentives that reduce immigration barriers—by addressing financing constraints for top foreign talent—could increase the global scientific output of future cohorts by 42 percent. We concludeby discussing policy options for the U.S. and the global scientific community.
Keywords:
Immigration; Science; Talent; Universities; WP; IMO medalist; migrants to the U.S.; IMO participant; productivity regression; IMO point; Migration; Productivity; Income; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Reinvigorating Growth in Belize
Dmitry Vasilyev
In the 1990s and early 2000s, Belize grew faster than its regional peers. By the mid-2000s, however, economic growth had slowed down to the regional average. A vicious circle of low growth and increasing public debt has been clouding Belize’s outlook. This paper applies a growth diagnostic approach based on the Hausmann-Rodrik-Velasco framework to investigate the main growth constraints and opportunities for higher growth in Belize. Improvements in access to finance and in the business climate could unlock Belize’s strengths.
Keywords:
WP; Belize; economy; cost; goods export; growth diagnostics; development policies; structural transformation; peer economy; growth performance; export diversification index; Belize's growth; diversification indicator; tourism industry; Total factor productivity; Income; Tourism; Caribbean; Central America
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Spain: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper on Spain focuses on differences in regional productivity. Recent studies of income convergence among Spanish regions suggest that the convergence has been slow since 1980 reflecting persistent regional disparities in total factor productivity. The empirical analysis—employing stochastic frontier models—finds that, among other factors, differences in regions’ skills mismatch and technology absorption capacity could be behind the disparities. A benchmarking exercise demonstrates significant potential growth benefits from policy measures that would bring regions closer to the frontier. Regional income disparities—driven by differences in total factor productivity (TFP) and unemployment—while not large compared with European peers, have been persistent in recent years. The economy’s overall productivity frontier moved inward overtime, but this trend has slowed down after the crisis. The inward shift of the production frontier could be one of the explanations for the negative TFP growth observed before the crisis. Active labor market policies at the regional level could also work toward addressing skills mismatch and education outcomes.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; production frontier; IMF staff calculation; total factor productivity disparity; TFP difference; labor force; TFP growth; productivity growth; Total factor productivity; Productivity; Personal income; Human capital; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Georgia: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
This Selected Issues paper assesses macroeconomic and structural reforms in Georgia. The government’s reform package includes a fiscal policy within a declining deficit path which intends to incentivize private investment, a scaling up of public investment, improvement in government’s efficiency, and an education reform. Based on modeling analysis, the implementation of this package will provide significant benefits to the economy. Over the long term, real GDP is estimated to be about 5 percent higher than in the baseline and—in the path toward the new equilibrium—annual growth about 0.7 percentage points higher over the medium term. The education reform has sizeable effects, but they only come into effect in the long term.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; Georgia; product; GDP; export product diversification; GDP growth; monetary policy stance; National bank of Georgia; productivity growth; Labor markets; Employment; Exports; Export diversification; Global
Cover IMF Working Papers
Women Are Key for Future Growth: Evidence from Canada
Bengt Petersson
,
Rodrigo Mariscal
, and
Kotaro Ishi
How important are female workers for economic growth? This paper presents empirical evidence that an increase in female labor force participation is positively associated with labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 10 Canadian provinces over 1990–2015, we found that a 1 percentage point increase in the labor force participation among women with high educational attainment would raise Canada’s overall labor productivity growth by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage point a year. This suggests that if the current gap of 7 percentage points between male and female labor force participation with high educational attainment were eliminated, the level of real GDP could be about 4 percent higher today. The government has appropriately stepped up its efforts to improve gender equality, as part of its growth strategy. In particular, the government’s plan to expand access to affordable child care is a positive step. However, we argue that to maximize the policy outcome given a budget constraint, provision of subsidized child care—including publicly funded child care spaces—should be better targeted to working parents.
Keywords:
WP; labor force; parental leave; labor market; federal government; Canada; female participation; labor productivity; benefit system; taxation; productivity growth; Canada child benefit program; OECD economy; employment insurance; child care fee; assistance program; Women; Labor force participation; Global
Cover IMF Staff Country Reports
Russian Federation: Selected Issues
International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
This Selected Issues paper describes structural reform policies in Russia in the last 15 years. There is evidence of a gradual convergence of Russia’s performance to that of more advanced economies, though significant gaps remain. Progress in Russia’s global competitiveness index indicators during the past 10 years has been generally stronger for those indicators in which Russia’s performance was comparatively weaker in 2006. The authorities’ view that oil prices will be persistently low and a real exchange rate more aligned to fundamentals should serve as incentives to build a less oil-dependent growth model. Clear targets, carefully sequenced actions, appropriate accountability, and frequent monitoring could help advance reforms.
Keywords:
ISCR; CR; firm; Russia; GCI indicator; policy action; level productivity; low-productivity firm; OECD country; Productivity; Oil prices; Competition; Global
Cover Breaking the Oil Spell
Breaking the Oil Spell
The Gulf Falcons' Path to Diversification
Reda Cherif
,
Fuad Hasanov
, and
Min Zhu

Abstract

The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification in the Middle East and North Africa and the complex choices policymakers face. It brings together the views of academics and policymakers to offer practical advice for future efforts to increase productivity growth.

Keywords:
BOOK; industry; country; GCC country; IMF's Middle East Center for Economics and Finance; economy; oil exporter; establishment of the CEF; natural resource boom; lessons Korea; Productivity; Oil; Exports; Global; East Asia; Middle East; Southeast Asia; North Africa; private sector; value chain; government failure; Manufacturing